Nathan
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
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I'm here, just sighing a breath of relief that Texas is looking like its well outside the bullseye.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
P.S. - is anyone else around today?
I was wondering the same thing.... sure is quiet around here.
Looking at the Cuba radar now... very interesting images of the double eyewall there as well...
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../plnMAXw01a.gif
Dean is inching ever closer to the south coast of Jamaica. It doesn't look like the eye is actually going to cross the coast, but it's definately moving north of due west now (officially WNW per the 2pm advisory)
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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12Z model is nuts. Not in terms of track or intensity, but in terms of keeping the system intact for it to reach the Gulf of California and the Pacific Ocean!
Link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Well, considering what has happened with Erin and how it is more impressive in its structure now than when it came ashore I guess anything is possible. I wouldn't doubt that Dean could hold together.
Shawn
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I think everyone is about 'caned out and trying to enjoy their sunday for the moment. The images (Satellite and radar) that both ofyou have provided are really something. Unfortunately for the south coastof Jamaica...it doesn't look like they are going to get off as easy as in other storms from the past. In some ways, this is the worst way toget hit by a hurricane. I believ the eyewillpass just south of the island, but the eyewall replacement cycle is basically at a point where it covers a very wide windfield. Since the storm hasn't weakened much/if any...This means that southern jamaica will probably go through a longer event of destructive winds...I'd even suspect there will possibly be hurricane force wind gusts on the northern side of the island. It is very unfortunate...
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anomaly18
Registered User
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Loc: Galveston, TX
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Quote:
Edit:
P.S. - is anyone else around today?
Still here. Just listening to live feed of Jamaican radio and d/l latest satellite.
I have seen talk on a few other sites about the Gulf ULL slowing down. What effect would this have on the direction/intensity of Dean. Anyone think its slowing? I'm not convinced.
IR:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
WV:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Edited by anomaly18 (Sun Aug 19 2007 06:26 PM)
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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I'm been watching, just not much to add. I did notice that the buoy drop "recon" flight was flying around most of the morning around 20N 83W.
Does anyone know if that buoy data will be publicly available? I couldn't find any reference to it, other than others' remarks about the POTD that mentioned it.
Bill
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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The latest radar image appears to show that the inner eyewall has collapsed. It's only in the very last frame, though, so it's hard to tell.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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anomaly18
Registered User
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Loc: Galveston, TX
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Here is an amazing loop of the past 24 hours of Dean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2007_04L/webManager/last24hrs.gif
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dem05
User
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Well...Nothing to significant to write home about that will affect long term track...The upper level low seems to be on a continued westward moment. Frommy earlier post today, it is something to watch...but with low probability of effects.
With that said, I will not be surprised to see a slightly north of track motion commencing any time from now through the next 18 hours...Which will bemore of a case of shorter term motions as the Upper Ridge in the Atlantic and the ULL in the Gulf interact. I base this on some interesting observations of the Upper level flow over the Bahamas/Florida late thismorning and this afternoon. This morning, the upper level flow was more out of the east-souteast. Asof now, this flow has tightened up a bit (more wind barbs and some higher winds). Also...these winds are now coming out of the SE instead of the ESE. So this may help to impart a slightly North of track motion over the next 6-18 hours. In the longer term (24+ hours) however... I don't see any significant change to the overall thinking at this time.
LINK: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
Edited by dem05 (Sun Aug 19 2007 06:41 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Quote:
I'm been watching, just not much to add. I did notice that the buoy drop "recon" flight was flying around most of the morning around 20N 83W.
Does anyone know if that buoy data will be publicly available? I couldn't find any reference to it, other than others' remarks about the POTD that mentioned it.
Bill
It's my understanding that the buoys aren't necessarily for wind measurements but are more for water measurements, specifically water temperature and the depth of the warmest water. I could be wrong, however. I'm guessing that basic meteorological data will also come from them, but I tend to think that direct public access will be fairly limited.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Here is an amazing loop of the past 24 hours of Dean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2007_04L/webManager/last24hrs.gif
Want to note that that is a "morphing" animation of the microwave data. It only has a few images that it is turning into an animation through a dynamic morphing method.
Still neat though 
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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not bad at all!? Kingston weather
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Latest IR image shows convection deeping somewhat again, although the eye is now cloud-filled. The weather may not be "bad" right now in Jamaica, but it's about to go down hill in a hurry.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Looks to me that they dropped the buoy to the WSW of Grand Cayman... Recon is halfway back to MS.. other plane is doing recon mission on Dean...
Attachment
The green line is AF 305.... they were at 1,000ft on the NE heading in the image.. dropped the buoy i think just to the WSW of Grand Cayman... Yellow is Recon AF304... near the storm
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 19 2007 07:11 PM)
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Man, looking at the last couple of frames of movement in the IR loop, it looks like the eye is going to miss just to south of Jamaica but I think there is a good chance that the northern eyewall is going to clip Kingston.
I am listening to the live feed and they are already reporting electricity outages (although they say that the energy company has not yet locked down the grid), flooding and many building collapses and wall collapses inculding one at a police station.
God help these people, I know what they are about to go through and hopefully they can pull through! They've been through Gilbert and and many others, so they know what to expect.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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amazing animation one of the best ive seen
and dean just goes westish... and seem on the money, so does
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Man, looking at the last couple of frames of movement in the IR loop, it looks like the eye is going to miss just to south of Jamaica but I think there is a good chance that the northern eyewall is going to clip Kingston.
I am listening to the live feed and they are already reporting electricity outages (although they say that the energy company has not yet locked down the grid), flooding and many building collapses and wall collapses inculding one at a police station.
God help these people, I know what they are about to go through and hopefully they can pull through! They've been through Gilbert and and many others, so they know what to expect.
CNN indicated this morning that power would be cut off at 11am, but perhaps they had bad information. It does indeed appear that Jamaica is beginning to bear the full brunt of the eyewall, based upon the radar and IR loop. You mention that they've been through Gilbert and and many others, but that's a misnomer. Neither of those storms was a Cat 4 when it crosses Jamaica - they exploded in the NW Caribbean after going by/over Jamaica. This is the closest the island has come to this kind of fury in a long, long, long time from what I have heard (if they've ever had anything like this before).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I think Hurricane Allen was the last big Cat 4 storm Jamaica had to deal with on it's door step. Allen passed just north of the island, though, allowing the weaker southern quadrants to affect the island mostly.
Hurricane Gilbert passed over Jamaica, but only as a Category 3. While still nasty, not as bad as a Category 4.
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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According to postings on StormCarib, power went off as scheduled, but power and cable were turned back on for a while. They were expecting it to be phased off as Dean enters the areas. It's been a while since anyone posted (about 1:30 their time) so I am guessing it is probably off now.
My prayers are with all in Dean's path....
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