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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 80 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today
      #85523 - Mon Jun 01 2009 12:00 AM

Original, June 1st Update
Today is the first day of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. We have had one depression form before the start, but that is no indicator of the rest of the season. There are signs that an El Nino event is arriving, and if so it tends to reduce overall hurricane activity. However, it only takes one strong storm to ruin your day, and they can occur even in otherwise slow years. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 is a great example of that.

This year flhurricane is gearing up to watch another year, and gradually improving the site, we are still working on new features for this year, and you will see them start to pop up as time goes on. We appreciate all the site donators as well, it still is an expensive site to run and maintain and we carry a extreme load of traffic during storm events, mostly for people checking in on the hurricane data and information we provide. If you like the site and want to help see it continue, check out our donations page.

If a major hurricane approaches an area in the United states we will have pages geared to that, including streaming media for that area (like with the Hurricane Ike coverage wall last year). Recorded animations of webcams, radars, and more as storm approaches, real time updated hurricane data, plots, maps, coordinates, and more. Directed discussions, and more interactivity.

The focus this year is to try to show the most relevant information at the time, which is a difficult job, and keep it easy. (You may have noticed the highly interactive site with advisories and radars and other mouse over tooltips for all sorts of things, to attempt the relevant information at hand.) And try to keep misinformation and hype to a minimum. Despite this, some areas will see not much from storms, while others may see a great deal. There is an active wiki attached to the site for the links, general info, and is open for new pages. Feel free to log in and update things there.

This year's storm names are 2009: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter , Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda (List I) . One depression has already formed this year, but no named systems have occurred yet. June is usually a quiet month. Mid August through mid to late September is the usual peak of the season.

Here are some preparedness tips that you can think about now:

Note one major difference this year with preparedness is the digital TV transition which will break most older battery operated televisions. Although there are a few battery operated TVs that now have digital capability all reports so far indicate that they are rather poor quality wise and more expensive (~$30 vs $150) (relative to standard battery operated TVs)

Proper hurricane preparation can make the difference between a minor aggravation and a major catastrophe. Since June first is the start of hurricane season, there is no better time than the present to stock up on supplies. Click here for essentials that should be included on your checklist:

Emergency numbers
Insurance policy paperwork
Lumber and nails for boarding up windows
A week’s supply or water (generally 2 quarts to 1 gallon per person per day)
Ice
Cooler/Ice chest
Beverages (powered, canned or instant)
Cereal
Prepared canned goods (soup, vegetables, fruit, Vienna sausages)
Snack foods such as nuts, chips, crackers and cookies
Spreads such as peanut butter and jelly
Bread
Dried fruits and raw vegetables
Dry and canned pet food
Baby food and formula
Manual can opener
Bottle opener
Pocket knife
Napkins and paper plates
Plastic cups and plastic silverware
Extra batteries
Flashlights and bulbs
Battery operated TV or radio
Wind up or battery powered clock
Garbage bags
Toilet paper
A few changes of clothes and sturdy shoes
Extra pair of contacts and contact solution


If you live within seventy-five miles of the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, you need to have a hurricane plan. The main things you will need to decide on once notified of a hurricane threat are when you’re going to evacuate, how you’re going to take care of yourself and your family during and after the storm and how you’re going to protect your house and personal belongings.

Communication is Key

• Choose at least one friend or family member located out of town to be the emergency contact. Make sure every member of the family has a piece of paper with that person’s contact information and knows to call him or her if they get lost or anything bad happens. Call the designated contact before the weather turns ugly and tell that person your hurricane plan.
• Make sure everyone has important numbers and e-mail addresses programmed into their cell phones and knows how to send text messages and e-mails from their cell phones. (Keep in mind if the storm is strong enough there may be damage to phone towers and phone service may become temporarily unavailable.)

Should you stay or should you go? What to know when trying to decide whether to evacuate.

