wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Watching the beginning of the 18Z operational run...seems to be struggling with the short-term intensity of Dean. Shows lowest central pressure of 1002 mb at 36 hours.
Dean is, and should be, a wee bit lower than that pressure-wise. 
Yup...but modellers use a technique called vortex bogusing in situations like this. If you initalize a model with a 960-ish vortex the model doesn't like it at ALL, so the vortex is 'bogused" and raised in SLP to something the model can handle. This is done on purpose, and the it pretty much averages out in the first few time steps of of the model run.
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Jason Kelley
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BlueBayou1
Registered User
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I hope I'm not out of line by asking this question... I've been reading over all of these posts and trying to figure out just what is going on, but I'm no weather expert, just watch it alot and try to keep up with what's going on. But from reading these posts on here, I can't quite figure out if all of YOU think the gulf is more in the line of fire at this point, or is central america? I know this will be hard for all of you to answer, but I've seen some models on another website showing it hitting texas, and some on another site going no where near it. I live in Louisiana so I'm watching this quite close!!
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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dean seems intent on wrecking the places i went for my honeymoon. the ports of call were grand cayman and ocho rios... reverse order, but it looks like dean has them on the itinerary for sunday and monday.
clark gave his more professional take on the same sort of thing i've been mulling over. dean has been closing ground with that upper weakness, which like many do is being more persistent than not. dean will also feel the pull of the larger islands (from it's windfield being warped) and make some jogs here and there to compensate for the asymmetry. i wouldn't be too surprised if it opts for that slightly more northerly course that pushes it over the northern side of jamaica and keeps it tilted ever so slightly towards the northern edge of the guidance envelope. this hurricane is really trucking... if it is indeed designated for texas then it will be there in 5-6 day range. if you're in the state, particularly in the southern and central parts, be vigilant and concerned if on sunday the hurricane goes just north of jamaica. course, to the south and then it's probably mexico all the way.
HF 2306z17august
extra note: satellite appearance is still improving. wont be surprised if the recon finds a hurricane with a 940-950 pressure and winds around 140. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 17 2007 11:07 PM)
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
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The Gulf Coast... from Mexico to Alabama needs to watch this very closely. At this point... there is still quite a bit up in the air. Right now, I like the --others feel differently--but the bottom line is.... from June 1st to November 30th..... you need to be prepared, so that nothing is a surprise.
Take care...
WW-911
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
extra note: satellite appearance is still improving. wont be surprised if the recon finds a hurricane with a 940-950 pressure and winds around 140. -HF
It would actually surprise me if the *didn't* find at least a Cat 4 storm and that kind of pressure, HF. The satellite appearance of Dean this evening is extremely impressive, and as you said, it's still improving. Eyewall replacement cycles not withstanding, Dean is well on the way to becoming a Cat 5 - possibly tomorrow.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Aug 17 2007 11:33 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Here is some recon data:
232830 1500N 06511W 6989 02836 9990 +077 +999 052123 127 091 055 05
232900 1459N 06510W 6942 02844 9990 +079 +999 048126 130 093 063 01
232930 1457N 06509W 6965 02765 9990 +094 +999 043093 110 121 022 05
233000 1456N 06508W 6990 02692 9525 +133 +133 036070 077 123 014 03
Please tell me if I am interpreting this wrong, but it looks to me that they found flight level winds up to 126 knots (30-sec average) and surface winds up to 123 knots (10 second average).
This might not be a pass through the center, either. Not sure the exact location of the plane vs the vortex, but it has to be somewhere close.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Yup...but modellers use a technique called vortex bogusing in situations like this. If you initalize a model with a 960-ish vortex the model doesn't like it at ALL, so the vortex is 'bogused" and raised in SLP to something the model can handle. This is done on purpose, and the it pretty much averages out in the first few time steps of of the model run.
Does a 960-ish vortex really behave the same as a 980-ish vortex, though? I assume there is sufficient evidence to indicate that it does, but it seems like the model output would be of questionable validity - garbage in, garbage out situation, you know. As the 'cane gets more powerful, too, it would seem that the models would be more suspect because of this difference in initialization. Or do they do something else to compensate for the pressure bogusing?
Random Chaos: I can't read that recon report (I'm no good at reading those formats), but the 123kts at the surface is about what I would estimate, based upon the IR presentation. Not saying it's accurate, just what I would expect looking at the imagery.
