Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Here's the Cancun radar... its almost out of range now of the low thats in the GOM now... I think its been drifting to the west in the last few hours.
Cancun Radar
I would put the center Northwest of Cancun now, based on sats i have looked at.
This appears to be a western GOM system... almost looks like it going to follow the ULL, thats hindering its development right now.
RGB on Floater 2
This VIS should be the best shot of the system until it reaches landfall VIS - GOM
**noticed the storms trying to fire near the center, but are blown off to the north because of that ULL to the NW of the 91L.
**Also if i'm correct in my lat./long... TD4 should pass close to buoy Forro in the next 24 hrs.... The actual forecast is for TD4 to become a TS before it reaches it:
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.9N 38.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
with the buoy being at: 12 N 38 W (12°00'00"N 38°00'00"W)
Station 41026
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 13 2007 06:22 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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We have a good week to see where TD4 goes.. again anything after 3 days is just decreasing its chance at being near that point. Models will change from run to run.
The area in the extreme southern gulf is a weak low moving WNW. This could become a TD or TS in 24-36 hrs but not sooner..by then it will be close to the TX-Mex boarder. Im not giving it much luck of being classified even though gusts in outside storms from the center will gust over 40mph.
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Lee-Delray
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I'm noticing a trend in the models to either head 90L to the Southeast or recurve, what is causing that?
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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The site has the track going more towards the middle Texas coast. Are they normally different than the models and other's opinions?
Shawn
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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In my haste to post on now 91L earlier, I over looked the mean cloud rotation.
Surface center would be north of the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and the mid level center appears to be near the W tip of Cuba and the Isla de Juvidad-Isle of Youth. This new location of the mid levels is based on a 1 hour visible satellite loop, and the high thin cirrus on the western semicircle.
(mid level clouds 'point' to the "center of circulation")
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Do you think the low level circulation could reform under the mid level? Could this be why the is different than others?
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Clark
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Not a whole lot to add at this time for either TD 4 or 91L. TD 4 is racing along to the west in the open Atlantic, having a hard time bringing itself together considering its fast forward speed. There's a bit of stable air getting ingested on the NE side of the storm, further helping to keep it somewhat lopsided/asymmetric today. It should slow down and enter a more favorable environment as it nears 45-50W; from there, steady intensification looks somewhat likely. Model guidance has shifted a tad north today in the 3-5 day time period as the subtropical ridge doesn't look to be quite as strong as initially suggested, but still the 5p track toward the southern end of those models looks to be pretty good (as usual). Beyond that, it all depends on where it actually is once it gets to the Islands...so the best advice I can give is "stay tuned."
91L is closer to home and a bit more pressing of an issue. It's slowly become better organized over the past 24hr or so, even if it is still somewhat broad. If it develops, it'll be one of those storms that found the right point along the east side of an upper low where it could develop. Not that often it occurs into the peak of the season in the Gulf, but nothing says it can't either. Lower Texas looks like the best bet for the moisture from this one whether it forms or not. Some of the higher-resolution and less-reliable models are picking up on it and developing it into at least a TS by the time it gets there; that's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but a lot will be determined by how organized it becomes in the next day I think. More than that, it's a rainfall event for the lower part of the state -- and for most there, not necessarily a needed rainfall event -- however the rain could be used much further north and east, though it unfortunately looks like they are going to get missed by the bulk of it all.
And, of course, there's Flossie. Haven't been following it enough to give much more than a couple of general impressions on it, but it's almost the textbook definition of an annular hurricane right now, a fact that is probably helping maintain its intensity over slightly cooler than ideal waters. Mostly, I just hope that the continual forecasts of shear + a continued WNW movement pan out in some fashion given my memories from Ioke last year. I don't think we'll see another Ioke out of this one, though!
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i thought we were still harnessed with just one worry (current TD 4/future dean) this morning until i saw the 11 am outlook and took a look at the visibles in the gulf. that thing is a pile of trouble for texas no matter what happens. i'd been worried something would want to go there given the persistent upper weakness over there most of the summer, and this one is going to. hydrologic conditions in texas are not what you would want with an impending heavy tropical rainfall event.
it's sort of hard to make out exactly what kind of surface feature is out there right now, given that the convection is heaping to the east. i'd expect a weak/broad center persisting until it gets convection closer or relocates to the more supportive upper conditions. every so often a system like this will bullheadedly plow into shear with supportive conditions just a little ways off... this one will have to really work at it to stay completely sloppy as the upper low is weakening and zipping westward. just the same, system is moving wnw and should run out of water in about 48 hrs. that should give it enough time to get organized but probably not enough to... oh, say, make an outlandish intensification run like alicia did in 1983. if i was in south and central texas i'd expect a tropical storm, and lots and lots of rain that you don't need.