First, you will need to know if you live in an evacuation zone. To find out, you’re your emergency management office, check the emergency management office website or call your city hall. There are three ways it could go: You will either be able to make the decision yourself whether to evacuate, you will almost always be ordered to evacuate for a hurricane approaching from the water and possibly other directions or you will only be ordered to evacuate for strong storms approaching from the water and not from other directions.

It is strongly advised to leave your home if there is any chance a storm surge could reach it. Storm surges are deadly and not something to take a chance with. Seek an inland shelter or stay with family inland and away from the storm’s path. (You may want to include…) The following problems can result from storm surges:

• Cars left at street level or a lower level or a parking garage will more than likely be ruined
• Streets will be flooded and sand and debris may block passage for emergency vehicles
• It is very likely that the power, water and phone service will be out
• The causeway or access road to the mainland may be temporarily cut off.
• The government may not be able to provide security.
• You may be stuck and on your own in an unpleasant environment for an extended period of time before assistance arrives.

Thanks for checking our site, and let us know any suggestions, problems, or questions in the site forum. You can check the forecast lounge for making guesses about how the year will play out, and add a comment to this article here to let all of us know how prepared (or not) you are for the season.

As we start this season, there is nothing worth noting in the tropics. You can check Jim Williams at Hurricane City for his season kickoff show at 8PM EDT tonight.

As usual, take the word of the National Hurricane Center above any other web site on Hurricanes , including here. We have several mets that work with the site including Ed Dunham and Clark Evans, but we are not official!

As for other sites, there are some really good ones, see the bottom of the main page! My favorites include Mark Sudduth and Mike Watkins at hurricanetrack, Jim Williams at Hurricane City, and Jeff Masters at weather underground. But there is so much more too! I recommend getting informed through a variety of sources, but always treat the word of the National Hurricane Center above all others. When an event comes close to your area local media and government is the best bet for your particular area.


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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: MikeC]
      #85524 - Mon Jun 01 2009 08:45 AM

That is a great read, loaded with great information. The only thing that I didnt see was information about your pets. I would like to add that the safest place for your pets is with you. Call ahead to where you are evacuating to see if they allow pets. If not, there are pet shelters located near you. Please do not leave your pets at home. If you evacuate, please evacuate your pets also.

Lets hope we have a uneventful season. Once again many thanks to all invloved with this site.

Edited by M.A. (Mon Jun 01 2009 08:46 AM)


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GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 15
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: MikeC]
      #85528 - Mon Jun 01 2009 01:00 PM

I would like to add a few items that helped us get through Francis and Jean:

-Get medications filled prior to storm
-Plenty of games/books/glowsticks for the kids

I would love to see a link/reminder for Generator safety. There always seems to be one or two deaths related to improper use of generators that can be avoided with proper instructions and common sense.

GoBigSurf
(Malachi)

--------------------
Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne
etc...etc....etc....


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: M.A.]
      #85529 - Mon Jun 01 2009 01:07 PM

re: Pets - Contact your local emergency management office and find out information about pet-friendly shelters. Find out requirements, what kind of animals they take (many will only take cats and dogs), paperwork you'll need for your pet, etc. In the wake of Katrina, many localities now offer some pet-friendly shelters. Be advised -- they may fill up faster than normal, meaning you might have to evacuate sooner than you would normally expect.

re: Generators - NOW is the time to pull it out, start it, make sure the gas tank is full. Do not wait until a declared emergency to try to get it fixed! NEVER RUN A GENERATOR IN AN ENCLOSED SPACE SUCH AS A GARAGE OR ON A PORCH WITH AN OVERHANG! Also, unless you have had it professionally set-up so you can do it, NEVER connect your generator to your home's electrical system! You can actually risk harming power company workers if power backs up through the lines outside your home.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Jane
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #85530 - Mon Jun 01 2009 01:37 PM

Check out www.ready.gov for all kinds of preparedness information. And don't forget disaster kits for pets!
Also, Red Cross shelters do not allow animals. Check with your local authorites. I know of two county shelters on the Mississippi Coast that allow them.

Many state emergency management agencies plan to use social media (like Twitter) this year get the word out about evacuation routes. (FEMA, too).

