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Recon has departed Keesler to check out #93L in the SW Gulf. #92L is now just inland along SE GA coast. June systems can dump lots of rain.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


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Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89097 - Thu Aug 26 2010 10:19 PM

Quote:

The answer to your question is 'yes'. Whatever you are looking at must be related to the previous version of Invest 97L back around the 20th of July that has not been updated yet.
ED




Thank you for Clarification. I am watching these three and am curious to see what they are doing, as it does look similar to the tracks three weeks back as someone else has already pointed out.

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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


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Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game [Re: MikeC]
      #89099 - Fri Aug 27 2010 02:24 AM

Looks like a special statement is out from NHC stating that Danielle is now a major hurricane w/ winds of 120mph. Est pressure is 955mb (funny how Alex bottomed out at 942 but was barely a cat2)

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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Beach
Weather Guru


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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89100 - Fri Aug 27 2010 07:22 AM

Looking this mornings loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

I know storms wobble as they go along. Currently it looks like Danielle might pass 60W staying under 27N. I guess we'll know by 11:00am.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game [Re: Beach]
      #89102 - Fri Aug 27 2010 07:39 AM

it's a long wobble, barely north of due west

but would take more than a 3 hour wobble to say anything big is going on

storm is now a category 4 and that has a tendency to sometimes change things in the short term

thanks tho... was watching earl so much had not looked close up at Danielle

..................one thing that has always part bugged me and amazed me about her is she always seems upside down... seems to work for her but she always looks like she is looking out the rear view mirror, big long huge tail on the top side of her rather than the bottom side

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game [Re: LoisCane]
      #89104 - Fri Aug 27 2010 11:02 AM

The last couple of frames there has been a jog to the right and if this jog doesn't continue it will be west and left of track since the next positions are due north.

Earl is right on track however not as strong as Danielle which Earl at this point is tracing. Credit Ed with both and I agree...SAL and upwelling. That said, it's future track continues to be south of Danielle and the water is plenty warm along it.

The future of "Fiona" is interesting and the models don't have a good handle on this evolving system which as we know isn't a depression.

An impressive wave lies in the wings and it appears the parade is now in full motion.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Recurve is the Name of the Game [Re: berrywr]
      #89109 - Fri Aug 27 2010 01:58 PM

Danielle ( no relation ) is just above the pressure wind relationship curve.

1000mb - 946mb = 54 + 75 mph = max possible windspeed with respect to pressure of 129 mph.

Not an impossibility as Katrina and Rita were both above the pressure wind relationship curve.

Danielle has a rather large storm envelope and satellite signature. As noted above, her main outflow channel is poleward which is slightly unusual. Poleward outflow channel is probably a better feeder right now as Earl's close proximity is preventing a equatorial outflow channel from staying intact.
Early Danielle also had a more pronounced poleward outflow channel while in close proximity to the ITCZ.
Strange, if not weird storm. Ed and Bill should be able to give a better reasoning of the poleward channel.

RECON is scheduled to fly Danielle this afternoon so we might be able to get a better grasp on what is making her tick.


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Danielle RECON Vortex Message [Re: danielw]
      #89111 - Fri Aug 27 2010 02:19 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 18:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2010
Storm Name: Danielle (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 17:35:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°59'N 60°05'W (26.9833N 60.0833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 464 miles (747 km) to the SE (142°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,615m (8,579ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NW (325°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 58° at 107kts (From the ENE at ~ 123.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 942mb (27.82 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 119kts (~ 136.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:52:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 109kts (~ 125.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:44:10Z

data courtesy of http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ ~danielw

Note:This vortex brings Danielle back into the norms with respect to pressure and wind relationship.
1000 - 942mb = 58 + 75 = 133 mph
We will have to see what NHC uses as the surface wind speed. Possibly 123 mph.


Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 27 2010 02:29 PM)


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