willw
Weather Watcher
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I was looking at the WTVT radar and i see a North west movement.I dunno about this whole " it's going north" i was watching the radar. They circled the center and the center was moving NW. It even showed the western eyewall building.So i wouldn't buy this going to naples or below just yet...
Id also like to add that its been going over mountains. so it's bouncing... it very well once over water resume NW movement...
Edited by willw (Mon Aug 18 2008 10:25 AM)
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FIREREALTY
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Loc: BOCA RATON, FL
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I don't know,,,when u look at the NWS KeyWest Radar Long loop,,,clearly shows wrap-around area,,and that area is moving north...I'm wondering if the notion of 'not to panic the east coasters early' will be a mistake.....when the word comes later and ' oh,,sorry,,u have about 18 hrs notice" may not fly well.....granted is only a Cat 1,..
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mikethewreck
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Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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Fay is not a Cat 1, still a 50 mph TS. The spin up to Cat 1 was predicated on a swing through the GOM. If Fay gets sucked in to Florida further south or east than anticipated, we may not see anything worse than a TS in the state.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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I definitely see a NNW component of the eye looking at Key West radar. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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Storm Cooper
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A reminder as we progress with Fay....If you post on the MainPage it should refer to it . Model speculation should go to the Forecast Forum as well as "gut feelings" and such. Please refrain from the words "wow" and "holy crap" in your posts. This is not the place for things like that and please do not repost entire copies of discussions, advisories, RECON etc.
If you have a point to make in regard to some of the above info a "partial" copy is fine otherwise a minute by minute post is not needed.
Things are getting a bit busy and as they do posts if not properly placed will be moved/edited or deleted to include the Graveyard.... Read the Rules when in doubt.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Aug 18 2008 10:58 AM)
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Josh Delsman
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Loc: Miami, FL
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I would definitely say that Fay has taken a northward component after looking at it over night. Here is a pretty good resource that has just been added to Weather underground in the last couple weeks.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?l...ur=0&fire=0
I think the center should be able to be tracked via BYX over the next couple of hours to see if the forecast for the next 24 hours validates. All I know is that those storms look messy, and I don't particularly want to drive to work and back in them! 
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MichaelA
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The has already stated that the apparent center as seen on radar is not the low level center, but the mid to upper level center. We won't know the exact location of Fay until she moves off of Cuba and the recon can get a true fix.
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Michael
PWS
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willw
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I am just saying.. I think it's too early to say the west coast north of sarasota is safe..
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Ronn
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Key West long range radar shows a circulation along the northern coast of Cuba about 70 miles east of Havana, or about 23.1N, 81.2W. If this is the actual surface circulation, it has moved rather quickly to this point since the 5pm advisory, and it will soon emerge over water. The surface circulation could be a little farther south of this point, but without recon info, visible sat, and adequate radar imagery, we really can't tell. I'm interested to see where the places the center at the 8pm advisory.
If the surface center is at this spot, the storm is not too poorly organized and will likely begin intensifying shortly. There does seem to be more convection on the western side than several hours ago, even though it is not tightly wrapped at this point.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It's definitely too early to declare that anywhere is in the clear. Right now, we're seeing a severely disrupted system. Whether Fay can reform and intensify as she moves away from Cuba over the straights is now the question.
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Michael
PWS
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Fay is stronger...up to 60 mph and about to emerge off the Cuban coast...this was probably stronger than we realized.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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MichaelA
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The 8AM advisory now has Fay at 60 MPH, but that is more than likely over the water away from the actual center of circulation. The did not indicate exactly where those winds were found by recon. Anyone have that data?
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Michael
PWS
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Quote:
KW radar is definitely showing a 'center' of rotation. It is the rain bands going west to east at the bottom of the image and you can see the rotation of the radar images. They might wake up in the morning in MIA and see they have Fay at their doorstep...literally
I wake up this morning to see that my obs last night (at 12:45am) were indeed correct when most were telling me I was wrong. The center DID relocate last night. I hope not too many people are taken by surprise this morning. This is looking more like a S FL event more a headache for MIA than TPA
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Brett Addison
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It's amazing that the Fay crossed the area of Cuba that is relatively flat if you look at the topography of Cuba. Now it appear the center is back over water (barely) and is heading more west-northwest almost paralleling the Cuban coast. Anyone living on both the west or east coast of Florida should not let their guard down.
Check out these radar loops:
Key west long range radar loop
Key west weather underground radar loop
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Quote:
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER OF FAY OVER
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT APPARENT IN
RADAR IMAGERY. WITH THIS FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10.
ASCAT DATA SOUTH OF CUBA PRIOR TO LANDFALL SHOWED THE SURFACE
CENTER BECOMING ELONGATED...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE
ASYMMETRY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DISTORTION OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OVER CUBA.
That is from 5 AM. The center did not relocate at all during the night. It turned more northerly as it crossed Cuba.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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Looking back at the Cuban radar:
Cuban Radar
And the satellite picture:
Rainbow W Carib Sat
does it look to you like a potential LLC is showing SOUTH of Cuba (look straight down from the tip of the Florida peninsula, under the southern Cuba coast, ESE from the Isle of Pines [comma shaped island under the SE end of Cuba]), relatively stationary, generating some limited convective activity? If so, Fay is a VERY elongated storm! (Picture with pointing arrow attached.)
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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The Rainbow image was excellent..and if you check the box for "Forecast Points", you can see that it is indeed moving to the NW or NNW, not directly north. Fay also seems to be getting her act together rather quickly, too. I think a few more hours of watching her movements + more recon data will give us all (including the ) a better grasp on what Fay is planning to do. If she was at 60mph as she was just coming off the coast of Cuba, that warmer water may give her more juice than any of us..on both coasts...want to see.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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No, that's not any type of rotational center. The LLC is clearly just north of Cuba now. What you are seeing is convection playing tricks with your eyes.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Checking (again) the satellite views, it looks as though Fay's western side is expanding.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Torrington, CT
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This may need to be moved, not sure.....
I don't understand how when the storm is within 24 hours of hitting the west coast of FL how they can still have "watches" posted. The way this county works is they wont shut down schools and such until the warnings are posted. Wondering why is waiting so long to post warnings and why do they have warnings issued for east coast near Melbourne and West Palm, but not here?!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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