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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 229 (Idalia) , Major: 229 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 229 (Idalia) Major: 229 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #82198 - Tue Aug 19 2008 12:45 AM

Quote:



Thats weird. Is this normal for a storm like this to do such a thing?




There are no normals with tropical systems...especially those in the Gulf. The Gulf of Mexico has long been known to meteorologists as the "Graveyard of busted forecasts".

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: wxman007]
      #82199 - Tue Aug 19 2008 12:45 AM

It is interesting to consider that there are now about 6 models that are showing a possible hard left turn after it crosses the state.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #82200 - Tue Aug 19 2008 12:52 AM

Just to clarify Jason's explanation a little bit more with a few additions -

The trof passing to Fay's north is what will probably turn her NNE-NE across the state and perhaps drop her offshore - maybe allowing her to sit and stall out east of Jacksonville, as one of the more preferred scenarios - Under this passing trof, a ridge of high pressure builds in -- maybe to stall Fay out even more, at least initially, and then, perhaps, shove her inland into Georgia or back across Florida and out into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: dolfinatic]
      #82201 - Tue Aug 19 2008 12:53 AM

I had a conversation with Clark tonight, and we are somewhat confused as to how the GFDL and HWRF are coming up with their forecasts, especially since the GFDL uses the GFS for it's inital data.

Strange as it may seem, the GFS solution is quite possible, especially since the ECMWF (probably the best model in the world right now) backs it up with the same idea, just a bit further north. The tracks that just plow NNW at high speed just don't make sense.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: wxman007]
      #82202 - Tue Aug 19 2008 01:04 AM

Thought this was of interest... the P-3 that is out there now.. Ms. Piggy.. took off at 11pm CDT... one of the NOAA research guys has limited internet access on the plane... and his position is showing up on http://www.spotternetwork.org/ out in the GOM.. of course there already south of Miami now... but its cool to see that the sat. internet is work and or he has the spotternetwork software running on his computer/workstation. Like to see an LSR from the center! lol

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 19 2008 01:35 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: wxman007]
      #82203 - Tue Aug 19 2008 01:04 AM

I agree with my fellow Mets on the GFDL model. I dont see Fay racing NNW into that ridge after 48hrs. First 48hrs are pretty clear about a crossover the state. Where exactly it emerges and the strength of the ridge building in will determine the W or WNW movement back across florida. Anywhere from the Cape-Savannah need to pay close attention over the next few days. Infact the next 24 hrs will be very important.,but lets focus on her current landfall as she still can be a Cat 1 by 5am.

Edited by scottsvb (Tue Aug 19 2008 01:07 AM)


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: scottsvb]
      #82204 - Tue Aug 19 2008 02:04 AM

Starting to rain in stuart, i just got back from the beach its blowing pretty hard on the beach and gusty, but the second i walked over the dune line 50% had dicapted id gues a godd 30 gusting to 40. Im waiting to see what this line of storms brings us there is a tornado warning to west of me 15 miles.

Oh yeah pressure 994


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: wxman007]
      #82205 - Tue Aug 19 2008 02:56 AM

Either I have been watching the radar loop too long or does it look like it has stalled? And if so is this because fay is feeling the ridge building back in?

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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: dolfinatic]
      #82206 - Tue Aug 19 2008 02:59 AM

TWC just said it is stalled. They also seem to think it will make landfall around Marco Island

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: wxman007]
      #82207 - Tue Aug 19 2008 03:03 AM

Quote:

I had a conversation with Clark tonight, and we are somewhat confused as to how the GFDL and HWRF are coming up with their forecasts, especially since the GFDL uses the GFS for it's inital data.

Strange as it may seem, the GFS solution is quite possible, especially since the ECMWF (probably the best model in the world right now) backs it up with the same idea, just a bit further north. The tracks that just plow NNW at high speed just don't make sense.




I was glad to see that the GFDL came around somewhat to the GFS idea with its 00Z run tonight, showing a storm backing to the west around the building ridge before turning northward on its eastern periphery. The HWRF does the same now too, just a bit further north and faster. Ultimately, we have two camps for the post-Florida peninsula landfall:

1) One camp of models (GFS, NAM, UKMET, ECMWF) suggests a slow movement NNE-NE across the state before slowing further, turning westward, and moving toward the Gulf.
2) Another camp of models (GFDL, HWRF, Canadian) suggests the same movement across the state before turning northwest toward GA or SC, then accelerating northward across the eastern US.

The difference between these camps appears to lie in how they handle the eventual evolution of the ridge that builds in across the eastern US. The latter camp erode it and do not reinforce it from the west, instead showing a deeper trough entering from the midwest and accelerating the storm toward the Great Lakes. The former camp reinforces it from the west, showing a weaker trough from the midwest that deamplifies as it moves eastward, allowing the storm to become trapped in the southeast.

Ultimately, we've got a lot of Florida for Fay to get across first with an uncertain intensity picture, with radar data from Key West and Miami both showing a partial eyewall forming, about 50-60% closed and 20 or so miles in diameter. Pressures have slowly fallen through the evening but the surface winds haven't done the same. It's still possible for Fay to become a hurricane before landfall in the early morning on the coast south of Naples, but time is running short. Nevertheless, the gradually improving inner core suggests that Fay should be able to maintain itself reasonably well as it moves across Florida in the next couple of days, bringing heavy rains and the threat for isolated tornadoes as it does so. It is way too early to speculate as to what may be left of Fay when it gets to the Atlantic -- if it gets to the Atlantic -- yet alone to the Gulf. However, those from South Carolina around to Mobile should still keep an eye on the evolution of Fay and the upper level synoptic pattern the next couple of days. If nothing else, there are bound to be some good rains around for the next few days.

--------------------
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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: the cobra maneuver [Re: Clark]
      #82211 - Tue Aug 19 2008 05:02 AM

Very nasty out this morning about 4miles inland near Stuart. Wind gusts and heavy rain woke me up. Fay is moving so slow now I am curious if she tracks closer to the Atlantic and her SE and NE quadrants are out over water how much strengthening could occur. Although Fay is nothing like Wilma, there was obvious strengthening with Wilma as she approached the coast.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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