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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 80 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: docrod]
      #85442 - Mon May 18 2009 09:14 PM

The frontal system has already taken at least one life. A friend of our family, 18 year old kid, was playing outside with friends in MS when the front came through. Hit by lightning. Died today.

Saw on a weather site (accuweather) that this system could become a named storm, headed over here as soon as I could. Much comforted. Have I told you today how much I appreciate all of you?

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: k___g]
      #85443 - Mon May 18 2009 09:29 PM

Latest radar from Melbourne shows two circulations...one east of Ft. Pierce and the other between Orlando and the east coast south of Daytona.

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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: mikethewreck]
      #85444 - Mon May 18 2009 09:37 PM

Sorry to hear that - we canceled our field work this afternoon for tomorrow watching all the lightening in this system. Sad.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: docrod]
      #85446 - Mon May 18 2009 10:24 PM

Sounds trite maybe but we are a family. Like tropical soup and so many components. Watching pressure drops all over. Nice spin and more scenarios than rain. Rapidly developing situation.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: LoisCane]
      #85447 - Tue May 19 2009 12:28 AM

below is pasted from Key West NWS tonight - our local radar shows signs of a rotation basically west of Key West but I admit this is speculation. Safe to say - it's a mess out there.



SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
AND ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY
FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COVERING THE GULF
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT. AT MID LEVELS...AN EQUALLY COMPLEX
PATTERN PREVAILS...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE STARTING TO
CUT OFF OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF...AND A SEPARATE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE KEYS LIE UNDERNEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW...ALONG THE LEADING FLANK OF A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF.


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Rick99
Unregistered




Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: docrod]
      #85448 - Tue May 19 2009 09:12 AM

I donno', seems like there's a large scale circulation encompassing all of south Florida.

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adam s
Unregistered




Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85449 - Tue May 19 2009 09:25 AM

what are the chances 90L becomes a tropical depression or a tropical storm?

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85450 - Tue May 19 2009 09:52 AM

Quote:

what are the chances 90L becomes a tropical depression or a tropical storm?




Not very good since we haven't had model runs since 00Z. Time to watch for development in the GOM closer to the cold front and that would be INVEST 91L if we even get that far . Still looks like a very wet holiday weekend up here on the Alabama Gulf Coast

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: HCW]
      #85451 - Tue May 19 2009 10:01 AM

Its going to take some time for the low in the straits to be subtropical... maybe 2-3 days...right now its a typical North American low pressure system in all level of the atmosphere with a warm front out to 70W which ingulped 90L....90L though will still be out there (though not designated) it be more like a trough.
Overall the cyclonic low in the straits will move NW off Sarasota tonight then west into the eastern GOM on Weds...alot of rain and strong T-Storms over florida..especially on Weds as florida will be on the humid E side and cyclonic turning in the atmosphere may cause a tornado watch in parts of the state.

91L from this..maybe in a few days!


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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: scottsvb]
      #85452 - Tue May 19 2009 12:30 PM

I think what could be of interest is a trough of low pressure in the Florida Straits, at least it was there Monday evening, I haven't done a surface analysis this morning yet. My surface analysis showed a trough extending from north of Grand Bahama to near the Cayman Islands. Once this thing begins interacting with the front, we could see something spin up in the southeastern Gulf or the Florida Straits.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: weatherguy08]
      #85453 - Tue May 19 2009 04:50 PM

There is still a better chance..old 90L races westward tonight into Weds and develops a small tight core of only 25 miles with winds in excess of 45-50kt (cause of the ridge to its north giving a pressure gradient)to its north side coming ashore from Cocoa Beach to Daytona .... then the cyclonic low off Naples developing in the next 48 hrs...
cyclonic low off SW florida is just that...and not tropical...it will take a few days to become that..and by then...it may have too much dry air that comes down from the southern mississippi valley and really hamper this thing.


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85456 - Tue May 19 2009 11:34 PM

yer right; at mid-level -that was impressive all day - had a great time watching it all morning; but down low it was a mess.

happily 90L-May 2009 is in the books. I don't need 91L anytime soon.

Stay safe everyone - cheers Rod


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 157
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: docrod]
      #85457 - Wed May 20 2009 01:45 AM

It's begun. Tornado warnings have been issued at least three times so far tonight, for thunderstorms moving across Apopka, Cassia, and Titusville. The one for Cassia is still in effect. I seem to be suffering insomnia right now, I hope it's not because something big is in my blood for the rest of the upcoming day today.