One other word of advice: have more than three days cash on hand.

--Jane (who moved to Mississippi from Broward County Florida to help finish up the Hurricane Katrina recovery).

--------------------
Jane
Fort Lauderdale, Florida
http://janesbits.blogspot.com

Edited by Jane (Mon Jun 01 2009 01:38 PM)


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: MikeC]
      #85532 - Mon Jun 01 2009 06:12 PM

Thanks Mike,

Very good reminder list, I'm about to do the same at work with my links list ... I have a couple of "tweaks" to supplement your post if I may ...

Emergency numbers - I keep a hard copy of contacts, friends and family. Don't expect your cell phone to work if towers get blown down (you might forget a phone number if you don't have your cell phone working). Have a hard land line phone available. Lacking that, expensive satellite phones are your only option (I don't have). In case you don't know, many ham radio operators are available to get messages out of disaster zones during emergencies. In Florida they run checks on their "network" daily.

A week’s supply or water (generally 2 quarts to 1 gallon per person per day) - I buy a new 55 gallon trash can every year and tough bags to line it. I fill it with water rather than buy tons of plastic jugs (which can break) or fill a bath tub.

Cooler/Ice chest - "Marine" rated ice chests can keep ice for roughly 5 days if you care not always opening it. They are more expensive but they work far better than a Styrofoam "cooler". Block ice lasts far longer than cube ice.

Manual can opener - I don't think I've used an electric can opener in over 20 years ;>) - lots of cans lately are "pull tops" - watch for them.

I would add to your list ....

Insect repellent - obviously
Matches
Rope
Have a good tool kit you can protect and get too during a storm
"Good" extension cords (in case the power is still on or if you plan to run a generator) - don't leave them in a tool shed across the yard.

If you keep spare gas cans around, make sure they are in good condition.

- my two cents here - everyone stay safe and lets have a quiet one this time - Rod

- ps - I know I've forgotten several things - take care.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: MikeC]
      #85533 - Mon Jun 01 2009 06:18 PM

Well well well, there's an interesting little feature out around 40.5N 24.0W that has a rather interesting appearance in satellite.



Probably not going to do anything, but it's an interesting feature worth pointing out.

(Edited to a static picture from 06/02/2009)

Edited by Bloodstar (Tue Jun 02 2009 03:20 PM)


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: Bloodstar]
      #85534 - Mon Jun 01 2009 06:43 PM Attachment (542 downloads)

Lot of interesting features here too - Off Cape Verde - taken by NASA during the the Hubble repair and refurbish mission ...

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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 157
Loc: Central Florida
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: docrod]
      #85535 - Mon Jun 01 2009 08:03 PM

Yeah I saw the area off of the Cape Verde islands, the NHC has an invest up on GOES AtlanFlot 1 with a 30% probability or less for development of a subtropical cyclone.

And as far as preparation goes, the Polk County Emergency field deployment teams have just wrapped up their annual practice deployment out into the rural countryside known as lake Arbuckle campground. The three day deployment saw teams from Pinellas and Orange counties out to join them, and several bugs have been identified in the gear that they will be working to correct.


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85536 - Mon Jun 01 2009 08:34 PM

Hi - thanks -and- sorry - I was actually trying to lighten up a previous post from mine. We are a long way from worrying from Kármán vortex streets drifting off this way and that at this time. - and this is how NASA characterize the image I posted. - take care - Rod

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: MikeC]
      #85539 - Tue Jun 02 2009 12:07 AM

Good info!

2 more things I have learned:

When phone lines are overloaded, text messages will get thru way more often than voice calls.

