stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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NHC will likely start talking about these features at the 5pm . Sooner if the models prove correct.
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Jara
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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in the11:30 the said they are scheduled to send a flight into the system by the islands this afternoon. they also mention the area ne of florida. they mention that both may become better organized in the near term.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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hmm.. neither feature looks really great right now... guess they're expecting them to persist or something, since has them as invests.
92L has an offcenter anticyclone aloft and a decent convergence line oriented sw/ne on the northern side. oddly it's biggest detractor is the slow movement and failure to stay linked with the high aloft. convection is spotty and the low at the surface is very weak. think the recon at this point is a tad unnecessary. this one clearly falls short of the deep convection requirements the guys slap onto every potential system. with the persistent weakness off the east coast, it would have to migrate further westward to sneak underneath--a short term development would likely recurve out of the caribbean.
93L is nothing right now. several of the globals are closing an upper low off at the base of the east coast trough and splitting it back westward. should continue to aid turning at lower levels and keep a weak low focused underneath along the decaying frontal trough in the western atlantic. globals generally show enough of a weakness remaining affixed to the east coast that anything that might develop would just lift out northward, slowly. also perhaps the potential for a stalled system.
i wouldn't chalk either system up to 50/50 right now. need to see more persistance before either begins to look like a serious development threat.
HF 1618z13august
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lowtax
Unregistered
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Thats an excellent evaluation of the situation HF.I will say nothing else in regards to this. I would give it 50/50 aswell.
I believe the feature east of florida/ga bears watching. Its looks like a break off from the frontal system.
Time will tell. And it is such a quiet season this year with the only systems forming fighting uphill battles against unfavorable conditions. But things could change and a Re-run of the 5 terrible weeks of 2004 could come at any time.
Never forget the fantastic four CFIJ which ruined an otherwise quiet season. 
Charley, , , Jeanne.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Carribean disturbance is very weak and actual weak circulation is well east of the convection....no reason to send recon into that.....tomorrow maybe a recon east of the Cape by a couple hundred miles....but hard to say what will develop....part of energy will cross florida in the next day or 2 and move into the gulf and might develop heading towards southern TX and northern Mex.....and another piece will be traped off the SE coast as it moves N then back south missing a trough coming off the east coast mid week....
for now...everything is a wait and see............just like the whole season....pressures remain very high everywhere.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i am a little stunned an recon plan of the day.. Note this afternoon flight is requested if "RESOURCES PERMITTING"... which i think there is a plane down in the islands still. Also looking at the recon plan of the day. Seems they give this area a good chance of Development?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
Just like scott posted... the Low at the surface is visible well east of the islands and convection... with shear above it....here's 1km sat VIS
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 13 2006 01:48 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Only real system of intrest is the one forming later tonight into Monday east of Florida.....This pattern with overall pressures lower (ala trough) was seen by me last week as a area of intrest. I said that it will possibly impact Florida or the Se coast to the Carloinas if anything did develop..... The other area just east of the carribean will desolve in 12-24hrs. Another area of intrests the models like is a piece of energy from trough moving into the gulf...hard to say if its the system forming from above or just a branch off of the trough also.
Anyways..this system has the best chance of becoming Debby by later Monday or into Tuesday...it has warm SSTs...enough moisture for development..low enough pressures.....just only windshear for now...but I expect that to lessen some in the next couple of days as a ridge builds to its N......also with the ridge...I expect whatever nw path it takes in the next couple of days to push it back to the S and W later in the week .....for now...its the best chance at developing...models are beginning to pick up on it...but landfall and path is still uncertain as we dont have a center and ridge strength is unknown in 72hrs.
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