MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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In five weeks the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins.
Now is a great time to check your emergency supply lists. Throw out old/ expired items. And prepare for 72 hours without power water and telephone services.
Once you've checked everything you can sit back and try to relax with everyone here.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1st-November 30th, 2007. And we will be around to track it. Improvements to the site will come this year as the season nears its peak.
Thanks everyone for the help in 2006!
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL-Monteray (Nice Tracking Maps, Invest, and Satellite Images)
Alternate -Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Buoy Data, QuikScat oceanic wind data, Dvorak Estimates , TAFB/TPC Analysis
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
FSU: CMC, , , , UKMET, ; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
NCEP models NAM, , WW3, NGM
Other commentary from Independentwx, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update, Accuweather/Joe Bastardi & etc. Tropical Outlook Videos on Yahoo, Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, WeatherXP (Rich B.), Hurricane City, mpittweather, WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), NWHHC, Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , StormPulse (Matthew Wensing),
Even more on the links page.
Edited by danielw (Fri Apr 27 2007 03:38 AM)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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you folks that have been watching the evolution of the current warm event have probably noticed how it peaked out early in the winter and how much the coverage of the positive SST anomalies in the pacific has dwindled. just lately a cool patch has started east of the dateline and is working its way westward. not a definite signal, but often enough when these things show up we'll end up in a la nina before the year is out. the atlantic is quite warm still, moreso to the east... but the gulf stream is also looking very charged. do not be surprised if the pacific cools off this year and the atlantic stays in overdrive.
HF 0232z19february
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Hurricane45
Unregistered
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The 2006/07 El Niño has ended. All the main indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Niño thresholds for about a month now. The Trade Winds have mostly been close to or somewhat stronger than normal since December, the has been neutral for three of the past four months and central-western Pacific cloudiness is close to average. Computer models indicate further cooling in the Pacific, with a La Niña not out of the question (see third paragraph).
What does this mean for Australia? Firstly, while the end of the El Niño would normally be associated with a return to more normal rainfall patterns, it should not be seen as a precursor to drought-breaking rains. This particularly applies to water supplies in parts of eastern and southern Australia, which in some instances require several years of healthy rainfalls to recover to a satisfactory level. Nonetheless, we can be cautiously optimistic that there will be a general easing of dry conditions in drought-affected areas over the next one to two seasons.
A La Niña in 2007?
The 2006/07 El Niño has ended. All the main indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Niño thresholds for about a month now. The Trade Winds have mostly been close to or somewhat stronger than normal since December, the has been neutral for three of the past four months and central-western Pacific cloudiness is close to average. Computer models indicate further cooling in the Pacific, with a La Niña not out of the question (see third paragraph). and (c) a large pool of cold sub-surface water has developed in the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña events are generally associated with wetter than normal conditions across much of the eastern half of the country from about autumn.
ENSO UPDATE
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Really not a surprise...Neutral appears to be in place for the first half of the season followed by a possible La Nina.
PS! Forgot to login in my first post Sorry about that.
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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so what exactly does that mean for us down here in east central florida. a very active season or just rainy?
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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It indicates a quite active season in the makings in 2007.Steering currents will be key which determine which areas see activity this season.Overall everything is indicateing an active season number wise so we'll have to see how all this shapes up in the next 3-4 months.
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Upper-level winds also will have something to do with what happens. Last year, high wind shear and strong upper-level lows helped keep things from popping. No telling yet if those will be factors this year.
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Well... El nino causes more shear and La Nina causes less shear.. so it could be quiet interesting about the strength of these storms in a few months
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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A reminder to the old and the many new users... please make sure to place your post in the proper forum this season. A review of the site rules may be a good idea for all of us before we get into the season. June 1 will be here before we know it and it is my hope we do not have to spend this season moving posts placed in the incorrect Forum and so forth...
Thanks All!
Coop RULES
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Feb 23 2007 09:34 AM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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I'm sure that most everyone has caught the very latest NOAA/CPC forecast,
but in case you've just missed it - From 2/28 -
"LA NIÑA MAY SOON ARRIVE"
Based on CPC, during the heart of the season we may be thick in a Nina phase.
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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The local papers are all writing about the demise of El Nino. It will be interesting to hear what the new predictions for 2007 are.
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 94
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The last Neutral season was 2005, and the last La Nina season was 2004, so it could be an interesting year.
Now the big factor is where is the Bermuda high going to set up?
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Hopefully out in Africa. After 2005. I don't want to see a depression 1000 miles near me. 
