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90L crossing over Florida with flooding rains, strong winds and brief tornadoes/spouts. Next week eyes turn to W Gulf in active June pattern
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 289 (Idalia) , Major: 289 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 289 (Idalia) Major: 289 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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allan
Weather Master


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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea [Re: cieldumort]
      #74655 - Wed May 09 2007 01:14 PM

OK so we will probably have Subtropical Storm Andrea at 11 a.m. I'm pretty sure I will be under a tropical storm warning lol.. the smoke here is so heavy right now thanks to (Andrea)

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


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Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea [Re: allan]
      #74656 - Wed May 09 2007 01:17 PM

Yea allan it looks that way but theres really no deep convection near the center so in reality this is still cold core but the transition to a sun-tropical storm has been under way and avisories should begin at 11am if the present trend continues.Thats if.

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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: MikeC]
      #74658 - Wed May 09 2007 01:50 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc...-791W.100pc.jpg

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
ANDREA [Re: cieldumort]
      #74659 - Wed May 09 2007 01:53 PM

Navy site now says 01ANDREA

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


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Posts: 151
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: dem05]
      #74660 - Wed May 09 2007 01:55 PM

Quote:

Well, we talked a whole lot about African Dust last year... Morning visible shows 90L is sucking up one heck of a lot of smoke from across the Florida Penninsula...Pretty amazing view actually.





This morning the sky is blue in New Smyrna Beach, and there is a strong smell of smoke for the second day in a row.

Andrea does look a little better organized (at least to the newbie I am), in particular in the west side of it, but the core does not seem to have an organized eye. Is my observation correct? If yes, what does this mean?

(Pam - do you have as much smoke in Port Orange as we do here?)

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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole

Edited by vineyardsaker (Wed May 09 2007 01:56 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical? [Re: cieldumort]
      #74661 - Wed May 09 2007 01:59 PM

If the models are correct it could be great news for those people living in FL and GA that have been fighting wild fires. Even better news if some how it can get in the GOM and merge with a frontal boundary and bring the central gulfcoast some rain




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nl
Storm Tracker


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Loc: nsb,fl
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #74662 - Wed May 09 2007 02:02 PM

yeah im in new smyrna beach to and and is bad with the smoke but i think the smoke is making her stronger. i have been saying andrea for like 2 days now and i was right. sorry guys i havent been on in a while. im so excited about this year's season. this is just the taste of the medicine we are about to get this year. did you see all the tropical waves coming off of africa already and clark thank you for the advise about where to goto school for my meteorology degree last yr. i took your advice about that and im transferring from dbcc to florida institution of technology for my meteorology degree. go andrea!

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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: nl]
      #74664 - Wed May 09 2007 02:06 PM

The models certainly don't agree with each other. They are all over the board.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: MadDog]
      #74666 - Wed May 09 2007 02:17 PM

The last time we had a named storm in May was back in 1981.It was Arlene and it had a short life(May 6-9).So we are seeing something rare indeed.We can only hope it will help with the fires.Right now of course it is making them worse with all wind and little or no rain.This is just to early for all this.
p.s. The smoke and smell were bad here in Ft Laud. last night and they are calling for the same this evening.

Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed May 09 2007 02:21 PM)


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


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Posts: 151
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: nl]
      #74667 - Wed May 09 2007 02:18 PM

Quote:

did you see all the tropical waves coming off of africa already




nope. being a noob at all this (-: I moved from *Switzerland* for crying out loud! :-) . were do you look that stuff up?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole


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AdrianInFlorida
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 12
Loc: Indialantic, FL
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: nl]
      #74668 - Wed May 09 2007 02:19 PM

Quote:

yeah im in new smyrna beach to and and is bad with the smoke but i think the smoke is making her stronger. i have been saying andrea for like 2 days now and i was right. sorry guys i havent been on in a while. im so excited about this year's season. this is just the taste of the medicine we are about to get this year. did you see all the tropical waves coming off of africa already and clark thank you for the advise about where to goto school for my meteorology degree last yr. i took your advice about that and im transferring from dbcc to florida institution of technology for my meteorology degree. go andrea!


I live on the coast, but work in Orlando, and the smoke inland is just horrible. Hopefully some of the rain that's spinning offshore will get in and start to do it's thing.

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


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Posts: 151
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: AdrianInFlorida]
      #74669 - Wed May 09 2007 02:23 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Hopefully some of the rain that's spinning offshore will get in and start to do it's thing.




I am not sure this is in the making. The rotation would bring the winds from Andrea over land before it gets to the Florida coast, so this just might be - in my totally un-informed wild guess - a dry event

Can the more knowledgable forumites share their opinion with us: will Florida finally get some good rain?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole


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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: It's trying, it really is.... [Re: AdrianInFlorida]
      #74671 - Wed May 09 2007 02:27 PM

Thankfully the smoke in coastal sections of Spring Hill isn't like it was yesterday morning. The wind has shifted and is pushing the smoke to inland counties (sorry guys).

They do have rain chances going up to 40% by Friday and keeping around 30% chance in the forecast for the next 7 days. Slowly we are moving toward our rainy season.

Dewpoints have risen nearly 20° since yesterday morning here an indication that the atmosphere is working up toward good things we hope, esp. for northern Fla. and southern Georgia


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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interesting obs on smoke and the storm [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #74672 - Wed May 09 2007 02:38 PM

very interesting, wondering if the smoke did or does have any effect on the development

can she get ash from the georgia fire in her circulation and how different would that be than african dust

interesting, thanks for mentioning it here

we will have to watch andrea and see

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: interesting obs on smoke and the storm [Re: LoisCane]
      #74673 - Wed May 09 2007 02:47 PM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 150 MILES
...240 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALONG THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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