If you have to evacuate, figure out how far you *really* need to go and realize that most of the time, going northwest might be better than northeast. If you can - I realize there's not much wiggle room in Florida!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Another GOM Low? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #85549 - Tue Jun 02 2009 07:39 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 89W-93W DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA N OF 26N
AND E OF 89W. THE ENTIRE GULF HAS SE WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 89W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...A WEAK LOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/022330.shtml?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE SHORT TERM MODELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKING OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. ALL MODELS
SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM SOLUTION DEPICTS A
MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND 00Z EURO. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP A LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SOUTH OF
LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS TRACKS A WEAKER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
THE NAM TRACKS THE LOW SLOWLY TO THE EAST ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE
LA COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 00Z EURO SHOWS NO SUCH
FEATURE DEVELOPING. REGARDLESS OF HOW OR EVEN IF THIS LOW FORMS...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.
BOTH MET AND MAV POPS INCREASE TO AT LEAST LIKELY MOST AREAS BY THE
3RD OR 4TH PERIOD. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF TAKING A BLEND OF MOS POP/TEMP
GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS EVENTUAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR CWA BEYOND THIS
PERIOD...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=TAE&date=2009-06-02%2018:52:54

Current Tallahassee NWS Forecast Discussion

Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 02 2009 07:53 PM)


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Another GOM Low? [Re: danielw]
      #85554 - Thu Jun 04 2009 12:39 PM

Well, well, well, look at the GFS. Its 6z and 12Z runs today show a storm developing in the SW Caribbean and moving across Cuba. CMC shows a developing low just off the Florida east coast. I think we could have an area of interest sometime next week.

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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: 2009 Hurricane Season Starts Today [Re: MikeC]
      #85563 - Fri Jun 05 2009 03:24 PM

Hello my friends...welcome to another season of watching. I just want to remind each of you that the information gleaned from this "free" site does, in fact, cost dollars. I've made my contribution...have you???

And while you're at it, give Mike C. a big "THANK YOU" shout.

k___g (Edith M.)


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Another GOM Low? [Re: Steve H1]
      #85564 - Fri Jun 05 2009 04:33 PM

Steve H1,

I saw the same thing on the GFS and the NGP should be interesting to see what it does, if anything. I've come to trust the ECMWF forecasts also, and it doesn't show much, so I'd say it's maybe 50/50 as of now of anything showing up.

ECMWF


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CoconutCandy
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: hogrunr]
      #85566 - Fri Jun 05 2009 06:40 PM

Oops! Don't look now, but that bubble has burst already.

Sure, the 06Z and 12Z runs *yesterday* were all over this, with a substantial storm crossing central Cuba and entering the NW'ern Bahamas.

But each successive model run had the 'storm' slowing down appreciably and making it no further than Jamaica at the end of the run.

And now the latest GFS run has dropped this scenario altogether, forecasting, at best, a weak low languishing just off the tip of Honduras on days 5-7.

As I commented recently in the "Comedy Shop" forum:

Quote:

... on the other hand, one must be mindful of the fact that the GFS is often too 'bullish' on possible TC formation, due to 'convective feedback processes' within the model, and often overdoes the occurance and strength of warm core systems, especially at days 5 and beyond.

Sometimes, my "Tea Leaf Readings" provide better forecasts at Day 7. Just Joking !!




But it's really true of the GFS, especially in the Central Pacific, that it often produces "spurious" lows at days 3-5 and beyond. Keen forecasters often take the GFS's "bullish" predictions with a grain of salt, unless there is run-to-run consistancy and other models begin to pick up on it, too.

If the GFS were "spot on" (thankfully it's not!) Hawaii would have had about 15 landfalling storms and 'canes somewhere in these islands over the past decade. But, we've only had a brush with a much-weakened Flossie 2 years ago, and nothing major since Cat 4 Iniki in '92 that flattened Kauai, mere weeks after Andrew obliterated South Dade, my old 'stomping grounds', having been a Coconut Grove resident back in the 70's. But I digress.

From looking at the latest SST charts for the Atlantic basin, I noticed that the warmest SST's (and hence the greatest 'Oceanic Heat Content') are in the area where the GFS had forecast genesis. I can only surmise that it was this 'hot spot' that the GFS was picking up on yesterday, and in typical fashion, 'overdoing' it by cooking up a cyclone from the 'presumed' convection to flare and organize there in the coming days.

