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Last week in June with a couple of waves we are watching. Nothing imminent.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #81526 - Fri Aug 15 2008 09:15 PM Attachment (279 downloads)

looks like the 00Z tropical run suite shifted west again some.... Apalachicola bay more centered now.

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
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Ronn
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms [Re: MichaelA]
      #81527 - Fri Aug 15 2008 09:15 PM

Fay is moving at a good clip, so I suspect that the thrashing its circulation will take over central and western Hispanola will be minimized to some extent, although it may very well drop to TD status tomorrow morning. So far, the circulation has held up very well, and Fay will probably intensify quickly between the time it exits Hispanola and the time it reaches Cuba.

It is far too early to determine the eventual track of the storm. Too many unknowns exist to give us a very good feel for the track even during the near term. The strength of the storm, possible relocations of the center, and when and to what extent the weakness develops in the ridge to the north, will all significantly affect future movement. As of now, we don't have a good handle on any of these variables.

Anyone from the northern Gulf coast to the southeast Atlantic coast should begin preparing for a possible storm early next week. The current forecast brings Fay into Florida as early as Monday, so there really isn't much time to prepare. Preparations should be completed over the weekend.


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Morgan Palmer K5TVT
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #81528 - Fri Aug 15 2008 09:17 PM

yes, the radar signature was certainly helpful. I like the track as is. I'd love to see how much rain will actually fall in the highlands when all is said and done. I don't think there are stations interior over Hispaniola. Pse correct me if I'm wrong. Too bad the people most likely to be killed are those least likely to know what's coming. Common theme in the past couple years!

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Meteorologist. WBBH TV Fort Myers


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metwannabe
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms [Re: Ronn]
      #81529 - Fri Aug 15 2008 09:31 PM

Someone a couple of days ago made the statement that this was a "fighter" and that worried them. I am surprised to see just how much a fighter Fay has become. It has fought off SAL, shear, dry air and now it is showing some of the best organization yet, even as it passes over the "rock".

Once it clears land nothing to impede its development and as so many have already noted, now is the time to prepare.

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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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MichaelA
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #81530 - Fri Aug 15 2008 09:50 PM

The models are going to shift left or right on each run until they get a better handle on this system. Initial data is still probably fairly sparse.

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Michael

PWS


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chase 22
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms [Re: Ed in Va]
      #81532 - Fri Aug 15 2008 09:57 PM

Quote:

It's hard to locate the center, but it appears to be quite a bit to the NE of the forecast position. I don't think we can get a good read on its future until it gets more developed.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html




I don't see where the center is quite a bit to the NE of the forcast position. If anything, she looks to be reforming the center to her South

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Matt


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craigm
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Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #81533 - Fri Aug 15 2008 10:09 PM

This storm has always been about the healthy mid and upper level development with weak reflection at the surface. That could explain why the mountians are not beating Fay up more. Mid level (500mb) heights fluctuate around 18,000 ft. and unless we're in Nepal that won't be an issue. Intensity will have a direct correlation with time over open water which wil be determined by her eventual track. Everyone needs to watch this.

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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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MichaelA
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms [Re: chase 22]
      #81535 - Fri Aug 15 2008 10:29 PM

Quote:

I don't see where the center is quite a bit to the NE of the forcast position. If anything, she looks to be reforming the center to her South



The convection is going to fire more over the warmer water than over land over night. Latest IR sat pics are showing some raggedness indicating the terrain is beginning to have some influence on the system.

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Michael

PWS


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damejune2
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms [Re: MichaelA]
      #81537 - Fri Aug 15 2008 11:59 PM

I suppose even if the storm does stay offshore along the west coast of FL we will still feel it, correct? Being on the eastern side is not the place to be? If it was quite a ways out in the gulf no worries but i am thinking it will hug the coast...any ideas on that?

