MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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03L is the upgraded 97L on the Navy site. They just haven't dumped the 97L references.
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Michael
PWS
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Tropical Storm warning is up for the Keys and South FL. Still looks like alot of shear and dry air ahead which might explain why the keeps it at only TS storm level even into the Gulf. Really complex interaction going on with the ULL ahead of it, hard to get a read on the true center since they are multiple spins going on. Looks to be a soggy weekend for us in S FL since (as of now) all the moisture is to the north of the center and models indicate the center will stay south of us (down in the Keys).
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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i am still not buying the tropical forecast points yet. i still believe it might take more of a turn to the north. i still dont see a solid west movement.
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rgd
Weather Hobbyist
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Basis? and this thing is not going to be anything more then what it is or maybe a small TS but i see what the is saying about movement and they do so sorry but i just do not see this wanted north movement you have going.
Edited by rgd (Thu Jul 22 2010 04:53 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It's a very poorly defined center, but it does appear that it is moving toward the WNW. The earlier convection that formed near the center has now been sheared off to the North and there is quite a bit of dry air being advected from the West and SW. None of that is conducive to rapid development.
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Michael
PWS
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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I agree. While most of the convection appears to be to the North and Northeast of the COC, in some of the latest loops there appears to be slightly more overall movement in a Northerly direction. We shall see!
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BayCoGator
Weather Watcher
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Loc: NW Florida
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Quote:
i am still not buying the tropical forecast points yet. i still believe it might take more of a turn to the north. i still dont see a solid west movement.
It will be interesting to watch the track of the ULL and the influence it has on the track of TD3. Although I'm sure the forecast models are taking that into consideration, you may very well be right.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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i think the 5pm advisory might shift the forecast paths to the north if it continues like it is.
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WPBSUE
Registered User
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Have to agree that the models will shift northward a bit. Sure looks like this storm is starting to get its act together. 5pm will be interesting.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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2pm advisory hit. there's a .4 degree shift to the north. and a .1 degree shift to the west. starting to believe that northerly shift by 5pm.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Well the 2:05 advisory confirmed what I had suspected that the center is more north and east of the first official fix. There is a convection ball NW and convection east, and SE of the center. No convection on the west or SW. Convection to the south is some distance from the center.
I do not think a clear track on this will emerge until the system completes its organization.
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doug
Edited by doug (Thu Jul 22 2010 06:01 PM)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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i agree, the SW portion of this storm is very bald. but question is, just how organized will it get? its running out of room.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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At 2PM the center of TD#3 was relocated a bit northeast of the 11AM position, which will likely change the forecast track some later today. (They don't update forcasted track positions in the intermediate advisories)
This means the center may approach the middle Keys or South Florida rather than Key West. Nearly all of the convection is on the north side, so any areas north of the system will likely see rainfall (and possibly gusty weather and a small chance for tornadoes)
Recon is in the area now, so we may have some data soon from it.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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AF Recon 306 is in area now and showing signs of TS force winds at the surface... 35-39 MPH. They just arrived in the last 30 mins and should begin Invest pattern to close of low and will know within about hr of the systems status
AF 302 is also in area but flying higher up at 25kf.. appears a mid level invest around system. As of the last dropsonde at 17:25Z, the plane's... Location: 160 miles (257 km) to the SE (128°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 22 2010 06:17 PM)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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I think the 18Z model run will shift to the east some, but not to the extent as some may expect. Looking at the steering layers, it appears it should start turning more westerly by this evening. I still think a landfall around the Texas/Louisiana border or somewhere in the state of Louisiana appears the most likely scenario. Also, Tropical Depression 3 is in its organization mode, so it will have wobbles to the north (or south) occasionally. I have a feeling the will shift the track toward the Central Louisiana coastline at the 4:00p.m. update; but, we'll see what the models show. 
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Update... haha.. AF 306 is at about 500ft above the surface down there in SE Bahama's looks like they passed a center at Time:18:09:30Z Coordinates: 21.9667N 74.9833W... so that could be the coc area.
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 18:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Thursday, 18:06Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 22.1N 75.1W
Location: 151 miles (243 km) to the NNE (18°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 180 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 330° at 13 knots (From the NNW at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 15°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1008 mb (extrapolated)
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
so it seems that we may have a weak TS with winds of 40mph and a pressure of 1008mb? Need more data to confirm tho...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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Loc:
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The 18Z models that have been issued point toward the Central Louisiana coast as the landfall region. Just as I figured, the ridge will likely hold Tropical Depression 3 around or to the west of the Mississippi River; however, with the RECON flights collecting data, the 00Z runs will likely be more accurate.
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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 Looking at the latest floater loop it appears to me that this system is moving more northerly...is this just an optical illusion or is the ULL changing the system's course???
Edited by k___g (Thu Jul 22 2010 07:28 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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The 2pm adv. said that there was little motion. Also the ULL is moving sw at a pretty good clip. I also noticed that the orientation of the ULL's axis has tilted more left/right than up/down like it was earlier which will soon bring the flow in from the SE. I dont know if this will impact anything though. I am also noticing in the last couple of loops that there is more banding on the north side as opposed to the blown off look of earlier
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recon is finding the center a little north of where the 2PM advisory stated. The storm forming like this is causing relocation around that area right now. The good news is that no solid tropical storm force winds have been found so far.
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