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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 337 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Tropical Storm Gert (Former TD7) SSE of Bermuda
      #91244 - Thu Aug 11 2011 07:14 AM

Update - Sunday, August 14, 5PM EDT
Based on Recon, NHC upgraded TD7 to Tropical Storm Gert with sustained winds of 40 knots. Gert is listed as moving NNW, however past movement had been more WNW when convection was displaced from the low level center last night. Southwesterly upper level flow is still causing some shear over Gert and this flow is expected to increase over the next couple of days. Intermittent convective displacement is still possible which could cause a wobbling system track and fluctuations in intensity until the system structure improves. Since the current NHC expectation is for Gert to pass near Bermuda on Monday afternoon, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Island.
ED
Weather Conditions at Hamilton, Bermuda

Bermuda Weather Radar

11:30 PM EDT 13 August 2011 Update
Franklin has weakened and under cool SSTs of 25C the system has become extratropical. Invest 94L is now Tropical Depression 7 located about 360 miles SSE of Bermuda and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. TD7 is expected to intensify but the system has a large SAL area to the east and a lot of dry air to contend with so any intensification should be slow.

Invest 92L is looking a lot better in terms of convection and organization this evening and 92L could create erratic movement for TD7 in the next couple of days. 92L will be moving into a less hostile upper air environment and also has a chance for additional intensification.

Invest 93L in the east-central Atlantic, because of significant dry air to the north of the system, has been on a rapid decline and may not recover.
ED


6:30 AM EDT 13 August 2011 Update
Tropical Storm Franklin has formed, from Tropical Depression Six in the middle of the Atlantic, moving North East. This system is no threat to land and is another named system this year that will likely fail to reach hurricane strength.

The story with the rest of the watched areas in the Atlantic remains basically unchanged.

5PM EDT 12 August 2011 Update
Invest 95L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Six located over 250 miles to the north of Bermuda. The TD is moving to the east northeast and an east northeast to northeast movement should continue until the system merges with a frontal zone in a couple of days (or less). The system already exhibits some extratropical characteristics. Some minor additional development is possible and TD6 could become a minimal Tropical Storm later tonight or on Saturday.
ED

The wave northeast of the Leewards (now tracked at 94L) is looking the best of the rest tonight and may well wind up being the next depression to develop. Luckily this appears like it too will recurve.

In short, all except the easternmost wave (93L) looks to have very little chance of affecting land.


7 AM EDT 12 August 2011 Update
The tropics continue to bubble today with 4 separate areas worth watching. A broad low area northeast of the Caribbean has "broke off" from the remnants of Emily and moved with the flow back south. This is very weak at the moment, but based on the time of year it has to be watched to see if something comes of it, it is not being tracked as an invest it this time. Of all the systems currently highlighted in the Atlantic, this may wind up being the most interesting and it should be watched closely to see if anything forms out of it, if it does it has a higher than usual chance to affect the Bahamas and possibly the coast. Thankfully it is the least likely to develop out of all the systems in the Hurricane Center's outlook.

92L remains weak and by far most likely to recurve before reaching any land.

93L, if it remains weak and in the shadow of 92L will likely continue westward, if it were develop and strengthen chances of it moving north and recurving are much greater. It too will have to be monitored, but it is still most likely to recurve at some point. (Although like yesterday, it's much too far out to be certain of it)

It is likely the latter half of August will be busy in the tropics, with a good number of storms, but few making it close enough to worry about. The most concerning systems will be the ones that form closer toward the US or off of old fronts or systems.

Original Update
The Atlantic is starting to bubble up as it heads into mid August. Next week it appears there may be two systems being tracked, but thankfully the pattern is somewhat similar to last year in that most storms that form off Africa will likely recurve before reaching the US. There is some potential chance that the eastern Caribbean islands may see some affects from 93L (The second system), but it will have to be monitored.

Unlike last year, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative pattern that helped to prevent storms from reaching the coast isn't quite as strong, but still nothing like 2004/2005 that basically gave odds favoring landfall over not. This month, odds are most any system that develops off Africa will recurve, probably 70% chance that they do. Patterns can change, so the chance remains the systems can slip through. See the forecast lounge for more speculation on these systems.

Outside of that, there is ex Emily, which is mainlining itself but conditions just aren't favorable for redevelopment.

The area causing the rain in Florida lately is a trough of low pressure, if anything forms out of this it would be a very slow process, and would move east and away from the US.

In short, lots of potential things in the tropics, but nothing solid, next week will likely be much more active, but thankfully odds for any threat to the US that week is probably 1 in 10, and the eastern Caribbean islands 1 in 4. We'll monitor the trends, if either system were to buck the odds it would likely be the eastern most wave (93L)


92L (West Atlantic Wave) Event Related Links


float9latest.gif stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 92L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



TS Gert Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of TS Gert
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TS Gert


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TS Gert (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TS Gert (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TS Gert

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TS Gert
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TS Gert -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Long term Central Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)

Long term West Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)



Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 15 2011 12:01 AM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #91258 - Fri Aug 12 2011 08:37 AM

Yes, lots of areas to watch for potential development this week. The wave train over Africa has set up rather nicely too. Coming into the meat of the season, things could get going rather quickly.