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Good evening,
IRI'S update concludes that this la Nina will be a weak one at best with a 60% of Neutral conditions developing by mid-2007.
Here's a part of there's discussion.
While many of the features in the tropical Pacific air-sea system are consistent with initiation of La Niña conditions -- shallow thermocline in the east, emergence of cold SST anomalies, and easterly wind anomalies -- considerable uncertainty remains over whether such conditions will lead to the growth of a La Niña event. For one thing, the is closest to the equator at this time of the year, leading to weaker winds, and thus a weaker connection between subsurface and surface conditions. Still, the trend is currently toward cooling, and the cold/shallow subsurface anomalies necessary for further development of La Niña conditions exist. Thus there is a finite possibility that the system may reach La Niña conditions within the next several months. Probabilities initially favor -neutral conditions, but by mid-2007 the forecast suggests that weak La Niña conditions are more likely.
A re-emergence of El Niño conditions is very unlikely likely, with probabilities not exceeding 10% throughout the forecast period. <strong>There is an approximately 60% likelihood for -neutral conditions to start, with a 35% probability for La Niña conditions. By mid-2007, the probabilities for La Niña grow to 50%</strong>
More Here
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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gfs has a funny cut-off type low developing east of the bahamas early next week. it doesn't have a tropical profile, but within a large upper low could get one of those weird hybrid looks to it, should recent runs prove accurate. probably will be under such upper westerlies that it can't even do that. just the same, can't get much closer to a system in march (sans the 1908 march hurricane).
HF 0500z21march
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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18Z seems to keep insisting on development in about a week!Something to watch?Maybe.
00Z continues with development but in a weaker state.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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12Z models show something trying to form, but racing off to the NE rapidly. If it's going to have a prayer, it'll have to get cut off and simmer, which won't happen. something to peek at though...
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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intersting runs...and runs...something to watch ... nothing to be worried about.... just something to watch.... one things for sure.. the waters off of Florida...both sides.. are warming... thanks to the high pressure thats been sticking and going to stick around.... looks like it might be an intersting season... not to far off
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Mar 22 2007 03:48 AM)
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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according to the 06 run I saw, it's not there! is doing the cha cha cha once again, it will probably return in the next run most likely, we'll have to see what happens in the future.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Hey guys! Hopefully now I can actually be around this year. Obviously the rest of the '05 season was a blur and then last hurricane season I was knee deep for most of it re-building the house and THANKFULLY it was quiet!! Here's a little update as to how things are going:
Well after a miserable 18 months, things are finally looking up. Most of the work to my house is done (we moved back in on June 22, 2006) and have spent a lot of time gardening, replacing things outside for the kids, re-soding the lawn and things of that nature since then. We're acutally back into a livable routine and have probably 60% of the people back on our street. Still the damage is done.......we just finally got Burger King and Popeye's and McDonald's has been open the longest about 5 months now I guess. Still, other than that and local mom and pop restaurants that's the bulk of the business that has returned. Home Depot came back of course, and is making about $1 million a day! No Wal-Mart, no Sears, no K-Mart, nothing like that.....they've all deserted us. It make things a little harder, but mostly depressing. Now on to the good news. I'd say roughly 22,000-25,000 of the 67,000 residents here in St. Bernard are back for good. Another 5,000-10,000 are probably working on their homes and living eslewhere for now. I think we will be back to around 50% of the pre-Katrina population by the two year mark. It would be even faster if the state could get the money to the people. The school enrollment is amazing.
Pre-Katrina: 8,800
Re-opened AMAZINGLY in November 2005 only 11 weeks after : 334
December 2005: 640
February 2006: 1700
May 2006: 2350
August 2006: 3000+
There are now some 3,800 students back and they fully expect 4,500 to 5,000 by the opening of the 2007-08 school year in August. The super of the schools, a lady that was there when I was in school won the JFK Profiles in Courage Award for basically telling FEMA to go fly a kite and getting a school open 11 weeks after it was under 11 feet of water from . My daughter goes to elementary school in a high school campus with 68 classrooms that weren't enough. They added 9 trailers with 8 classrooms each and they have 2,100 kids there. It's really heart-warming the school situation.
Anyway, enough of my rambling about stuff most of you all don't care about anyway! Maybe if anyone gives a hoot I will post the video of the re-building of my home. It's pretty cool, and goes from what it looked like when we pulled up for the first time to the re-building stage, to what it looks like now. I just need to figure out how to compress it!!
Hope to see you guys a lot on here this season talking about how no one is in DANGER AT ALL!!! 
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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