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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 80 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Gulf Low
      #85397 - Sat May 16 2009 08:06 PM

12:30AM Update - 05/23/09
Just as it seemed that the gulf low was written off, it has managed to develop some convection near the center. The low is still disorganized not close to being classified at this time, but the NHC has given the system a 30 - 50% chance to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or so before it makes landfall.


10AM Update - 05/21/09
Upper level low pressure system beginning to develop a surface reflection near 25.5N 86W at 21/13Z and it is currently drifting to the north northeast. Upper level steering is weak (and the upper low is cut off) but forward motion should become more north northwesterly to northwesterly in the next day or two - perhaps more toward the Alabama/Mississippi state line - keeping Florida in the soup for another day or two. Flooding potential likely to continue in east central Florida through Friday with additional heavy rainfall over already saturated areas.
ED


7:00 PM Update 5/19/09
Chances for development have fallen off greatly, but we are still getting loads of rain in Central Florida.

10:00 PM Update 5/18/09
Nothing much new to report, models project the system to move more northward then westward across Florida. There is less than a 30% chance of anything developing from this system. Rain over Florida will continue to be enhanced by the system.

Winds will stay brisk because of the pressure gradient, closer to a subtropical or extratropical system.

Site fixes tonight include the animated model plots working (see bottom of this article), and a few other minor tweaks. General Info is still broken currently. (Pre-Season disturbance is rushing a few things)

2:30 PM Update 5/18/09
The system mentioned here is being tracked as Invest 90L now, being early, automated tracking here and on some other sites may take a while to show up.

Approx 22.4N+76.0W (Near the Bahamas)

More to come soon...

Original Update
It looks to be a wet week coming up across most of Florida.

A low pressure system near Cuba looks likely to interact with a frontal boundary causing a great deal of rain for mid-week here in Florida, with the gradient making it a bit windy. Although development isn't entirely likely, the system currently over Cuba has the potential to become somewhat tropical, although it likely will remain just a low pressure area.



Models (such as the GFS and EURO -- see some Here) currently project it to move into or just west of south Florida then stay west of Florida and move it into the Central Gulf near Alabama to Missouri. This may change later. There are no indications of strengthening, but it is worth watching. The front and the gradient should keep things wet and breezy in Florida through the middle of the week. This is good news for the fires in the Central Florida area, as long as the rain comes with the gradient winds.

Even though Hurricane Season does not officially start until June 1st, we will be watching it.


91L Event Related Links


float1latest.gif stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2009&storm=1 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 91L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Cuban Radar

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #85399 - Sat May 16 2009 09:21 PM

The Season Starts Early Again.... Questions will be..is this tropical or subtropical...probably subtropical until it gets more into the gulf, but too early to tell. Models are converging on a Florida rainmaker and extact strength is up in the air for now. Lets just wait for more model runs thru Monday 12Z to find a good scenerio.. I feel a hurricane hunter might go check this out Monday afternoon or Tuesday.

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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #85400 - Sat May 16 2009 09:43 PM

So far - here in the Keys - we've barely gotten any rain from it (well Key Largo got a good drenching). Been nearly a month without rain. Not too happy however about a season trying to start early. - take care

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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 157
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #85401 - Sat May 16 2009 10:52 PM

I'm not too worried about this system developing, but I am worried about potential tornadic activity that this system interacting with a frontal boundary over Florida may cause, so I'll definitly keep my eyes open over the next few days when I'm out and about.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85402 - Sun May 17 2009 12:32 AM

Well really thats all this system is going to be.. a big rainmaker florida..the tornado threat will be there also..especially to the north and east of the system. I dont feel this will be tropical..maybe subtropical. Cold air aloft and shear will hamper any real tropical develoment.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
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Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: scottsvb]
      #85403 - Sun May 17 2009 09:30 AM

A few things this morning, models are still a bit wonky on this one, but there is no low level circulation with this low, it may develop something at the low levels a day or two from now. Most of the precipitation will likely be on the eastern to southern sides, ala Florida. If this were July or August, we'd really have to be careful. Here in May, it's a welcome sight for parts of Florida that need the rain badly.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: scottsvb]
      #85404 - Sun May 17 2009 09:31 AM

I've been watching the satellites this morning and the forecast area of interest in the Caribbean is undergoing development at a fair pace.

I would rank it at a 5 or 6, with 10 being rapid development.

Currently the SE and Southern side of the system has the most convection. Time will tell.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: danielw]
      #85406 - Sun May 17 2009 12:19 PM

Coincidence or not. Recon has a plane in St Croix as of Mid-Afternoon on Saturday (yesterday).
AF304 landed approximately 1943Z.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: danielw]
      #85408 - Sun May 17 2009 12:29 PM

It is getting attention.....small part of TAE discussion...

ALSO...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GOMEX DURING THIS
TIME...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: danielw]
      #85409 - Sun May 17 2009 12:58 PM

Bear watching......

