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MikeCAdministrator
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2010 Season Arriving Soon, Noaa's Numbers Out
      #87429 - Sat May 15 2010 10:50 AM

May 31 12:30 PM EDT Update
The remnants of the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Agatha have crossed Central America and have moved into the western Caribbean, it has a small chance to develop over the next day or two and is worth watching as the start of hurricane season approaches tomorrow.

May 28 6:30 AM EDT Update
The invest system, 90L did not get any more organized, and the small chance of something forming before this season is gone.

However, the season does indeed start this coming Tuesday, and although it looks like June may start slow, the latter half may begin to see some activity. The usual gradual build up to mid August will likely occur this year as well, with a higher chance for July activity than normal, but about the same as average for June.

NOAA's Climate Prediction numbers are out:

Note these area a statistical approach, and not really a forecast. with about a 70% chance of verifying.

14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
With an Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) range of 155%-270% of the median.



If you would like to make your own guess/prediction on numbers for the season, you can do so over here -- This will close on June 1st.

Meanwhile in the east pacific, the first depression may be trying to form from the invest area 90E over there and could become a depression later today.

May 24 6:30 AM EDT Update
A special, pre-season tropical weather outlook has been issued mentioning the system has a 30% chance of tropical or sub-tropical development. Still likely to not have much real impact other than higher surf.

With a little more time to examine 90L it is worth noting that actual and forecast southwesterly windshear is again on the increase. At least three separate low-level swirls are visible this morning - all quite weak as convection remains displaced to the northeast. Although the gradient winds are brisk well to the northeast of the mean center (35 knots), 90L remains poorly organized.

This week is Hurricane Preparedness Week.

May 21 Noon Update
The system in the Bahamas has been designated invest 90L, the first of 2010 in the Atlantic. It's still not likely to become tropical, but worth watching since it may approach the eastern United States.

It may hover in the general same position and eventually drift northwest toward the outer banks in North Carolina early next week, possibly as a subtropical system. Those in the Carolinas will want to keep watch, mostly just for a rainy/nasty day.

An invest is a weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA (Joint Typhoon Warning Center / Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) should be consulted for this purpose.



Accuweather video Update (90L)

May 21 6AM Update

On the two system: The southwest Caribbean system is going to have a lot of shear to deal with that is going to likely keep this one a rainmaker.

The system near the Bahamas is becoming a cut-off surface low and still has a chance to become a hybrid or subtropical system, generally moving slowly westward and possibly approaching the US is 5 days or so. (Near GA/SC). If it does it will be rough surf, somewhat windy, and plenty of rain--yet not tropical.



For more information I'd recommend looking at the Area Forecast Discussions (At the top of the main page) and various links below and our links page.

May 19th 11AM Update
An area in the southwest Caribbean sea is worth watching for possible early development as well as an area north of the Bahamas which could develop into a cutoff low or subtropical/hybrid system, bringing much rain.

The area nearer to the US is likely to stay offshore and may near Bermuda late next week. Most of it likely will be heavy rain along with some winds and rough surf for the southeast, and non tropical.

The area in the Southwestern Caribbean likely will bring at least heavy rainfall to Hispaniola, and has a small chance of becoming a tropical entity. If anything has a chance at least becoming an investigation area, this is it.

Both areas, although unlikely, are possible candidates for development and will be watched, but these suggestions are currently based on models alone, so likelihood of anything amounting to something is very low.

System near Bahamas chances of tropical development over the next week:
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*--------------------]



System in Southwest Caribbean development chances over the next week
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--*-------------------]



Original Update
Today, May 15th is the first day of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, but the Atlantic does not start until June 1st.
The names for the Pacific this year are Agatha, Blas, Celia, Darby, Estelle, Frank, Georgette, Howard, Isis, Javier, Kay, Lester, Madeline, Newton, Orlene, Paine, Roslyn, Seymour, Tina, Virgil, Winifred, Xavier, Yolanda, Zeke. Flhurricane's focus is usually only on the Atlantic basin. "Coconut Candy" will post some things regarding the East Pacific and Hawaii, however.

Right now there is no activity anywhere in any basin. Conditions this year may keep the East Pacific less active this year, the Atlantic is likely to be more active this year than prior years, but it looks like the Atlantic won't be active until July.

For the Atlantic, the names this year will be Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter
We are in neutral ENSO conditions now, and later this year we can watch earlier for activity,as the neutral may transform into La Nina conditions may form more quickly (and possibility stronger) than previously expected. Unlike last year, there is more of a possibility for June/Early July systems than there was last year. Luckily, they usually are fairly weak. In short, last year we were quite negative for development, this year there aren't nearly as many reasons to be in general.

The outlook for 2010 remains that it is very likely to be an active year, but we cannot predict exactly where storms will wind up. If it is to be an active year, hopefully most activity will stay offshore.

There are no signs of any Atlantic development occurring in May.

Be thinking of getting your hurricane season supplies ready over the next few weeks into June.



