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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)

News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Kaity FL Lady

Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season [Re: scottsvb]
      #80043 - Tue Jun 03 2008 08:07 PM

Seeing as I just finished putting out my neighbors yard, a person driving by flicked a cig butt into her yard and poof fire. We need so much rain, rooting for Arthur to bring rain.

I have been reading everything, I think we are in for a year like 2004

Prepare Prepare Prepare!

I just read the outlook, am I reading it correct, is there something down bahamas way....

We still could use a good TS or Cat 1 to clear the air and make us not so suseptible to fire.

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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season [Re: Unregistered User]
      #80045 - Tue Jun 03 2008 11:18 PM

There are some interesting evolutions/changes of note across the Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Camp. this evening.

First and foremost, there is evidence that the strong ridge is finally loosing its grip ove the Gulf. This can be noted in the visible imagery today. The flow over the western Gulf in particulary has been shifting into a southwesterly flow and now at almost a southerly flow.

Link (visible): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
Link (Shortwave. Not as good as the visible right now, but will surfice during nightime hours): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

Next, the change in flow out of the southwest and south, plus the northerly progression of the bent out of shape 91L should help to build the air moisture around the BOC and southern Gulf with time. Also, there is evidence that an Upper Low is evolving in Mexico (give or take coordinates of around 19N, 97.5W)

Link (Water Vapor): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

Of course, how could we not forget about the remenants of Arthur? His broad/weak gyre has made it to the Bay of Campeechee now as can be referenced in the visible loops...even staring to show some gain some latitude now. Introduce his remenants, plus a little moisture support from old 91L and the kick may be there to spawn some redevelopment...Just something to watch for now, but overall, the pattern in the Gulf is changing.

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Weather Guru

Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season [Re: MichaelA]
      #80046 - Tue Jun 03 2008 11:19 PM

Two areas of immediate interest that I see is a little area of convection in the central part of the eastern lesser antilles islands that appears to be developing a little spin to it, and a tropical wave several hundred miles east of the lesser antilles that appears to be spinning as well with a flare up of convection.

EDIT: I've taken the liberty of circling in red the areas of interest in which there either seems to be spin present or have interesting factors going for them:

Edited by JoshuaK (Tue Jun 03 2008 11:28 PM)

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Weather Master

Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Starts 2008 Atlantic Season [Re: JoshuaK]
      #80049 - Wed Jun 04 2008 02:00 AM

Those will not form, no model support and it's very RARE for something to spin up this early near the Lesser Antilies. July is possible though, with all the waves coming off aggressivly this early, but not just yet. I would look more at the BOC if anything were to form, very little chance. With all that monsoon moisture in place, who knows.

Allan Reed - 18,9,5

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Loc: Graniteville, SC
campeche, east atlantic [Re: allan]
      #80051 - Wed Jun 04 2008 02:41 AM

models not too enthusiastic about coughing up a system near the yucatan anymore, but they are starting to tow a good bit more moisture up with the digging trough in the western CONUS, with the substantial shortwaves being ejected later this week into the midwest (should be some more severe weather with those). it's a real longshot, but if something managed to reorganize in the big mess that contains the remnants of alma-arthur-91E, it might actually migrate up to the northwest or north. something to look for, with persistent low pressure in the area.. but the gulf is overall quite dry and u/a conditions are lackluster as you go north.
byett already mentioned it, out there near 9-10/36-37, way east of where you look for development in early june. just the same, there's a weak but undeniable circulation likely in the h85-70 region with this feature and intermittent convective bursts. really dry out there in general and the u/a conditions get worse the further west you go. just the same... what the heck is that thing doing out there on june 3?
two things to glance at, nothing to bite at for now.
HF 0341z04june

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