I think it likely that the NW Caribbean *will* be a favored area for storm development in a week or two, but not *within* the next week, as the GFS was indicating yesterday.

But then again, stranger things have happened!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #85567 - Fri Jun 05 2009 07:50 PM

HPC mentioning something in the coming week of a tropical disturbance in the Isthmus of Panema area. Forecast to move northward slowly to near the Honduran/ Nicaraugan Coastal areas. Multi-model forecast as of this afternoon.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
233 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2009

...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE GULF/WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO
INTERACT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THIS PROCESS...IT WILL
INDUCE THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE INTO
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 30-36 HRS...WHILE FAVORING
FORMATION OF A CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE LATEST RUN
(12Z) OF THE GFS FAVORS A SLOWER EVOLUTION/DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WITH LATEST
EVOLUTION CLOSER TO WHAT THE ECMWF SHOWS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GOLFO DE LOS MOSQUITOS/
BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA BY 36-42 HRS...AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS/PUERTO LEMPIRA BY 72-84 HRS.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: danielw]
      #85571 - Sat Jun 06 2009 01:54 PM

I'm glad there isnt alot of 5 days + guesscasting going on in here compared to other sites.

Right now the disturbance off Nicaragua is a weak area of low pressure...until it gets better organized
and has model support (outside the GFS)..then nothing much really to say.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: scottsvb]
      #85572 - Sat Jun 06 2009 03:55 PM

Quote:

I'm glad there isnt alot of 5 days + guesscasting going on in here compared to other sites.

Right now the disturbance off Nicaragua is a weak area of low pressure...until it gets better organized
and has model support (outside the GFS)..then nothing much really to say.



That's a good sign that there hasn't been guess/wishcasting. The GFS being the only model showing any significant development and, as has been noted, tends to be a bit aggressive, a grain of salt is necessary at this point. Being "that time of year," it just bears watching.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: MichaelA]
      #85573 - Sat Jun 06 2009 09:04 PM

Wasn't trying to guess-cast here folks, just looking at the area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean and lower pressure in that area. Sure the GFS spits out spurious lows, but this is an area of the atlantic that can produce early tropical activity. We've already had a couple of invests, so the potential is there. They have upgraded the GFS to attempt to remove some of the convective feedback issues, which from my experience, tends to introduce different issues that have to be corrected, but is a step in the right direction. But still, I suspect that the GFS may be on to something, and we may have something to watch next week. Cheers!!

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: MichaelA]
      #85574 - Sun Jun 07 2009 12:49 AM

Personally I like salty things!

The NHC gave it a possibility and other models have been showing development south of Cuba. With the long train of moisture draped across Florida and fronts moving across the SE... would think anything that could possibly form down there would be sucked north somewhere... towards our part of the world.

Normally... I am skeptical of the SW Carib... but am less skeptical on tropical development forming at the bottom of a dangling trof..

Either way... the yellow watch box is there to catch our attention and give us a heads up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: LoisCane]
      #85575 - Sun Jun 07 2009 08:35 AM

The disturbance in the southwest Caribbean is too disorganized and conditions just aren't all that great for development. Most likely, this one isn't going to develop into anything except cause some rain.

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: MikeC]
      #85576 - Sun Jun 07 2009 09:19 AM

Interesting comment in the long-term forecast today for Tampa:

ON A SIDE NOTE THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE LONG
RANGE PERIOD WITH THIS LOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FL ON
SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z DGEX SHOW SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENTS BUT ARE MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOCATION/MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIAL LOW LEAVES
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE DAY 7 FORECAST (SATURDAY)...SO FOR NOW WILL
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND DEPICT CLIMO-LEVEL POPS (30%)
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IF THE GFS CONTINUES WITH ITS
CURRENT TRENDS AND OTHER MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH IT...THEN
RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FORECASTS.