Could be transient, but this area just east of Jamaica has really started to appear to "spin up". Albiet small and likely mid level, will be interesting to see if the upper air will relax enough to permit an eventual stacked system to form. In this case, I could see eventual tropcal characteristics ( as opposed to simply subtropical ). Have not yet even looked at surface obs or SST's as of yet, however.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: weathernet]
      #85410 - Sun May 17 2009 01:21 PM

SSTs in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are running between 80 and 82ºF, so there is some heat content to work with. I'm not sure if this goes to any depth, but these temps are conducive to some development. At any rate, it will be an interesting week here in West Central FL. We certainly need the rain.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: weathernet]
      #85411 - Sun May 17 2009 01:25 PM

Kingston Jamaica Airport Observations for the last 6 hours.
Last four obs show a veering wind. Indicative of a N to NE movement of system generating the wind. This is a rough estimate.
14z 270 at 7kt system should be North of Airport
17z 330 at 10kt system should be NE of Airport

MKJP 171700Z 33010KT 9999 FEW018 BKN090 BKN220 25/21 Q1012
MKJP 171600Z 31008KT 9999 FEW022 SCT034 BKN090 25/21 Q1012
MKJP 171500Z 28005KT 99999 -RA FEW018 BKN080 24/21 Q1013
MKJP 171400Z 27007KT 99999 -RA FEW022 BKN080 24/21 Q1012
MKJP 171300Z 32008KT 9999 -RA FEW022 OVC080 23/21 Q1012
MKJP 171200Z 09008KT 9999 -RA FEW022 OVC080 24/22 Q1012


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: danielw]
      #85412 - Sun May 17 2009 04:35 PM

interesting........Those Jamaica obs you posted would at least indicate some reflection at the surface. Perhaps a weak wave is mixed up within this "trough soup"? BTW, those SST's I think Michael referenced in the E. Cenral Gulf of 80-82F, even if shallow, could easily substantiate subtropical or tropical development.

Won't even dare look at the CMC model; am sure its got some low wraped with over 3,000 tightly packed isobars around it. Intensity ( and humor ) aside, can anyone tell me if the Canadian model at least has proven marginally effective in any aspect of tropical cyclone forecast such as motion?


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 157
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: danielw]
      #85413 - Sun May 17 2009 04:42 PM

Latest satellite INVEST images from GOES TropFlot One shows some of the convection around the approx center of circulation dying down some, but the circulation does appear to be mid-level in nature, with maybe a hint of low level visible now.

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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: weathernet]
      #85414 - Sun May 17 2009 04:57 PM

I don't have statistics on the Canadian Models versus the other Tropical models.
I do recall over the last 4-5 years that the Canadian is usually the one to lead the pack in early prediction.
It performed very well in 2004 and 2005...
Unless they have changed some of the parameters of the models like the U.S. does every year it should be the first one to check.
I use it first and cross check with the GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS for starters.

Use Dr. Robert Hart's site at FSU for a full days worth of weather data viewing.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu On left side of page click the "Web Pages" link and enjoy.


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 375
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: danielw]
      #85415 - Sun May 17 2009 07:10 PM

Nice to see everyone back on their game! Hope everyone had a great off-season (sounds like a sporting event).
It would be GREAT to have a major rain-maker here in central FLA this week! We are at 2 years drought and counting right now. Tampa is now allowing ZERO lawn watering in the city limits. (another good reason NOT to live in the city!) Had about 4 inches this week in Plant City, but we need more than a foot of rain to START overcoming the long-term drought. AND had some reports of hail this week....in one location so thick it covered the ground. POPs for here this week are wavering around 60% at this point and this system could do a LOT for us. Bring it on!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #85416 - Sun May 17 2009 07:18 PM

Mid Level seems to be there, can it work it's way down to the surface? Think so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ft-s.html

Some great loops to watch various levels and slice and dice your way through the system.

A lot depends on where the front stalls out and where the center forms..when it forms. Model tracks will change once there is something at the surface.

Good to see everyone back... good to be here!

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 157
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #85417 - Sun May 17 2009 07:19 PM

Yeah, forum activity is off to a sudden and new start. Even though forum discussion is just now starting, I've been visiting the site frequently during cold front season to get updates on weather advisories and warnings.

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85418 - Sun May 17 2009 08:36 PM

I realize that everybody is expecting some much needed rain from this system in Florida but lets think back to 2007 When Sub Tropical Storm Andrea formed and caused some of the worst fires that the state of Florida as ever seen. It's nice to see everybody again and I hope that you have a safe 2009 cane season James n Mobile,AL

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: LoisCane]
      #85419 - Sun May 17 2009 09:24 PM

Hello everybody! Time to come out of hibernation. Looks like we could get some badly needed rain out of this early system. GFS and ukmet bring rain into Florida. I see the CMC is up to its old tricks.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...&hour=144hr

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist

Edited by craigm (Sun May 17 2009 09:32 PM)


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