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Colin expected to be short-lived riding up the coasts of the Carolinas. Bonnie now in the East Pac.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Nicholas) , Major: 308 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1362 (Michael) Major: 1362 (Michael)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
who wants to call noel? [Re: weathernet]
      #79148 - Wed Oct 03 2007 06:53 PM

we've got three good disturbances that could all potentially be noel. still have the ghosts of two tropical storms poking around east of the islands, too.
90L is trying to do its best impression of tropical depression 10. finally blowing some convection today.. it's got a well defined center but has been running around bare, even over that loaded central gulf water. all it takes is a good convective burst to mix those winds down... buoys out there have been reporting 25-30kt stuff on and off all day. then again, it might just scurry its way up to the louisiana coast and ditch ashore before it can develop. anybody's guess.
91L is that ITCZ feature under the ridge, which was actually a fairly well defined little circulation before all the convection showed up, that is slowly developing. the NHC ignored it for a couple days prior, but it's slowly getting its act together. none of the models like it, which is befuddling. it's going to develop. should do that quite nicely. run into shear and maybe recurve, maybe fight its way up under the big east coast ridge.
92L is trying to develop a center under the huge clockwise upper dome that is going to make an excellent vent once it gets together. it may be able to find ways to spit out surface vortices and try to develop where the developing isn't good.. but if it gets going, look out. if the globals are right it goes through the straits of florida and camps near the yucatan into next week. if they're wrong (and it develops sooner) it could come further north at florida. this thing is trouble all around if it gets going.
the remains of melissa keep noisily insisting they are there. karen's ghost is still floating near the virgin islands. something from either (or 91L if it gets up there) ought to tuck under the ridge behind 92L and come west as well. it will have to contend with the upper trough trying to form there, but could come riding west in force if the trough fractures and sends an upper low sw. in any case something ought to act up there... whether it can do anything is another issue.
that's enough to mind. we ought to dig deeper into the alphabet before the week is over. the flurry of weaklings in september got us well along.
HF 2252z03october

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 03 2007 06:54 PM)

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Posts: 55
Re: who wants to call noel? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #79149 - Wed Oct 03 2007 07:00 PM

sorry if this has already been mentioned. But the low level circulation in the Gulf east of the convection and moving almost due north?

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Storm Hunter
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: who wants to call noel? [Re: flahurricane]
      #79150 - Wed Oct 03 2007 08:27 PM Attachment (1048 downloads)

Been watching 90L all day... and this afternoon its looks like it finally getting its act together... the location would pose some concern with me if it were a normal October, but i think once again Upper level winds have saved it from getting up to TS/Hurricane... I expect if the current trend holds... this may become Noel sometime in the morning... with landfall along the southern part of LA... some time late tomorrow into the night as a TD or a weak TS... i think it may have time to transition over too a warm core at this point... time will tell. There is small storms blowing up near the center... although there still is signs of a decent amount of shear...

-------------------- ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh

Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Oct 03 2007 10:44 PM)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: who wants to call noel? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79152 - Thu Oct 04 2007 12:32 AM

90 sure looks like it's trying tonight.. perhaps a last-ditch effort.. a real "college try" before the influx of high shear and dry air from the northwest, in addition to all that dry air 90's been coping with thus far, inflicts another, and the potentially mortal, blow. By all appearances, 90 is attempting to become a tropical cyclone, rather than subtropical. The deepest convection keeps occurring closer to the center, than away, and scatterometer does show a tendency of the winds to increase in strength - if you can call it that - as they grow closer to the center. The strongest winds associated with 90L have consistently been a result of the pressure gradient from the High to its north and northwest. Without that, surface winds might be about 25 knots, as estimated by NRL. I saw a 40MPH sustained at an elevated oil rig (up over 100 feet, and not representative of the surface winds). So, there are certainly some stronger sustained winds in there that might be brought down in squalls. With hours left before this upcoming blast from the northwest, IMHO the next 20-30 hours are critical as to whether or not 90 ever gets a formal designation. After that, it's probably c'est la vie.

92L has piqued my interest some more tonight. I think I'm like many of us who appreciated watching that awol LLC blasting off to the northwest earlier during daylight hours. Looking more and more like this will be where Florida gets at least its next round of wet, blustery weather from, at the very least. (In concert with the building high to its north) - With so much deep tropical moisture, outflow, developing and likely improving anticyclonic flow aloft, surface trofiness, et. al., I find it very hard to argue against something taking hold over the next 4 days or so from this feature.

Most recent SSD estimates:
03/2345 UTC 9.6N 43.4W TOO WEAK 91L
03/2345 UTC 24.8N 72.4W T1.0/1.0 92L
03/2345 UTC 26.8N 87.7W T1.5/1.5 90L

Edit - 92L is just looking better and better farther south and east, down near 21N 70W, isn't it? Scat shows the broad surface low centered much farther north and west, but it is really hard to let the eyeballs ignore the obvious - persistent, deep convection - and now with the large upper level anticyclone quite pronounced... Makes one wonder how much 90L gave up that 92L could take advantage of. On the face of it, it looks like it could be a lot.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Oct 04 2007 02:29 AM)

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