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: MissBecky]
      #85577 - Sun Jun 07 2009 01:09 PM

Image at link. Moved due to oversize.
http://i230.photobucket.com/albums/ee260/futuremarlinsgm/tropics060809.jpg

Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 07 2009 04:40 PM)


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #85578 - Sun Jun 07 2009 07:59 PM

Just now getting on top of this thing, and there seems to be some deep convection firing up directly over a circulation center, whether or not it's low/mid/high I can't tell at this time with the fading evening satellite shots, but it appears as of the 23:15 UTC satellite image that the center of circulation is at 12.8N and 81.5W, moving just about due north.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85579 - Sun Jun 07 2009 10:41 PM

I'm not the biggest believer in this system. It has a good ways to go before it makes a believer of me.

Yellow to Orange might help... on the NHC page.

But, seriously... it's hung in there pretty well and looks great on funktop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ft-l.jpg

Am curious how something can develop on epac and in carib yet... doesn't really show it pulling together for a while... "slow development" so... watching the show unfold.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: LoisCane]
      #85580 - Sun Jun 07 2009 11:34 PM

I dunno, tonight's big blow up of convection could be just that, and gone as soon as tomorrow morning, or it could be the low pressure system firing up into a tropical system. One can't be too careful of a quickly developing tropical system, even if is still early in June.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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dvorak... [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85581 - Sun Jun 07 2009 11:50 PM

Yeah I want to believe this is a figment of my imagination too...because it was progged for "slow development" and this is crazy...tonight...

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv

and Dvorak..look at the Dvorak.. unreal, surprising

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85582 - Mon Jun 08 2009 12:01 AM

When I look at surface observations, I use the NowCOAST Web-Mapping and Satellite Server since they have accurate and constantly updated data and imagery. Thats where I got the observations that indicated an east wind on the north and a west wind on the south which would be indicative of some surface reflection occuring. Not only that, but when you look very closely at daytime visible/nighttime IR satellite loops (I use Tropical RAMSDIS for this), you can see the low-level clouds starting to get drawn northward into the disturbance. All this indicates to me at least that we're starting to see something happening at the surface.

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scottsvb
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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #85583 - Mon Jun 08 2009 12:13 AM

If this had model support within 24hrs of a closed low..I would accept that..but no model shows really anything for 4 days still....but just looking @ the Sat you can see its being enhanced by the upper trough.

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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 157
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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: scottsvb]
      #85584 - Mon Jun 08 2009 01:40 AM

There is rotation within the central core of convection, you can see it on the Water Vapor loops.

I'm almost willing to bet money that if the convection persists in it's current form, that we'll have TD#2 by monday evening. All the same, I'd rather not have to deal with a tropical system one week before leaving on a month long vacation.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85585 - Mon Jun 08 2009 07:26 AM

If the shear in the area was not so high we could see something develop, however it's not. It appears the western Caribbean system is going to diminish with all the shear after a little flare up. Still pretty sure that nothing will develop from this. Next week may be more interesting.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: MikeC]
      #85586 - Mon Jun 08 2009 10:45 AM

The models have not been developing this "system" in the last couple of runs. It looks like most of the shear is now N of the major convection flare up. It certainly is bubbling and boiling, but only time will tell if anything comes of this or if it simply collapses.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Adam S
Unregistered




Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: MichaelA]
      #85587 - Mon Jun 08 2009 01:12 PM

What are the chances this low develops into a depression and hits south Florida? Last night and this morning this low had a convection.

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hogrunr
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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85588 - Mon Jun 08 2009 02:36 PM

well I think there are really two *separate* percentages in your question.

1. What are the chances that this turns into a TC of some kind? Right now, the NHC puts the percentage at 30%, I think considering the affects of the shear as well as how much convection is present, that is a fair percentage.

2. Will this hit south Florida? This is anybody's guess, but because of it's position at the base of a trough system, it will be going north somewhere. How far East or West just depends on timing.


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Buttman
Unregistered




Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: hogrunr]
      #85589 - Mon Jun 08 2009 04:13 PM

Circumstances exactly similiar to this created Alberto on June 9 2006. Dont forget that.

