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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
20.3N 93.2W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1001mb
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Nnw at 7 mph
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Bloodstar
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now Barry on the Navy site [Re: Steve]
      #75234 - Fri Jun 01 2007 08:38 PM

Well,

I'll do a minor bit of crow eating, as i really didn't expect it to spin up as well as it has. though i think the LLC didn't form until early this morning, and it's still a marginal call, with the very lopsided convection and exposed LLC. But it's better to be safe than sorry with a storm heading to the coast. and particularly one that appears to be stregthening rather than steady state or weakening.

So, now what? I think all bets are off, it could make it to a weak catagory one, but more likely to make it up to about 60 MPH before landfall, simply because it won't have the organization to take advantage of the time it will have. 36 hours maybe till landfall as it's heading north at a steady clip. But even so, it'll be a rain even to florida and hopefully put a damper on the fires that have been burning in south georgia.

Hopefully we'll have another similar storm in a couple of weeks to really kick the drought out for a while.

But take the rain while we can. and that's all this should be.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Steve
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Re: now Barry on the Navy site [Re: Bloodstar]
      #75236 - Fri Jun 01 2007 08:38 PM

It's official.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/012036.shtml

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #75237 - Fri Jun 01 2007 08:39 PM

NRL now shows Barry at 45 mph and 1000 mb

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Steve
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: Rabbit]
      #75241 - Fri Jun 01 2007 08:45 PM

>>and it's still a marginal call, with the very lopsided convection and exposed LLC.

But lopsided convection is often the hallmark of June systems. They butt up against shear simply based on weather patterns. They're going to be lopsided. June and late October through November are often transitional months. It's just the nature of the beast at that time. You know the old saying that if it walks like a duck...

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Storm Cooper
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: Steve]
      #75242 - Fri Jun 01 2007 08:53 PM

The posting is becoming a bit silly in this Thread. The only topic that should be in the Thread is about the active (Atlantic) system. There is no need to post a copy of every advisory, etc. All that info is on the Main Page. Copy some of the info to support a post you are making if you wish.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Storm Hunter
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: Steve]
      #75243 - Fri Jun 01 2007 08:53 PM

based on the last few vis scans on sat, there appears that the center is trying to tuck underneath some new storms that a flaring on the west to northwest side. question is, will the shear blow off the tops when the storms get growing... i think so....

Agree that the overall movement has been the same for a couple of hours now...

This just came out for the keys, thought it was interesting..
AT 431 PM EDT...RADAR DETECTED A WATERSPOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF LONG...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75244 - Fri Jun 01 2007 08:59 PM

wel, i guess it doesn't get this close... almost a sub-tropical storm, but thanks to the recent storms flaring... they went ahead and upgraded.

INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO
BE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
BARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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wxman007
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New Vortex.... [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #75245 - Fri Jun 01 2007 09:36 PM

Pressure down to 998, FL winds (in the West Quad!) to 67kts.


URNT12 KNHC 012116
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/21:00:20Z
B. 24 deg 13 min N
085 deg 30 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 290 deg 016 nm
F. 351 deg 067 kt
G. 256 deg 004 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 21 C/ 274 m
J. 22 C/ 466 m
K. / C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 14
MAX FL WIND 67 KT W QUAD 20:58:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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typhoon_tip
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: MikeC]
      #75247 - Fri Jun 01 2007 09:57 PM

I am not completely convinced that what we are seeing out there is a pure tropical system.

Be that as it may...this was the one aspect we discussed yesterday and the day before, which could cause better development; we have seen that come to pass. The system begin a concerted NNE motion in such a way as to lower the impact of the westerly shear upon its vertical motion field (embedded convection). Shear is present however, despite this storm relative shear related reduction and that is why we see the majority of the convection displaced(ing) NE of the center -- it is being tipped and pulled NE of the center.

Note: The 12Z ECM depicted tightly bounded cyclone nearing the bend area of the Gulf Coast of Florida. This was a new idea along the modeling history for this system, as most models maintained an amorpous broad bag of closed pressure pattern with more than one sub-vortices contained; then consolidating later on into an East Coast system. That latter behavior is in tact as expecation still goes, but, this subtle suggestion prior to Gulf Coastal landfall, by the ECM, just got a confidence boost for seeing this surprise jump to TS status. As long as the system keeps moving along with the deeper layer westerlies the way it is, it has a chance -- albeit lower rather than higher -- at developing a bit more.

It is important to note that 67kt at flight level extrapolates (usually) to around 50mph at the surface, which is just getting interesting as far as being more than just a breezy day.
-- Flood preparedness
-- Tornado awareness
-- Basic essentials for power failure
are the big three for Barry. Other than some beach erosion, surge will fairly low impact. Wind will be gusty near the core and where heavier convective elements transfer some of that flight level momentum into the boundary layer. Otherwise, not a very big concern there either.

Barry will be interesting once it crosses Florida and interact with the dynamics of a trough amplification. It should be well involved with cyclone phase transition at that time.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Jun 01 2007 09:59 PM)


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vineyardsaker
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #75249 - Fri Jun 01 2007 10:07 PM

Quote:


-- Flood preparedness
-- Tornado awareness
-- Basic essentials for power failure
are the big three for Barry.




After Charley, any tropical cyclone coming from the southwest is, as far as I am concerned, a serious potential tornado risk. If tornadoes happen again this time it will be the third time in less than six months that Volusia county will have been hit by tornadic activity. If the NHC track is correct, this would place us on the front-right quadrant of Barry - so we should be very careful indeed.

Good luck everybody!

VS

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole


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Storm Cooper
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #75250 - Fri Jun 01 2007 10:09 PM

There is a new Main Page (Thread ) started. Go there.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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dem05
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #75251 - Fri Jun 01 2007 10:12 PM

Through the evening, I will be curious to see if this is one of those "Thunderstorm chaser" Systems that we have seen a couple of in recent years over 'round this side of the Gulf. Perfect examples being Earl in '98 and Gabriele in '01. These storms get an established center, the thunderstorms shear off to the NE and a new, slightly stronger center reforms to theNortheast under the thunderstorms time and time again until landfall or system decay. This may be a classic candidate for that now,and if it does so, I'd expect a landfall around Tampa or a bit further south as a moderate tropical storm, but nothing more. Either way, I wouldn't expect anything too strong along the western coast and we are gonna get some much welcome rain! Too funny! I wrote this thing off last night. That tasty crow is mighty delicious! LOL :-)

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CoconutCandy
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: dem05]
      #75257 - Fri Jun 01 2007 10:44 PM

Well, Shiver me timbers!

Barry made the tropical transition that almost everyone *did not* think would happen, even myself.

I was looking at the very first visible pics and mentioned here that it was looking alot like a sub-tropical system, at best. And there wasn't much in the way of deep convection near the center.

But, alas! The deep convection finally did flare up and with each passing visible pic to add to the loop, it became apparent that tropical cyclogenesis was unfolding before our eyes!

I, too, eat crow. It just goes to show, folks, that with all our computer models, all the advanced analysis tools and the elaborate, 'high-brow' postings from our many very knowledgable members to this forum, that good 'ol Mother Nature has the final say and, often, she throws a curve ball just when we were expecting the slider.

But keep it up! There have been many very insightful and educational postings. Great forum. Learning tons! Thank you all.

- Previous Coconut Grove Resident

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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina


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Storm Cooper
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #75260 - Fri Jun 01 2007 10:48 PM

This Thread is done. There is a new Thread, go to the Main Page.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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