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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 337 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
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Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While [Re: scottsvb]
      #90360 - Mon Jun 06 2011 03:12 PM

The "cleanser" will be that ULL in the SW GOM which is shoving everything eastward. I think 50% is very generous, based on current vivible evidence, and a general NE'wd movement of the low level moisture.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While [Re: scottsvb]
      #90361 - Mon Jun 06 2011 03:36 PM

I'm still unimpressed looking at the latest sat pics. 91E looks much better over on the Pacific side.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While [Re: MichaelA]
      #90362 - Mon Jun 06 2011 04:55 PM

91E will become a hurricane though.. 70% chance of that.. 50-50 on the WC thing

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While [Re: MikeC]
      #90363 - Mon Jun 06 2011 04:55 PM

Invest 94L still has a long way to go before it can be considered as a tropical cyclone. Since the 18Z development probability upgrade to 50 percent, the convection has been on the wane again. Very early this morning three separate low to mid-level circulations were evident within the larger envelope of cyclonic turning. Convective outflow boundary collisions have altered the convective pattern throughout the day with some areas on the decrease while other areas were developing - but the total pattern really hasn't changed all that much.

One correction: Pressure has actually remained steady today - at 1140Z the central pressure was estimated at 1006MB and at 1837Z it was still 1006MB.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
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Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #90366 - Mon Jun 06 2011 06:56 PM

Shear is starting to set in on the disturbance, and it I'm thinking the recon won't go out tomorrow. I'd be surprised at this point if it does develop.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
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Loc: fl
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While [Re: MikeC]
      #90368 - Mon Jun 06 2011 10:45 PM

Yeah... key for this was tonight.. and it's lost the convection it had from the series of weak midlevel lows near and to its west today. I give this now a 20% chance of coming back.. but probably wont be till it gets in the GOM by Thurs-Friday.. but 20% isnt much of a chance.

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While [Re: Bloodstar]
      #90369 - Tue Jun 07 2011 01:49 AM

Well, as most of us have posted, 94L clearly has lacked and continues to lack certain dynamics necessary for further development. Had the deep layer motion existed a couple days ago, so to allow the system to move ENE or NE, then the "net" shear would have been less impacting and perhaps a depression or weak storm might have formed under less formidable upper air conditions. In the face of the increasing sub tropical jet, it would just seem unrealistic to expect that any amount of consolidation might be adequite in building such an upper anticyclone that such long latitude westerlies would be rendered insignificant.

As far as Florida's parched lawns are concerned, we have certainly seen our share of unorganized training of deep Caribbean moisture over the years. On past occassions, over 48 hours of copious precipitation has meant widespread areas receiving 3-6 inches ( or more ) of rain. I hope i'm wrong, but am fearing that most of the low level moisture from 94L will simply pass to the south of most areas, while limited impact of increase in moisture, be mostly limited to a thickening Cirrus deck and perhaps very widely scattered light to moderate showers. Low level convergence will then play some role in what regions might receive some appreciable precip, but i'd not anticipate 2 or more inches over Lake "O" or other widespread areas of South/Central Florida. On the topic of "drought busting rains" ( mod's feel free to relocate this to a more appropriate forum ), I recall years ago how I much enjoyed speaking with Jim Lushine with Miami NWS and recall his unofficial correlation between unusually dry South Florida months of May and heightened risk of tropical cyclone landfalls for the region. Though no concrete relationship was established, I would be curious to know how continued dry conditions into June might have shown further correlation to those years with S. Florida landfalls.

(The 7AM Update did include commentary on the drought, however any 'correlation' questions should be directed to the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jun 07 2011 11:58 AM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While [Re: weathernet]
      #90371 - Tue Jun 07 2011 09:53 AM

It looks like the moisture is going to miss Florida as it's being carried off to the NE and E. That t-storm cluster south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands looks rather suspicious to me today.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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adam s
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 20
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While [Re: MikeC]
      #90373 - Tue Jun 07 2011 03:53 PM

What are the chances that the moisture with Invest 94L affects Florida? Do you think Invest 94L has already lost it's time to become a tropical depression?

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While [Re: adam s]
      #90374 - Tue Jun 07 2011 04:14 PM

The chances of it becoming a depression were never very good, but it's basically lost that. It also appears the system will not really add any rainfall to Florida, unfortunately. If system stays there a bit longer, what the "NAM" model shows is more of the moisture stream heading north, which increases chances, but not as much as needed.


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