But ya it looks like crap for TC potential ATM.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85590 - Mon Jun 08 2009 07:01 PM

Alberto in 2006 was a little more organized at this state. It didn't have quite as much shear to deal with. It became a depression in 2006, and looking back it was in much better shape at the point this system is at now. Alberto also got tagged as an invest early too, and had a low level circulation associated with it. (see model animation of Alberto)

It did almost make hurricane strength before making landfall along the Big Bend, but didn't quite get there (See the plot history for it--click the forecaster name to see the discussions along the way).

This year the situation is a bit different in the upper air, so I doubt the disturbance will do anything, at least for several days, if at all. Shear is winning out.



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buttman
Unregistered




Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: MikeC]
      #85591 - Mon Jun 08 2009 07:53 PM

Mike as a rabid FLH fan you hit the nail on the head. Historically I needed to get that out there. Alberto was better developed at this point. Probably poofs tommorrow. we will see. Shame, I wouldnt mine a quiet 2006 repeat


And you guys need to change your spam filter thingy already. 90% of the words are unreadable!


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canewars
Unregistered




Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85593 - Mon Jun 08 2009 11:26 PM

ive been an observer on this site for awhile but am having a tough time interpreting the post right above mine.. is that a joke? typically the posts are mostly intelligent and comprehendable.. and usually pertain to weather and not mumbo jumbo giberish.

The 'above' post referred to here has been deleted~danielw

Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 08 2009 11:44 PM)


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85595 - Tue Jun 09 2009 08:23 AM

Quote:



The 'above' post referred to here has been deleted~danielw





Thank you for simply deleting posts instead of archiving them in the graveyard.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85597 - Tue Jun 09 2009 02:30 PM

Meanwhile, back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Looks less likely that anything is going to develop in the SW Caribbean this week. Looks like the shear is winning for now. There is still some disorganized convection, but much less than previously.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Adam S
Unregistered




Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: MichaelA]
      #85599 - Tue Jun 09 2009 03:40 PM

What are the chances that this develops and if it does what is the time frame?

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85601 - Tue Jun 09 2009 03:54 PM

Right now, the chances are near zero for any further development due to the vertical shear. I don't expect to see anything from this area for now.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Adam S
Unregistered




Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: MichaelA]
      #85603 - Wed Jun 10 2009 02:41 PM

It looks like the area is getting better organized this afternoon. Does anyone think this low may develop yet?

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
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Re: 'Spurious' NW Caribbean Low ?? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85604 - Wed Jun 10 2009 04:14 PM

Adam:
See the preceeding posts regarding "shear". the shear can be seen on the visible satellite Carribean Images by the streaks of clouds from the SW to the NE.
There is generally too much shear throughout the tropics for any development over the immediate future.

--------------------
doug


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Complex Crap off of Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #85619 - Thu Jun 18 2009 07:25 AM

So there is a 1012 low off the coast of Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Positioned between two Highs.
Here is the closest Bouy:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

Any chance we can get some substantial rain from this?

Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 19 2009 03:57 AM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
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Re: Complex off of Florida [Re: Beach]
      #85621 - Thu Jun 18 2009 12:07 PM

None, nada, zip. We're on the SW side and all it will do is funnel the dry air down over the state. Afternoon T-storms will prevail over the interior moving toward the Gulf coast later today. Until that high over the Gulf either dissolves or moves to the East, it will continue to be hot and mostly dry.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
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Re: Complex off of Florida [Re: MichaelA]
      #85623 - Thu Jun 18 2009 01:34 PM

Various model take storms of the EC and then have them make a loop back towards the coast.. Most likely not tropical, but the NOGAPS one is interesting as it takes the system into an area where there is some Gulf Stream support
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cg...;hour=Animation

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Do you think they will name it? [Re: MikeC]
      #85639 - Mon Jun 22 2009 04:55 PM

Of coarse I'm speaking of the Low closing in on the Mexican Coast in the Western BOC.
NHC has listed it as a INVEST:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
Here is the closet Bouy Link:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055


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