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#90L pushing further inland. Rain, t-storms, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes possible in the southeast.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 255 (Nicholas) , Major: 271 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1325 (Michael) Major: 1325 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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hofloka
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #79913 - Thu May 29 2008 11:16 AM

Now is TS Alma.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up [Re: hofloka]
      #79914 - Thu May 29 2008 11:52 AM

Alma pulled herself together rapidly even hugging the coastline as she does you can see an eye like feature that is impressive.

Other Pacific storms this year have rapidly intensified as well. It will be interesting to see if this happens in the Atlantic storms as well. Or...where Alma goes from here..

Moving slowly and going to cause flooding grief in that part of the world. With such slow movement I don't see
how it makes the crossing but you never know.

Check out the CDO.. on close up.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.htm

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2115
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up [Re: LoisCane]
      #79915 - Thu May 29 2008 12:11 PM

This is a very impressive tropical cyclone. Most impressive that it has been able to improve so dramatically while also so close to the coast. I keep thinking of Humberto (ATL 2007).. while reportedly no storm before or since has intensified more rapidly while so close to land, comparisons can be loosely made, given 01E.'s dynamite appearance and rapid strengthening.

Hurricane Warnings are now up along the coast!

TROPICAL STORM ALMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
900 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

SATELLITE...MICROWAVE...AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT ALMA IS
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF ALMA AND
TO ISSUE NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. ALMA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1600Z 11.7N 86.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 12.5N 87.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.5N 89.0W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up [Re: cieldumort]
      #79916 - Thu May 29 2008 12:29 PM

Yeah: There is no question this is moving north and it is probably Cat 1 now based on the visible presentation. Looking at the WV loop trying to discern the synoptic pattern which has been influenced greatly by the rapid development of Alma, I don't see anything that will deviate this to the NW or out to sea. There is a weak ULL to its west which should help push it north into Central America.
The whole moisture envelope in the W. Carribean is continuing to expand and gradually drift north as well. If the GFS is still trying to pull a string in the W.Carribean in 3 days or so that may be in the zone of probable. Other models however don't do anything in the longer run as far as impact on Florida from even an increased precipitation event next week.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up [Re: cieldumort]
      #79917 - Thu May 29 2008 12:34 PM

Alma certainly appears to be well organized and intensifying on sat pictures. There seems to be an eye feature developing as well, which indicates the storm may well be a minimal hurricane already. SSTs are fairly warm along the coast there, too. It will be interesting to see what happens after this system moves inland and begins to dissipate in relation to its affect on the unsettled weather in the adjacent Caribbean.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: clear CDO there... shows well on NRL site close up [Re: doug]
      #79919 - Thu May 29 2008 01:25 PM

See... it is hard to believe models that don't show Florida getting more than it's share of some rain the next few days. Just from the sats alone you can see moisture streaming north and feeding an already monsoonal patten in South Florida starting up. And, there is a slow moving trough coming down the state as moisture from the outflow pattern of Alma is spreading in Florida's direction.

Too soon to buy into any real path as she is moving slow across mucho land mass and time will tell but I have a problem with models not picking up on chances of higher than normal tropical rain for Florida from this. Maybe not a named storm but something tropical other than afternoon thunderstorms.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

And, yes.. it has had an eye like feature since around 11 am if not earlier and I don't think it's an illusion.. plus, outflow... well established outflow.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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