Other:
South Florida Information on Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Spill discussion


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: MikeC]
      #87436 - Tue May 18 2010 09:36 AM

Just wanted to briefly mention an area in the Southwest Caribbean, is has a (very) small chance of development sometime next week. If it were to it would mostly impact Hispaniola/Jamaica and head out to sea. Most likely nothing will occur since there is more to keep it from developing than not, too early in the year even with the conditions around it.

Still something to watch over time. I've added Puerto Rico to the default popups, watching their local discussions over the next few days on this potential area.



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Tony Cristaldi
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: MikeC]
      #87437 - Wed May 19 2010 09:55 AM

Quote:

Just wanted to briefly mention an area in the Southwest Caribbean, is has a (very) small chance of development sometime next week. If it were to it would mostly impact Hispaniola/Jamaica and head out to sea. Most likely nothing will occur since there is more to keep it from developing than not, too early in the year even with the conditions around it.

Still something to watch over time. I've added Puerto Rico to the default popups, watching their local discussions over the next few days on this potential area.







Mike,

Also of note is the baroclinic (non-tropical) low that the GFS and ECM are developing north of the GA/east of the Bahamas. A short wave is forecast to drop southward over the western Atlantic late this weekend. The latest op-GFS run shows the short wave retrograding SSW around the back side of the pre-existing western Atlantic trough, driving a back door cool front into FL, with the surface low east of the Bahamas taking off to the NE and out to sea.

The 00Z op-ECM is much, much different. It shows the second short capturing the first, creating a large cutoff near 32N 75W, which, in turn, captures the surface low, then retrogrades the stacked low westward into Florida. where it sits for at least 72 hours. With a solution such as this, even though SST's are in the mid-upper 70s, it wouldn't be entirely out of the question for such a low to take on some quasi-tropical, or hybrid/non-frontal characteristics, given cool temps aloft due to the cutoff at 500 MB.

Regardless of it's state, a low such as this would be a potential heavy rainfall maker for some part of northeast or east central FL. Think back to last year's late May cutoff low - different synoptic setup, but any May cutoff near/over FL invariably translates to heavy rain for someone.

FWIW...The ECM ensembles seem to favor more of a op-GFS solution.


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hogrunr
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #87438 - Wed May 19 2010 10:07 AM

Great catch Tony...I saw that feature on the GFS yesterday, but didn't think much of it. Then this morning I just noticed that the CMC and ECMWF have added that development as well. You beat me to it, and you definitely put it in much more meteorlogical terms than I would have!!

Between that and the small area in the SW Caribbean, it gives us some thinks to keep an eye on for the short term.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: hogrunr]
      #87444 - Fri May 21 2010 06:30 AM

On the two system: The southwest Caribbean system is going to have a lot of shear to deal with that is going to likely keep this one a rainmaker.
The system near the Bahamas is becoming a surface low and still has a chance to become a hybrid or subtropical system, generally moving slowly westward and possibly approaching the US is 5 days or so. (Near GA/SC). If it does it will be rough surf, somewhat windy, and plenty of rain--yet not tropical.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: MikeC]
      #87445 - Fri May 21 2010 07:54 AM

During a brief few hours yesterday morning there appeared to be some anticyclonic flow over the Florida Straits. NW Quad of an upper High based on the pattern.

I noticed the NWS Offices in New Orleans and Jackson, MS were both mentioning the probability of a retrograding Low over the SE Coast. So the forecast is getting some attention.

Just as long as any system doesn't worsen the Macondo Oil Spill mess in the GOM. They have a Big Problem without any further complications.


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Tony Cristaldi
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: danielw]
      #87446 - Fri May 21 2010 08:41 AM

Looks like the Bahamas system has been tagged as "Invest 90L", the first of 2010.

FWIW...the GFS and ECM appear to be in much better agreement, with both models now showing the trough over the upper midwestern U.S. turning southward this weekend, becoming cutoff at the mid/upper levels as it merges with the Bahamas system by Monday. The resultant stacked low then drifts NW toward the NC outer banks early next week, possibly taking on a shallow warm core (i.e. potentially becoming a hybrid/subtropical low).


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GlenJohnson
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #87448 - Fri May 21 2010 05:26 PM

I just went back and did some research. Looks like the first invest we had in 2005 was 6/9/05, which was 91L. Think this means anything since our first invest is a couple of weeks early? Dr Grey ended up upgrading his numbers to 20/10/6 before the season was done back in 2005.

--------------------



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cieldumort
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #87449 - Fri May 21 2010 05:35 PM

Invests actually start (and start back over) at "90," so the first Invest in any basin of any year would be "90." Generally speaking, having a feature of interest tagged as in Invest can and does happen at almost any time of the year, so in and of itself an "early" Invest is not worth reading too much into - it may be noteworthy if we do get a pre-season named storm out of it later this month, however.

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scottsvb
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: cieldumort]
      #87450 - Sat May 22 2010 01:33 AM

I dont trust any models in May-June.. they are usually all over the place and form things that just dont quite make it. GFS is always gun-ho like the CMC model does all year in the carribean.. Maybe the Euro might have the best idea if anything, but still will change every 12 hrs.

For the carribean, its just a wait and see. Dont get too excited if you see the GFS,GFDL or CMC or TBH any model forecast a tropical system, cause anything more than 2 days out.. forget it!!

