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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Current Location [Re: danielw]
      #91107 - Thu Aug 04 2011 01:06 AM

I don't normally use comedy on the thread. "But You ain't gonna believe this". Emily is blooming!
Multiple vortices spaced throughout the convection.



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Bloodstar
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 461
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Current Model Swath [Re: Bev]
      #91108 - Thu Aug 04 2011 01:13 AM

In a way, having so many knowledgeable people commenting makes it intimidating to post. That's not a bad thing. I feel like I know quite a bit for being an enthusiast, I just feel that I don't want to have my contributions amount to nothing more than an, 'I Agree with what he/she said.'

Maybe I should stop worrying so much.

Of course, (back on topic) with Emily there doesn't seem to be a good way to handle what the storm is going to do. I have little confidence in the models, and yet, I have even less confidence in any other possible track. It seems kind of silly to post, 'it's a storm, and I'm clueless as to what it's going to do.' In this case, I think it applies. Emily has been a very hard to manage storm for forecast purposes.

We'll find out soon enough if the storm had slowed down further (if it did, then the circulation will be more embedded on the western part of the CDO) is now a bit stronger and will start to turn north. If it hasn't then the storm is going to continue to confound everyone and continue west as a weakish TS.

As I said, rampant speculation, And we'll find out more soon enough.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 198
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Current Location [Re: danielw]
      #91109 - Thu Aug 04 2011 01:26 AM

Awesome image! Looks like the core of Emily will successfully avoid Haiti's highest elevation (nearly 8800 feet) and the widest portion of the island's mountainous terrain:


--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 04 2011 01:32 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Current Location [Re: danielw]
      #91111 - Thu Aug 04 2011 01:47 AM

Further research reveals the green circle is at, or near the Center. Recon should be arriving there shortly. I am a slight bit concerned about the cirrus outflow pattern and the appearance of a few jagged edges in the NW Quadrant.
Emily could be consolidating and deepening.




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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Current Location [Re: danielw]
      #91112 - Thu Aug 04 2011 01:49 AM

Those of us who have either professionally forecasted, studied and tracked tropical cyclones , or chased and filmed their landfalls can really empathise with those at NHC for the ability to remain objective and avoid getting "punch drunk" over the ups and down's of storms such as Emily. This storm really takes the cake for one of the longest ongoing Tropical Contradictions. This might be the first system that if a clear eye suddenly appear on IR, that many will simply question ...where is the "real" center!? Will be anxious to find what pressure, location fix, and forward motion from the upcoming recon.

On a sidenote, given the early 0Z GFS run, I cannot help but be somewhat skeptical as too "how much" of the NOAA Gulfstream data actually made it into the 0Z run. Would be nice to get some sense of clarification.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Current Model Swath [Re: Bloodstar]
      #91113 - Thu Aug 04 2011 02:13 AM

2:00am Intermediate Advisory just out. Makes perfect sense too.

The fact that most of us are viewing the various nightime IR resolutions and appear to see a ( or several ) LLC embedded within the bursting convection, that the outflow seems to be expanding, that Emily appears to exhibit a greater degree of rotation and all the while still avoiding land friction -

Only "this storm" would display as such, while meanwhile the 2:00am advisory lowest current pressure reported is 1006, thus a 2mb RISE from the previous advisory. We might just have to wait for another near "de-coupling" of LLC and mid level before giving up a solid 6+mb drop in pressure (LOL).

This storm is nutty, and i'm off to bed.......


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Bloodstar
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Current Model Swath [Re: weathernet]
      #91114 - Thu Aug 04 2011 03:44 AM

I suspect the storm is taking the weaker and more westerly track. It just can't get vertically stacked well enough to establish itself. It should be interesting tomorrow.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Current Model Swath [Re: Bloodstar]
      #91115 - Thu Aug 04 2011 03:49 AM

Very nice convective burst. It is still very difficult to determine where the COC is in the CDC. It is hard to say what direction Emily is currently going.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Current Model Swath [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #91116 - Thu Aug 04 2011 04:53 AM

05:00 advisory is out:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 040849
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY
AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Current Model Swath [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #91117 - Thu Aug 04 2011 04:57 AM

05:00 discussion is out. Interesting.....

000
WTNT45 KNHC 040853
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT EMILY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...AND IT IS VERY WEAK ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET DATA
INDICATED 300 MB WINDS BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 45 KT. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT ITS MISSION DUE
TO AVIONICS PROBLEMS.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD
TURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72
HR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA
WILL EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF EMILY. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS YET
ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE SHIPS...
LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR DUE
TO SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 HR SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Current Model Swath [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #91118 - Thu Aug 04 2011 05:57 AM

Significant weakening in the last couple of frames on IR. Could this mean a more westerly component is in store for Emily?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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