Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | (show all)
mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? [Re: berrywr]
      #87970 - Tue Jun 29 2010 04:58 PM

Ya, it looks like according this this sat. imagery that Alex may of just wrapped up on the western side of the Core.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html
Look at the last frame

Edited by mwillis (Tue Jun 29 2010 04:59 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? [Re: berrywr]
      #87971 - Tue Jun 29 2010 05:09 PM

Looks like Alex is behaving as predicted, and the majority of the movement is west, with a slde to the north. The speed is faster than originally predicted, and strengthening into a Cat II looks less likely. Probably minimal Cat I at land fall which looks likely on Wednesday

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? [Re: doug]
      #87974 - Tue Jun 29 2010 05:26 PM

Last night I thought we'd have hurricane Alex in the morning, but we didn't get it. We still don't have it. The NHC is right on top of it, and has gotten the intensity right since Alex exited the Yucatan.

It seems to me though that Alex is tracking urther south than they had predicted, and is picking up speed and racing WNW at a nice clip.

It's looking better, but it still seems to have a lot of dry air mixed in with the individual spiral bands.

I suspect Alex will reach cane status tonite as predicted.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? [Re: stormtiger]
      #87976 - Tue Jun 29 2010 07:52 PM

Been observing more on the steering layers for the storm. It seems like the stronger Alex gets, the more north he can pull. Just for an example, look at this map Steering Layers for 940 MLB. or lower . If Alex was a category 4 or 5 with pressure of 940 MLB. it would steer to just about south of Galveston. The map shows a much weaker ridge. However, the weaker Alex is, the more west it goes Steering Layers for 990-970 MLB. . NHC has Alex becoming a category 1 storm at landfall, which is reasonable because of the dry air that has been inhibiting it. However, I'm looking at a category 2 Hurricane at landfall, same thing happened with Dolly in 2008. Landfall either at or south of the Mexican border, which was my first forecast but after the models went north, and as the trough looked stronger, I veered it north, but I'm starting to see a WNW movement with Alex, of course recon will have the best information. My best guess is that Alex is a Category 1 storm with 75-80 mph by 11 p.m. since recon won't be at the center till after the 8 p.m. advisory which has no change in strength. If this doesn't belong here please let me know, it's been a long time since I used this site, grown more in my knowledge of weather over the years.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? [Re: allan]
      #87977 - Tue Jun 29 2010 08:47 PM

Recon is finding an astounding pressure of 973 MLB. (pressure of a category 2-3 storm). I would watch Alex closely tonight for the winds to slowly drive up. I also got this from the Running Best TRack
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU , 64, NEQ

It appears we have our first Hurricane of the season!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? [Re: allan]
      #87978 - Tue Jun 29 2010 09:20 PM

I've been searching the recon and have seen no winds at the surface above 65kts...which seems very wrong with a pressure that low

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87979 - Tue Jun 29 2010 09:58 PM

Alex appears to be slowing down again, and attempting another run at getting over the hurricane hump. Those in the Warning area in Texas shouldn't let their guard down.

Note: It WILL be upgraded at 11.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? [Re: MikeC]
      #87980 - Tue Jun 29 2010 10:04 PM

Alex is the first June Atlantic Hurricane since 1995 (Allison), which was also the first hurricane to ever be tracked on flhurricane.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? [Re: MikeC]
      #87981 - Tue Jun 29 2010 10:21 PM

With a pressure that low...I dont see how they couldn't upgrade it. I've seen Cat2's with higher pressure

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 41254

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center