The system off the bahamas and the carolinas has a better chance only cause its not going to be tropical
when it gets going. But will it become subtropical or tropical in 5 days or more? Well 5 days is too far out, we
do know it will be a rain maker and gusty winds 40-50mph to the N of the center. And where will it make landfall
if any? Well its too early to say that also. This may just meander around 30dg N over the next 3-5days. Too far
out to tell if this heads SW towards Florida or E with the westerlys as the subtropical Jet heads further north to 25-30N.

All in All... just wait and see, by Monday-Tuesday we will see whats happening, but for now models change.


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MichaelA
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: scottsvb]
      #87451 - Sun May 23 2010 07:02 AM

Fairly good blowup of convection this morning near 26.5N - 68.5W with no apparent closed LLC. The models do seem to want to deepen it and run it to just off the Outer Banks and then ENE over the run period. The West coast of FL could use some rain, however, but this doesn't seem that it will have any impact on FL in the near term.

--------------------
Michael

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weatherguy08
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: MichaelA]
      #87452 - Sun May 23 2010 12:54 PM

I'm a bit surprised to see 90L doing so well given the fairly strong wind shear and dry air around it. After doing a hand analysis this morning, there is definitely a broad surface circulation and visible imagery seems to suggest some sort of low-level circulation. This could be something to watch for people on the southeast coast of the United States.

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MichaelA
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon [Re: weatherguy08]
      #87453 - Sun May 23 2010 04:06 PM

Tight little LLC drifting SSW near 25.1N - 69.9W this afternoon on the vis sat loop well removed from the convection. Nothing is going to happen unless the shear relaxes.

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danielwAdministrator
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90L [Re: MichaelA]
      #87454 - Sun May 23 2010 05:49 PM

Nice swirl seen on the sats this aternoon. Notice the cloud streets over the Bahamas on the outer edges of the system. Plenty of spin in progress. Just doesn't appear to be consolidating or very complex, at this time.



Edited by danielw (Sun May 23 2010 05:56 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: 90L [Re: danielw]
      #87455 - Mon May 24 2010 12:09 AM

At 24/0025Z, NHC issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook on Invest 90L and stated a moderate chance (30 percent) that the system could develop into a subtropical or tropical system by Tuesday evening. The system is expected to move slowly to the north northwest and over the past 24 hours the center of the weak low-level circulation has drifted anywhere from the west southwest to the north. Moderate southerly wind shear has prevented convection from developing over the center, however this shear is expected to be on the decline by Tuesday morning. A blocking ridge to the north should limit any significant northward movement for a few days.
ED


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GlenJohnson
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Re: 90L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87456 - Mon May 24 2010 08:53 AM

Anybody have any idea how many times the National Hurricane Center has made there web site, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ , active more than a week before hurricae season has started? It's active today because of 90L, and when I've checked it in the past it's always had in big bold letters, "This site will start June 1st" or something along those lines. Interesting.

--------------------



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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: 90L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87457 - Mon May 24 2010 09:25 AM

With a little more time to examine 90L it is worth noting that actual and forecast southwesterly windshear is again on the increase. At least three separate low-level swirls are visible this morning - all quite weak as convection remains displaced to the northeast. Although the gradient winds are brisk well to the northeast of the mean center (35 knots), 90L remains poorly organized.
ED


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Ed in Va
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Re: 90L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87458 - Mon May 24 2010 11:10 AM

Suprise, surprise, surprise! Joe Bastardi is predicting a busier than normal season. He also indicates the greatest threat from the OBX to TX...I guess we'll have to wait for the doomsday storm to hit NYC
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/31764/bastardi-predicts-a-hot-summer-1.asp

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Storm Hunter
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Re: 90L [Re: Ed in Va]
      #87465 - Wed May 26 2010 05:24 PM

Think 90L will work a loop to the east and then move south and then back to the west towards central Florida... Expect some windy conditions on the east coast of Florida... I just don't see this going Warm Core tho... or Tropical in the near future. Early start to the season?? I think 2010 is underway....

My real interest in 90E and will its make it over to the western Carb. late this weekend and shoot up over Cuba and out to the atlantic? I think this has a better chance of something happening with this area, before June 1st.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed May 26 2010 05:38 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon, Special Tropical Weather Outlook Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #87468 - Thu May 27 2010 10:12 AM

Invest 90L is starting to get its act together a little bit today, and I would now probably give it about a 20-30% chance of becoming a numbered system within the next 48 hours. Shear is moderate, as the non-tropical low is rather stacked, and what shear there is has been helping to fan the convection near and mostly just to the east of the mean center. If this process continues, it could help to moisten up the entire column over a wider area, allowing for additional convection to take hold over the next while, and giving 90L a better shot at developing something resembling a more traditional warm core.

Movement is likely to keep the system offshore at least for the near-term, assuming it just doesn't get squeezed into oblivion and/or shot out to sea.

Bermuda and boaters may also want to be watching much more closely, now. Even if 90L melds with the approaching frontal system from its north and loses what little chance it has had of transitioning into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm, odds look to favor at the least a brief increase in organization, along with some blustery gales and squalls.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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