EDIT: Seems the FSU servers are down this morning.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

Edited by MichaelA (Fri Aug 12 2011 08:41 AM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: MichaelA]
      #91264 - Fri Aug 12 2011 01:12 PM

92L - looks like it is getting vertically stacked and developing.
93L - not much happening to that today.
94L - sheared and looking less and less likely to develop.
95L - sub-tropical?

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: MichaelA]
      #91268 - Fri Aug 12 2011 04:28 PM

95L will be classified at 5:00pm

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: Rich B]
      #91269 - Fri Aug 12 2011 04:49 PM

Best Track:
AL, 06, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 357N, 647W, 30, 1011, TD,

The system looks very extratropical - at least more subtropical than tropical but we'll know in a few minutes.
ED


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91270 - Fri Aug 12 2011 05:12 PM

Local Tampa news station is now reporting tropical storm number 5 has formed in the atlatnic, This would be the cable news 9 sttion on their website.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91271 - Fri Aug 12 2011 05:17 PM

Still looks to be subtropical to me. Did NHC drop that term from use? Maybe they declared it due to shipping interests.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #91272 - Fri Aug 12 2011 05:17 PM

That is not a correct report since Emily was the fifth TS of the season. As noted by the NHC, Invest 95L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Six.
ED


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91274 - Fri Aug 12 2011 05:26 PM

You are correct it is number 6 and I am the poor reporter.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #91275 - Fri Aug 12 2011 06:09 PM

The tropics are boiling at this point, although only 93L has any chance of affecting anything. 94L was a bit of a surprise, but after looking at it (and models run on it), looks like it too will recurve. It may resemble last year, with lots of activity, but not much affecting land. 94L may wind up forming before the other two. And it's downright possible we'll have 3, maybe 4, tracked systems in the Atlantic at the same time.

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Edski
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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #91276 - Fri Aug 12 2011 11:18 PM

just the locations of the four systems seem to imply a strong Bermuda High, and a high chance of these systems recurving into the drink. 93 looks like the most menacing to avoid that fate, at least track wise. But it looks like it's suffering from dry air or Saharan dust right now, so I'm not to impressed right now with that system.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #91290 - Sun Aug 14 2011 12:35 AM

Looking at our four systems in the Atlantic (Franklin remnants, TD7, 92L SE of Bermuda, and 93L Mid-Atlantic):

Franklin remnants: Transitioned to an extratropical storm, well out to sea, being ripped apart, and not looking to ever effect land even as a remnant.

Tropical Depression 7: NHC takes it passing near Bermuda, but strength wise it does not show any sign of becoming anything major. Most likely will pass Bermuda as a Tropical Storm, may strengthen a fraction more after that before transitioning to extratropical and following Franklin out to sea. No effect to anything but Bermuda, and that is minimal given it's lack of being a wind event.

92L: Actually looks almost better on IR than TD7 does. Somewhat surprised that NHC is giving it only a 30% chance of development. It has already developed a very deep CDO and is taking on a slight comma-like appearance. Vorticity models show plenty of spin around it, too. However, even if it should become our next Atlantic storm, like Franklin and TD7, it should be staying well out to sea with only a possible effect on Bermuda.


(92L Funktop IR satellite view)

93L: This system is mid-atlantic, looks pretty weak at present. Not a lot of convection, fair amount of SAL to its north affecting it, but not in line with it's path. Models show little chance of development over the short term, but this system bears much more long term watching. Vorticity models show that the spin will stay intact for an extended period of time as it heads westward, and with no development, there is nothing to pull the system north. I would keep an eye on this system for possible development in a few days. To me, this system bears the most watching since it is the only one of the four systems that might not spin fish, should it develop.


Ref:
Cyclone Phase - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
GFS Models - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
SAL - http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
IR / WV - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Aug 14 2011 12:44 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: More Bubbles, But No Pop Yet in the Tropics [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91291 - Sun Aug 14 2011 10:48 AM

Amazing what a few hours does. 92L has completely collapsed. Not much chance of it doing anything now, in my opinion.

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ShanaTX
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Re: Franklin Now Extratropical But Tropical Depression 7 Forms [Re: MikeC]
      #91292 - Sun Aug 14 2011 03:32 PM

TD 7 is now TS Gert

I was really hopin Invest 93 would hold together longer.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Tropical Storm Gert (Former TD7) SSE of Bermuda [Re: MikeC]
      #91295 - Sun Aug 14 2011 11:20 PM

At 15/03Z, Gert continues moving generally north toward Bermuda as a 40knot Tropical Storm. On the current track forecast the cyclone would pass a little to the east of Bermuda on Monday, however, any expansion or slight shift to the left would bring stronger winds over the Island.

Invest 92L seems to be getting absorbed by Gert's circulation and its becoming difficult to recognize 92L as a separate system.

I'm not quite sure that I understand the reason for this one, but there is actually yet another system in the north Atlantic - newly minted Invest 96L which was located at 36.7N 63.8W at 14/18Z. It is moving rapidly to the north and was close to 39N at 15/03Z. Its a small system with a circulation and convection displaced to the east of the center. It will soon get absorbed by a frontal system to its west.
ED


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