Will the issue another "full" Special Advisory package to upgrade Dean to a Cat 4, and up the intensity on the forecast, like they did just six short hours ago?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Aug 17 2007 11:46 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Recon just reported 126 kt flight-level winds and surface winds from SFMR at 123 kts, so Dean is likely to be upgraded to cat 4 status on the upcoming advisory.
edit: Random Chaos beat me to it on the recon winds. From the lat/lon, looks like they were somewhere in the western eyewall.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Fri Aug 17 2007 11:40 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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at 23:29:00Z and around 14.98N 65.17W at an alt of about (~ 20.50 inHg) 2,844 meters (~ 9,331 feet) Recon reported a flight level wind - From 48° at 126 knots (From the NE at ~ 144.9 mph) .... They should be flying through the eyewall or just may have..... there alt. went from 11k to about 8k the last i saw.. and now going back to about 10... looks like the pressure has dropped.. waiting on vortex.
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 17 2007 11:46 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm not seeing an Eyewall penetration in the data. But the 126 knots winds are correct and that would translate to about 146 mph at flt level or 131 mph at the surface.
Lowest pressure I've seen so far is 952mb. But that's a flight level pressure.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The lowest extrapolated pressure I've seen was at 2331:30 UTC (about 20 minutes ago) at 942.9 mb, where the winds where relatively calm. There could be a vortex message coming soon.
Regarding the advisory, I don't know if they will bother to update the full package now or not. I can't imagine they like to update intensity forecasts on the fly unless it is really necessary.
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Storm Hunter
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i think they went through the eyewall... because at 23:34:00Z at 14.80N 64.92W the plane was at alt. (~ 20.57 inHg) 2,794 meters (~ 9,167 feet) and had a flight level wind of - From 213° at 104 knots
(From between the SSW and SW at ~ 119.6 mph) ***Notice its from the SW... Inbound had a NE wind
*** and the air temp got up to about 63F when the winds got light... and then as they went out.. temps back in the 40'sF... alt at the 63.2F was at about 8k ft
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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here we go
000
URNT12 KNHC 172356
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/23:32:00Z
B. 14 deg 52 min N
065 deg 02 min W
C. NA mb 2632 m
D. 119 kt
E. 302 deg 006 nm
F. 048 deg 130 kt
G. 309 deg 010 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NW QUAD 23:29:00
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 18 2007 12:01 AM)
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MikeC
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Well the vortex is out, roughly 135MPh surface winds and pressure's at 946! Millibars.
The went back west to mid Texas, however. Still not trusting the long range models, however (Either direction).
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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NHC: "...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS..."
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
The went back west to mid Texas, however. Still not trusting the long range models, however (Either direction).
The real question for the shorter term is whether Dean actually makes landfall over the Yucatan. If it does, it will weaken, some at least, temporarily. If it doesn't, we're looking at a cat 5 hurricane entering the Gulf. Even if it moves over to Texas, the waves and high surf that will be generated will impact much of the coastline. I still remember , which generated incredible storm surge and waves even though it had weakened significantly by landfall.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Interesting part of the Pub. adv.
"REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 130
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS." ... winds on recon are light now.. they were still heading SE, but should be turning now to the north
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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weather999
Weather Watcher
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Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
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Dean looks like a smaller (at peak intensity), to me-just Dean's eye is larger. Definitely not good news.
Edited by weather999 (Sat Aug 18 2007 12:11 AM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I agree with your call WW. Dean has been
moving west along 15N for the last 6hrs-- really feeling the effects of the ridge. Although we have seen some wild swings with model tracks in the past few seasons I think this reasoning of a landfall from Alabama to Mexico will verify. Anything East of that would require more troughing from the Midwest which no 3-6 day forecast supports. The kind of turn we expeirenced with Charlie and needs a digging front which rarely happens in August..
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Loc: SWFL
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Quote:
I hope I'm not out of line by asking this question... I've been reading over all of these posts and trying to figure out just what is going on, but I'm no weather expert, just watch it alot and try to keep up with what's going on. But from reading these posts on here, I can't quite figure out if all of YOU think the gulf is more in the line of fire at this point, or is central america? I know this will be hard for all of you to answer, but I've seen some models on another website showing it hitting texas, and some on another site going no where near it. I live in Louisiana so I'm watching this quite close!!
Nobody knows for sure. Even the outright stated that at this point, the 4-5 day track is very suspect and up in the air.
As with any storm, take precautions, pay attention, and make sure if the track does come your way that you're prepared.
There is a lot still to come with this storm, especially since it's intensifying into a Cat 4 (and potentially a Cat 5).
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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