MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just a note, the site update and move was completed tonight in under an hour, we should be ok for Gustav and Hanna, although traffic will still likely cause us to tweak the site through the coming days. Thanks to the Donators to help make it possible.
Gustav just had another Recon fix, and pressure is down to 975mb, it still has a shot at strengthening overnight. We'll be watching it, it's starting to pick up forward motion now moving Northwest at 12mph.
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smorse22
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: North Port, Fl
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Hard to believe that Gustav is heading nw on a straight bee line to LA. From 8pm advisory.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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That's a great question...and probably one the mets could answer better than me.
THAT being said, here are my thoughts on that scenario. Gustav interacted with Haiti and Jamaica, and is much further south of where Hanna is now. Hanna is north of the water where Gustav is and if the models pan out, it looks like Hanna may go north of Cuba.
Point being, I do not think that Gustav has disrupted any of the water that Hanna may *possibly* be entering in the future.
Just my own thoughts on that - take it for what it's worth. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I stiill have a hard time comprehending how close Hanna is to Gustav and how well both systems are put together. Normally, systems this close to each other would shear themselves, wouldn't they? Of course there are some big mountains in between.
What's the long-long term forecast for Hanna (unpredictable, I know).?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I am wondering what to believe myself as far as Hanna is concerned. Her forecast track is so wobbly and erratic that it will probably be a few days or more before we really have a good idea on her destination. It's funny though....another web site, accu-******* is predicting Hanna will be a Cat 2 in a few days; i often wonder where they get their info.
Perhaps if Hanna was a larger system maybe then would she interact more with Gustav, but as it is now says it will be a few days more till she feels outflow from Gustav.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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jessiej
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
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I'm not real sure about the Fujiwhara Effect, so how close do two hurricanes have to be for this to happen? If Hanna takes a Western track, and Gustav takes the Eastern most track, does this come into play?
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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katchatu
Registered User
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Quote:
question for a met....i have seen a number of north moving landfalling hurricanes (Dennis, Erin, Opal, , and ) when they begin to interact with land, make a jump to the right. erin and moved most noticable, and about 50 miles. Is there any scientific eveidence that supports this, or is it all coincidence?
I too, would be interested in an answer or theory to the above question. As someone whose house was destroyed by in Grande Lagoon, a subdivision in Perdido, just west of P'cola near the Florida/Alabama border, I've noticed this phenomenon also.
Godspeed to all who are in Gustav path.
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Storm Cooper
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This is really not the best Forum to say this, but now I am not sure anymore. Accu******* gets their info from the same sources as everyone else. I am not saying they are bad but they are commercial. They are paying bills and in my opinion with their "longer" track they add to Hype. A few years ago the model data seemed almost "secret" in a way. Now, every commercial outlet throws them out with a very shallow reason of what they are. ( Not all JK ) just most including the . The dollar still rules.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 30 2008 01:00 AM)
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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SC - You know, I was just mulling over the same thoughts today. I have on now and have for the last 2 days (as I live in S.Fla) and noticed the "out of corner of their mouths plugs" I also noticed, no names be mentioned, just tune in...I was somewhat stupified and turned off by the some of the alarmist like comments some of the folks are making about both these storms over at . I mean, I understand the desire to make sure all know about the "potential" of what may (or may not) be..but I did find it all a bit "over the top" Again, not meaning to bad mouth anyone, but, for some folks who only tune in when something's cooking...they could get the wrong impression. I think all sources just really need to focus on this: If you live in a storm proned area, you should already and always have supplies and a solid plan...period.
I do have a question to anyone more knowledgable than myself (read most everyone) as to Hanna. Do we know if she's slated to slow her foward speed over the next 24-36 hrs. If so, how will that set up or come into play with the High and ULL and possibly the chance that she may turn out to be just a really close call the Southern ?
I would appreciate any links/explaination that my help me suss this one out for myself.
At this time however, I just don't see how she makes the hard southwest turn...unless the high sets up stronger and more easterly.
Edited by native (Sat Aug 30 2008 02:31 AM)
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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not sure if this is the right place BUT.....
I am deploying to the NOLA EOC tomorrow (saturday). I'll be happy to provide updates and info from the "front line" there.
So far....no one in NOLA is taking chances. amazing resources are being mobilized. FEMA has carte blanche (hence me being pulled in). This is not to be a repeat of when it comes to response.
