LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Considering data just came in from Recon they have to issue an advisory, a public discussion. These things don't write themselves. Imagine they could go with TD status but info coming in screams Storm and several sites including have put up the D name..
Give them time to get it right. They aren't blogging or posting here and a lot of data needs to be shared and dispersed.
Amazing how we can follow along now days as if we are on recon.
She isn't going west by my eye and you can watch the water vapor loop for hints as to where she will go but the IR really is showing a developing storm.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
good loop and doesn't go far enough to the east to distract you looking at future ways.
also..show's what's up over the US that can affect her
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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cieldumort
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Quote:
I'm not quite sure what Recon is doing.
They so far have not passed anywhere close to the core of the storm.
See attached screenshot from Google Earth.
Sounds like a pretty good reason not to use that program. Here's a link to a direct data feed.
As for advisories not yet being up on "Dolly," might have three named storms on their hands to write advisories up on all about the same time, and could be running a little behind, is all.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Bear in mind that the 11 am advisory packages have yet to come out for Cristobal and Bertha too. I'm sure things are a little hectic in the right now.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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True LoisCane... but given that the advisory time has arrived... I would have thought that the would issue a STDS in the interim, to say "Recent reports from hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical Storm Debby is forming in the northwest Caribbean Sea. A special advisory will be issued within the hour."
They've done that in the past in similar situations.
Having said that, they're just now issuing the entire Atlantic package, so maybe Dolly's advisory is just a few minutes late. now has 04L.DOLLY posted but no track yet.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Jul 20 2008 11:07 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Bertha and Cristobal have their forecast discussions up at . Not much detail on either, much less than normal. Bertha is basically non-existent discussion. Must be spending all their time on 04L's writeup.
Per the google earth data: that actually matches the data from the data direct link. The vortex recon was way SW of the satellite based IR core, and I compared it to the lat/lon in the HDOB and recon statments.
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Hugh
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Well considering that Bertha was officially declared with this package, it's not surprising to have a very short discussion. There's not much you can say about it that hasn't been said already.
Cristobal looks pathetic right now, too, and even though it's closer to the it's moving away from land. So all attention should be focused on the new gal in town, so to speak.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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cieldumort
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Little bit of shear still impacting the cyclone, keeping the deepest convection offset to the east of the LLCC.
"Dolly" is in a squeeze play between the ULL to its northwest and another approaching ULL from its east. It may or may not continue to be afflicted with shear all the way to its ultimate destination. On the other hand, it does have a fledgling ULH sitting above it, which could yet expand somewhat, especially with continued deep convection.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Are they going to wait and hold off and issue a special advisory package at 12? This is rather strange, even on relative short notice.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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ftlaudbob
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Looks to me like this thing is really getting it's act together.It also appears that it is happening at a fast pace.I think it will skip TD status and go right to TS Dolly.I also noticed the shear drop off someone else mentioned.This July is starting to remind me of July 2005,as far as activity.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Texas Cane Tracker
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Loc: Tomball, TX
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This system (Dolly) certainly appears to be much further North than the coordinates that were reported when this was classifed as 94L . Will this apparent shift to the north be reflected in the forecast track of the system, or is this simply energy displaced from the center?
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Well has it designated as Dolly.
update: Its on site now
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Sun Jul 20 2008 11:44 AM)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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The marine advisory just came out. Located at 18.4N 84.2 W. Winds of 40knts, gusts to 50 knts.
Thats all so far.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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NHC Tropical Storm Dolly up. Not much detail yet. Looks like they are using trac data from the old core, not the new northern core.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Dolly Finally...I mean Finally...made it down to the surface late last night.....and once it did...it made it more NW turn later than the model expected. Once it made it down to the surface..thunderstorm now are finally trying to fire around a better defined circulation that was once a broad LLC....earlier the disturbance was mostly in the midlevels. Dolly should move on more of a southern route towards the Yucitan and then NE Mexico. Texas isnt out of the woods yet though.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Dolly Finally...I mean Finally...made it down to the surface late last night.....and once it did...it made it more NW turn later than the model expected. Once it made it down to the surface..thunderstorm now are finally trying to fire around a better defined circulation that was once a broad LLC....earlier the disturbance was mostly in the midlevels. Dolly should move on more of a southern route towards the Yucitan and then NE Mexico. Texas isnt out of the woods yet though.
I don't quite follow this logic... Dolly made a NW turn, yet it's going to take a more southern route from here on out? Why?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html
Also... it's been following the ULL which is currenly around the West Tip of Cuba which makes you think.
Expect new models to have new tracks and remember they have watches up so there will be a 2pm locational advisory
Am thinking the first real discussion will be at 5. Think this was sort of like an Alert Upgrade vs a 11 Advisory.
Probably good as they are still getting data from recon and then they have to evaluate it and talk it over, etc.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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I've attached the reported center on a IR map. It looks like they took the hurricane hunter's vortex recon of the area SW of the storm. Guess my big question is: why were they investigating down there rather than where the big convection flare up and the apparent rotational center is? Is there something I'm missing?
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Parts of Texas are in the cone for later down the road. Only predicting TS status. Getting interesting for sure.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Hugh I was referencing the model which had Dolly going to LA or northeast TX....but since it never developed as fast as the ...it will not make it that far north....also land interaction will keep it down some until later Monday...keeping this weaker...longer..and heading towards NE MX.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I'm not seeing nw motion. I think you can pick out vort center on rgb with recent flareup right over the center around 18.8N - 84W
- main convection is northeast of center giving illusion of a more northward component. I'm seeing wnw motion. I think models will verify just further north than where they are initialized now. Texas and mexico need to keep an eye on this one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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