td 4 has the odds stacked towards being a hurricane when it gets to the caribbean. it's been firing deep convection like a champ most of the day, in spite of some modest shear from behind. the latest advisory latched onto a lot of the things i was thinking earlier today, and played the right shift in the model guidance the way i was reckoning as well. it's definitely going to feel that ridge fracture off the east coast this weekend, and may end up getting north of the islands. on the same coin early next week that break will be filling and most of the globals show heights rising near the southeast... if it doesn't get it's ticket punched by that trough, it's probably going to end up in florida or the gulf. it's much too early to resolve how the ridging will drive this thing... with a potential system in the gulf the uncertainty is even higher, due to the feedback tropical systems create on the ridging that guides them... and not all of the globals resolve the east atlantic system well initially or track it in a believable way. even before this thing existed the models were doing ominous things with it. around about the 18th it's going to be making folks in the caribbean say uncle. if i was in florida i'd be mindful that around the 23rd something could be in your neighborhood. the globals have sent it everywhere from bermuda to hatteras to texas to honduras over the last few days, so that's in no way a likelihood... but i'd put better odds there right now.
HF 2207z13august
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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If the timing is off on the models and TD4/dean is further to the west it could catch that opening in the ridge.
from the models over the last few days, that opening snaps shut and then i would think florida is in trouble
my only thought would be this would be threatening florida (and other places) closer to the 21st/22nd be in turks and caicos going one way or the other.
its far off to be sure but a lot rides on the models handling his forward speed properly because you can't get a good intensity forecast without being right on forward speed.
thanks for the indepth, helps see the whole picture
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Based on history of similarly located Aug storms, I'll say this one will recurve without hitting the .
However, there are two notable exceptions, Allen and Andrew:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_climo.html#a_topad
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I don't know if anyone else sees this but our system in the gulf may be eyeing places further east than Texas. At least that seems to be where all the moisture is headed...east. It just doesn't seem the upper low is moving away quick enough to give the little guy a chance.
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hurricaneguy
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Loc: Greeneville, TN
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Wow this is shaping to be one interesting week. With so much speculation on were this storm might go based on current expectations I think a friendly poll is in order.
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WeatherNut
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It looks to me over the last several frames that 91L is consolidating well east of the low center, where the MLC was located. Thats where the convection is really starting to fire up
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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You forgot all of the above.
Mods please excuse the one line post.
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Storm Cooper
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Can't argue that! Lets keep the posting on track, please. Lots of time and water to go yet....
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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the high pressure and dry air to the north seem to be squashing TD4's curculation and causing it to elongage east to west--i no longer see any well-definded center, and i think once the dry air moves in more, it may cause the system to simply fall apart in a few days
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Clark
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Early morning IR satellite imagery suggests quite the leap in organization of 91L along the NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula. It is tough to pinpoint the center, however, given the lack of surface obs (land and ocean), visible satellite imagery, and recent scatterometer data (latest was ASCAT at 11a ET yesterday). If current trends continue through the morning, it's possible we could see an upgrade by 11a or in a special advisory package once recon gets out there. I'm not really sure I can see recon getting canceled in the morning, not with how things look at this moment. No change to previous thinking on this one.
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BLTizzle
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Loc: Eufaula, AL
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looking at THIS I see some slight turning at around 10.5N 35W, but if that is the case then the entire convection has outrun the center. Lots of lightning still popping though. Not sure if the has concealed a surface low or it in fact has outrun it.
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Brandon in Eufaula, AL - experienced TS Alberto ('93) Opal ('95), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Katrina ('05) (I was in Tuscaloosa AL roughly 70 miles SSE of Columbus, MS)
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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It really looks like the Gulf system is getting its act together. You can see very nice banding features and looks like it is starting to consolidate itself some. The upper low is racing off to the west and should be onshore later today. The systems in the Gulf have a way of really blowing up in a hurry. However, that normally takes the perfect combo of upper air patterns that are not present for this system. It could easily become a minumum tropical storm though before it hits land. Any thoughts?
Shawn
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Really need to start looking at the Herbert Box concerning TD4.There is a very good chance it will go through this "box".We may have Dean by 11:00am.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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