MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Update - Tuesday, Sept. 15, 6 PM
Fred's remnants are showing signs of life again in the central Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear has slackened somewhat and convection is consistently re-firing and progressively becoming better organized near the center. The has reinstated track and model guidance on Fred and an upgrade from the current "low" chance of development is likely later this evening. Whether the system redevelops soon or not, it should continue to head generally west to west-northwestward over the course of the coming days.
Elsewhere, two other areas are being watched: a non-tropical area of low pressure on the tail end of a cold front northeast of the Bahamas and a tropical wave located just west of the Cape Verde Islands. Both have been given low chances of development by the and, unlike Fred's remnants, no upgrade of those probabilities seem to be imminent.
-Clark
Update - Saturday Sept 12, 7PM
Fred has been downgraded to a stationary remnant low near 18N 34W at 12/21Z with winds of 30 knots - no convection so no Depression - a victim of strong south southwesterly windshear. Eventually whatever is left of Fred should move to the west northwest as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds. Another active wave south of the Cape Verde Islands is slowly organizing.
An upper level trough and a weak stationary front have combined to generate large areas of convection along the northern Gulf coast. Although rain is likely, tropical development chances are rather slim, however development is likely off the north Florida east coast.
ED
Original Post
Hurricane Fred is holding on, after becoming a major hurricane in the far east Atlantic earlier in the week. It was the furthest east recorded that a major formed. It is expected to encounter the shear that has been a hallmark of this year's season in a few days which should basically take it apart. The remnants will likely drift west, and interestingly most models keep it going due west, very weak, however. Ex-Fred, at that time, may have to be watched.
The area in the western Gulf is not likely to develop, but if it does it would likely be a hybrid storm. It will cause much rain for the area. The system in the northeast will cause a lot of rain and general ugliness along the coast there, but it too is likely not to develop because of the hostile conditions.
Fred Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2009&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fred
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Fred
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fred
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fred (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Fred
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fred
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fred -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Edited by Clark (Tue Sep 15 2009 05:42 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I like the split screen images.
Fred definitely seems to want to go west for a while..down the road at some point. Watching storms like this teach patience and are more a lesson in how things work than a test of ability to see what city some big storm is about to hit. Message boards seem overly quiet as Fred is far away and the other two systems are not named.
Oddly, both systems highlighted on the front page here have caused a lot of beach erosion and flooding. Both systems are hugging the coast and have been slow movers.
More so...the steering currents in general seem to have gotten stuck in gear and are not going anywhere fast.
Makes me wonder what will happen when we hit "Indian Summer" and if there will be a door for Fred or more so Grace to affect land without being brushed aside by a trough and taken out to sea.
Still not sure if Fred can get that far west... or what, sometimes the harder seasons where things don't spin up fast and take predictable paths are ...harder to predict or understand until after they are over in post game analysis.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Fred is looing like the "Remnant Low that Could." Maybe he'll be our first Christmas cane.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Split screen and split models. I hope that Fred doesn't become Frederic,Jr.
30 years ago this week Major Hurricane Frederic made landfall on the MS/ AL Border. Hmmm
Western GOM still has a Bear Watch for the weekend. Lots of heavy, heavy , heavy rainfall. Parched ground in Texas ( Tejas ) will lead to the possibility of rapid runoff. Welcome relief from the prolonged dry spell, but the flooding is never welcome in Texas.
Remember... Turn around or drown. 
Stay Dry.
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Fairhopian
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 26
Loc:
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Frederic was a defining moment for anyone living in Mobile (or South Mississippi). I was 9 at the time, but have as many vivid memories from the two-week period of Frederic and his aftermath, as I do from the entire 9 years preceding. Frederic was a dry storm, but for what he lacked in rain, he made up with wind. No tree stood a chance against that storm, and few houses weathered that storm without major damage. So, if Fred "lives" through the next few days, he still has a lot to live up to, if he is indeed the long lost son of whom Daniel ponders. Fred probably won't get my attention (or respect) unless and until he crosses the western tip of Cuba.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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That Texas feature would be exciting if the center of the rotation were over water and not west of Corpus Christi. I read earlier in the week that baroclinic features would likely be the major influence in development and direction. So not likely to be tropical.
The atmosphere in the GOM and W. Carribean is looking more juicy than in the past few weeks
Still plenty of hot water around.
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doug
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
SURFACES PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR . THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
We will just have to wait and see what happens with this. One of those shot-in-the-dark systems that could have a chance or might not.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Fred is not dead... yet. Still trying to increase convection despite the wind shear in the area.
Other area is a tropical wave moving thru the Lesser Antilles at this time. Moderate amount of storm centered convection.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Fred is still trying and the shear looks to be decreasing. Also, the wave just west of CV is ramping up, but should stay out to sea if it develops. Still a lot of shear around the wave near the windward islands, so I don't expect anything forming from that. It's almost the time of year to begin watching the GOM and Caribbean for later season development.
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Michael
WU PWS
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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As I said a few days ago, don't write Fred off just yet and though shear along 20N latitude is moderate it is much lighter than it has been and there is a rather large area of sub 20 knot shear ahead and warm water. I haven't looked at the upper models as of 1930Z today, so I'm not prepared to guess what lies ahead. Fred's LLC is still intact and looks pretty good on visible satellite.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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and as if right on cue...big blowup of convection near the center of what was (and might be again) Fred
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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16/0530Z - Looking at satellite imagery and wind shear analysis, I think Fred is beginning to inch closer towards regaining depression status. There were some cold tops earlier this evening, but since have warmed and it is difficult to locate LLC on IR satellite. hallow models continue general west-northwest track and wind shear analysis is generally 10 to 15 knots ahead of its course. There are a couple of wrinkles...upper low south of Hispanola and frontal system to Fred's northwest. Think Fred's dead?
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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