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 146
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85458 - Wed May 20 2009 11:58 AM Attachment (413 downloads)

We had a horrible night in New Smyrna Beach. The weather radio warned of two tornadoes south of us, but reports this morning say that a tornado also hit north of us in Port Orange. This morning the winds and rains have picked up *a lot*, the water in our canal is high, the thunderstikes are amazing. One was so loud that I actually saw my walls shaking! We could not even walk our dogs due to the lightening risk (the poor guys could only do their stuff front of our house on very long leashes). I have been living here 7 years now, but this is the worst (non-cyclonic) weather I have ever seen.

What is going on here? Why is there so much thunder and lightening in the air? This is not a cyclone, ok, but is that just a "regular" thunderstorm stuck over East-Central Florida for three days?!?!

Where is all this power coming from?! Not form the tepid waters of the Atlantic, is it?

Take a look at the attached file. Looks like New Smyrna is gonna get it hard today

Thanks for any explanations about what is going on here

Thanks!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma

Edited by vineyardsaker (Wed May 20 2009 12:01 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #85459 - Wed May 20 2009 12:40 PM

cyclonic lows or cold core lows aloft like the 1 we have produce alot of lighting...you have temps about -10 to -15C high in the atmosphere while temps in the lower levels are in the 70s with humid moist conditions. The updraft is really strong producing these high cloud tops. This also produces hail...and its very common with cold core systems aloft... this mainly happens over the plains!

If this was tropical in nature...it would be warmer aloft...thus not producing hail...and alot less lightning.


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 157
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: scottsvb]
      #85460 - Wed May 20 2009 01:37 PM

I'm kind of hoping it doesn't come my way, but even as I say this, I'm looking at animated doppler radar at several lines of thunderstorms advancing over Polk County. It may be just to our north for awhile, but it looks like we'll get some rain later on in the afternoon, which I don't mind. I do mind significant sized hail and tornadoes though. Shoo shoo.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85461 - Wed May 20 2009 05:32 PM

Mobile NWS offers a great summation in the Afternoon Forecast Discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
230 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2009

SHORT TERM...FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
OVER FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WRAPAROUND
DRY SLOT FROM THE MIDLEVEL MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM ALL THE WAY AROUND
THE WESTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN AND THEN CUBA. THERE IS A 500 MB
TROUGH THAT IS ALSO KEEPING THE AIR PRETTY COLD OVER THE SURFACE
CENTER. VERY LITTLE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS BAROTROPIC...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ADVECTIVE PROCESSES TAKING PLACE WITHIN THE LOW. ALL OF
THAT BODES ILL FOR TROPICAL CONVECTION IN A DEEP MOIST LAYER THAT ONE
WOULD EXPECT IN AN EASTERLY WAVE EVOLVING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
WITH ALL THIS DRY AIR AROUND...ENTRAINMENT OF SAME INTO CUMULUS
TOWERS WOULD KILL THEM OFF BEFORE ANY LONG LIVED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. SO THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HARD PRESSED FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR
SO TO LIGHT OFF SUCH A CONVECTIVE CORE REQUIRED TO TRANSITION IT INTO
A WARM CORE SYSTEM SUCH THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURES COULD FALL. THAT
IS...SLIM AND NONE ARE THE RANGES OF PROBABILITY THAT THIS LEOPARD
WOULD CHANGE SPOTS TO STRIPES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=MOB&date=2009-05-20%2019:30:32


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: danielw]
      #85462 - Wed May 20 2009 06:33 PM

Very interesting watching the radar out of Miami during the last few days... you could clearly see the circulation center move W and pull all this rain into FL. Given the water levels in my backyard and the fact that we had some new sod put down last week I was glad we finally got a good soaking.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 146
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: JMII]
      #85463 - Thu May 21 2009 10:14 AM

Another bad night in Volusia County. Huge amounts of rain overnight with thunder and lightening in New Smyrna Beach. Lots of flooding in Ormond Beach too:



Several majors roads are closed in Port Orange (Dunlawton between US1 and Nova).

In my garden an upturned bucket now has over a foot of water, thought at least in the canal in front of my house the water is high, but not catastrophically.

I know we needed the water (had some brushfires just before the rain began), but that is a little too much of a blessing I think

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


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key
Unregistered




Re: Gulf Low [Re: MikeC]
      #85464 - Thu May 21 2009 12:47 PM

satellite image is very impressive at the moment. Anyone else think that politics rather than science is preventing this from being a named storm???

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