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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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JonB
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms [Re: damejune2]
      #81538 - Sat Aug 16 2008 12:30 AM

Yes, you would feel it. It depends on how close it tracks and what the wind profile looks like when it gets there. The center point is deceiving. Storms affect how huge area. Francis and Jeanne in 04 came in near Stuart, FL and there was wide spread damage in Brevard County an 1.5 hrs north.

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Survived:
Gloria '85, Bob '91, Irene '99, Francis & Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Fay 08'


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Loudest Tundra in Florida
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms [Re: damejune2]
      #81539 - Sat Aug 16 2008 12:33 AM

Quote:

I suppose even if the storm does stay offshore along the west coast of FL we will still feel it, correct? Being on the eastern side is not the place to be? If it was quite a ways out in the gulf no worries but i am thinking it will hug the coast...any ideas on that?




We will feel it, and yes, the East side of the storm is usually the rougher side... Its a wait and see game from this point.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms [Re: Loudest Tundra in Florida]
      #81540 - Sat Aug 16 2008 12:42 AM

You guys are correct. Those of us on the west coast of Florida have less margin for error if it is to our west. The eye could pass 50-100 miles west and still bring us rain, possibly tornados, high surf and seas and many other problems. But, if it passes 50-100 miles EAST of us, then the effects should be much less. I am almost exactly 40 miles west of where Charlie passed and here, there was no damage, little wind and really not much of anything. Of course it was a pretty compact storm. No telling how large Fay will be when in this area. The point is, there is much greater danger 'in the cone' east of the center (and for a larger distance 'off the center line' of a cyclone than the same distance west of the center.

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


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danielwAdministrator
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East Side of Storm [Re: damejune2]
      #81542 - Sat Aug 16 2008 01:19 AM

Quote:

I suppose even if the storm does stay offshore along the west coast of FL we will still feel it, correct? Being on the eastern side is not the place to be? If it was quite a ways out in the gulf no worries but i am thinking it will hug the coast...any ideas on that?




If the present forecast track, along the West Coast of FL, proves to be the track the storm takes.
Florida will take a heck of a beating. Even a Tropical Storm running the length of the Coastline will damage infrastructure to some degree. Western Coastline is at least 5 degrees long. That's over 300 miles of damage at some level. Add the Eastern Semicircle of the Storm being onshore for the 300 miles and you have raised the damage factor quite a bit.

I haven't looked at an intensity forecast since early yesterday afternoon. At that point the SHIPS was forecasting 92knots.


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berrywr
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New Center Reforming South near coast? [Re: chase 22]
      #81544 - Sat Aug 16 2008 01:58 AM

Like one of the people who posted, I'm inclined to believe as of 2 am ET, there is in fact a new center developing along the coast and for the moment there are two centers, one weakening on the north side of the island, the other just offshore on the south, both embedded in overall circulation as the system moves west.

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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allan
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms [Re: MikeC]
      #81545 - Sat Aug 16 2008 03:08 AM

The new EURO has shifted back to the East Coast putting me in grave danger. Landfall - St. Augustine/Jacksonville, FL area
I live 30 minutes south of there. Again, I would not be surprised if this pans out, the weakness is there. It reminds me a whole lot of Charley (2004). About the COC, it's so easily clear that it is now crossing into Haiti or is it the DR..... Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is very dangerous where Fay is forecasted to head to. The deep waters surrounding Jamaica has the highest heat potential and once Fay reaches that point, it should grow more then predicted due to past storms. It seems like fay is keeping it's strength over land, looking a bit ragid now. Fay should keep at minimal TS strength and then strengthen tomorrow as it heads to those oh so warm waters of the Caribbean.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Sat Aug 16 2008 03:09 AM)


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms [Re: allan]
      #81548 - Sat Aug 16 2008 03:24 AM

Clark just started a new Thread and new Main Page Article. Keep in mind that the posts there must relate to the Main Page and that there is a Thread already in the Forecast Lounge for model speculation and gut feelings, etc..otherwise it will probably be moved or deleted.

Thanks Clark! I bet thanks also to Mrs.Evans too for letting you stay up!

Copy posted to the new Thread

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 16 2008 03:35 AM)


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