doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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What may have been the midlevel center, (and IS the circulation center around which all the convection was centered) went across the southern peninsula of the DR about an hour ago and immediately the convection began to wane. This circulation center is on a path to stay inland across Hatai. Now it is only a question of what will emerge on the western side and then what.
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doug
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Its like a repeat of the last 2 days, but this time looks like the mid level spin is moving north over the DR, and the LLC is dying out. The MLC is moving at a good clip now so it will be north of the island in the not too distant future and we will see if it can drill down to the surface then if it survives
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Just as the upper levels started to look favorable the lower level inflow has been cut off by the island. Emily looks to be running out of steam... the IR loop shows a much weaker storm, almost back to depression status. Wondering if we'll have a "jumper" where their entire circulation falls apart only to reform in completely separate location further down the road. Back on advisory #5A the had her as a depression at this point (2PM Thurs) but that assumed she was off the island and trying to regroup. Right now her survival depends on getting further north (to warm water quickly) as any more west (even NW) motion puts her on top of Cuba tomorrow and she is clearly not strong enough for that path.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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adam s
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 20
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Emily looks like an open wave on radar. The center looks open. Does anyone think that Emily can still be a threat for the bahamas?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4490
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Latest Best Track file from the National Weather Service now references Emily as a wave again, it looks very likely that Emily will be downgraded at 5PM. Hispaniola appears to have done in yet another storm.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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TBH.... the best chance for this to make a comeback would be the LLV just north east of Jamaica that is racing away (and came from Emily..though doubt it was the actual LLC). seems to pick up on this as it did in the past run and take this north starting Friday between Jamaica and Caymans and crossing Cuba Friday night into Saturday... UKMet has a simular run.. probably why it shows dramatic streak positions deminstrating its picking up redevelopment of a wave in a 24 period. This also take its north then west. simular.
So with the decaying midlevel center over SW Haiti... Best Bet would be for this to reform (somewhat if it does) ala between Jamaica-Caymans on Friday heading NNW.
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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If Emily dissipates and becomes an open wave later today (which is looking more likely) I don't see her having a good chance of regeneration/redevelopment. The models that showed her falling apart seemed to have picked up on something that I missed. I expected weakening over Hispaniola, but unless the LLC develops elsewhere once offshore, I don't think we will see much more of Emily. Also, if the LLC were to redevelop, it would likely be farther to the north and/or east. Either way, I think Florida's chance of direct impacts is looking lower this afternoon.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
Edited by WesnWylie (Thu Aug 04 2011 03:05 PM)
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Agreed 100%. But it just smashed into Jamaica as some convection was building. Lets see if that and the interaction with Cuba later on really puts this one to bed for good.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Scott has an excellent grasp on the situation.
Here is a graphic to go along with that. Emily's high cloud tops over the mid/ upper level Center area can be seen on the Cuban radar at Gran Piedra, Cuba.
I have placed markers on what I believe is the center top and the latest position.
Copyright © 1997-2011. INSMET ® Todos los derechos reservados
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 04 2011 03:34 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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What an incredible storm. In the 10.5 hours since I left for work immediately following my last post, Emily has gone from looking really good on IR to complete collapse.
NHC has discontinued advisories and is now calling the storm "Remnants of Emily" in their Atlantic header..
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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She really looked good early this morning on the IR sat shots. Hmmm
Do you think She'll be back?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4490
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The mid levels still look good, but it really has collapsed otherwise. will probably give it a 50% chance or so on the 8PM outlook. Maybe tomorrow you can tell if it will come back or not, personally I'm leaning toward it not.
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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An intersting thought...
If you take away all of the convective clouds in this loop and just look at the wave itself, its enormous. It stretches now from the southern tip of FLA almost all the way to the South American coast.
4km Visible
Am I correct in stating that the larger the wave the tougher/longer it takes to get spinning?
B
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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The biggest problem this system has had from the beginning is the lack of vertical stacking. The MLC was constantly competing with the LLC for dominance. That being said, the mid level system still looks to be in tact and will emerge on the north coast late tonight. I think there is a good shot at development if it makes it there intact. I think what was the LLC is done as far as anything happening with it
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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M.A.
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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After what we have seen from Emily so far, I would not doubt for a second that something will fester during the DM. I believe the MLC still looks deciently intact over the center of Hispanola. My guess, if she regenerates, it would be somewhere near the Turks and Cacios area and becoming a fish spinner from there. Emily has been a very strange entity, boom to bust several times. I guess we all enjoyed the show though.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4490
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Several of the 18Z model runs from tonight were hinting at regeneration between 20-38 hours, but none are making landfall in Florida. Although the HWRF is very close. I went over a few in the Forecast Lounge.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Wave axis is slightly tilted... LLV is now near 18.9N and 76.8W moving about 290dg at 16mph..with trough axis heading NNE from there to 21.5N 75.5W
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 942
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Talk about being ripped apart! Looking at the Floater unenhanced IR and the RGB loops, it is readily evident that the mid-level circulation went due North over western DR while the LLC virtually dissipated. There does seem to be a small LLC with some limited convection near 17.4N; 71.8W, But I wouldn't think that will survive for very long.
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Michael
PWS
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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1AM eastern... estimated LLV is located near 19.3N and 77.5N
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 433
Loc: Longwood, FL
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As of 0307 EDT, is anyone seeing anythng at 19.6N 74.7W? I think I am seeing the remnants of a LLC.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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