What we are expecting now from Gustav if for NOLA to be on the N/NE/SE side of the storm. As most here know....that is the "wet" part of a hurricane. Plus the storm surge will be pushed the most to the "right" side of the storm.
There is still some expectation (call it hope) that the storm will track further west....and some models support that. Only time will tell for sure on that. To be sure....the further the track west....the better off NOLA will be.
i will try and report back when i can. probably late saturday.
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
I do have a question to anyone more knowledgable than myself (read most everyone) as to Hanna. Do we know if she's slated to slow her foward speed over the next 24-36 hrs. If so, how will that set up or come into play with the High and ULL and possibly the chance that she may turn out to be just a really close call the Southern ?
I would appreciate any links/explaination that my help me suss this one out for myself.
At this time however, I just don't see how she makes the hard southwest turn...unless the high sets up stronger and more easterly.
The same blocking high configuration that steered Fay westward across the Peninsula will likely be in place for Hanna. As the ULL pulls away she should stall and weaken a bit in the face of some SW shear, then the high will reassert itself and should push Hanna SW thru the Florida Straits and very possibily into the GOM.
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Jason Kelley
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
I am deploying to the NOLA EOC tomorrow (saturday). I'll be happy to provide updates and info from the "front line" there. (...) I will try and report back when i can. probably late saturday.
First, thank you for keeping us informed! Yes, please do keep us posted.
I understand that Nagin is thinking of ordering the evacuation of NO tomorrow Sat. What percentage of the population do you expect to be leaving? What are the plans to assist those who will not be able to leave if the levees breach again?
As far as I know, with only actually got Cat1 force winds and the eye made landfall on the right of NO. This time, you are looking at a possible Cat3 and you will be in the right quadrant. Be very, very careful, this might end up being a far more powerful hurricane.
Stay safe and God bless.
VS
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Gustav is approaching the deep hot water at 81W, and is already growing a thick deep red (or white) band on satellite in the entire NW quadrant which is now over that area. These are the beginnings of rapid intensification and the pressure bombing out.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2008/loopcurrent_aug24.png
edit by redingtonbeachguy -- thanks lunkerhunter. I put together an outline in a few messages below this so folks might understand it all a bit better. I'm sure the mets here will be discussing it too.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sat Aug 30 2008 04:49 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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I think Hanna hit a wall tonight... and maybe is stuck... i just don't think she's moving to the wnw at 14mph... maybe ssw at 5?.... take a look... the surface low can be seen on IR... whether this is short term or long term... i do not know... but its like the shear caused to the surface center to almost stall? a new center may try to form under the mid-level center? or is being pulled back to the covection... but hanna is not doing what is she is forecasted to do... in my opinion, thanks to the ULL to the west
look at 65w 21.5n
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
NIce graphic to show what Gustav has ahead of him...
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/270531main_gustav_20080829_lg.jpg
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 30 2008 04:44 AM)
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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There's a lot of talk developing about Gustav heading toward the Loop Current so I drew a quick overlay of Gustav's current projected path over the Loop while showing the current heat indexes there as shown by LSU.
That gif is attached to this message. Since I'm not a Met, please use it for educational purposes only - not for tracking.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Recon has found a pressure of 969mb, and it looks like they are passing through the eye because winds are almost calm
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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Dropsonde in the eye showing 971mb at the surface.
Wonder if they'll update him to a Cat 2 at 2am.
Edited by flahurricane (Sat Aug 30 2008 05:14 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT12 KNHC 300519
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 30/04:47:00Z
B. 19 deg 35 min N
080 deg 37 min W (54 miles (87 km) to the ENE (69°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. 700 mb 2843 m
D. 76 kt (~ 87.5mph)
E. 339 deg 020 nm
F. 069 deg 084 kt (From the ENE at ~ 96.7mph)
G. 337 deg 026 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 5 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1307A GUSTAV OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WND 85 KT SE QUAD 04:54:10 Z
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 30 2008 05:44 AM)
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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist
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Still a cat 1 according to . But quickly strengthening.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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04:47:30Z
19.550N 80.600W
696.9 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
2,879 meters(~ 9,446 feet)
969.5 mb (~ 28.63 inHg)
Data from the Plane, which reflects the pressure given prior to the VORTEX. appears to be using the dropsonde pressure in the Advisory.
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