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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: MikeC]
      #91736 - Tue Aug 23 2011 06:48 PM


Persons up the Eastern Seaboard including, if perhaps particularly New England really need to start monitoring this system.

This is a bit of an anomalous set up in that some of the better deep layer mechanics for intensification actually exist (per modeling) as the system is lifting N along the Gulf Stream. The collocation of those circumstances make intensity along a guidance-converged track consensus uncertain. A lot of these guidance that show intensification in that region of it prognosticated track have a basis in synoptic reasoning.


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syfr
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #91740 - Tue Aug 23 2011 07:28 PM

Quote:


The collocation of those circumstances make intensity along a guidance-converged track consensus uncertain. A lot of these guidance that show intensification in that region of it prognosticated track have a basis in synoptic reasoning.




I think this means in English that "we don't know exactly how strong the storm is going to get as it moves along the forecast track , but it sure might get stronger!"



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: syfr]
      #91741 - Tue Aug 23 2011 08:33 PM

Recon is finding pressures of 965 mb, Irene is strengthening over the Turks and Caicos, not good news for them.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: MikeC]
      #91742 - Tue Aug 23 2011 08:37 PM

Eye is also becoming visible on IR and WV loops, though it is not entirely clear of convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html


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Joeyfl
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91743 - Tue Aug 23 2011 08:48 PM

Check out this satellite clearly see eye and very deep convection/eyewall just south of Turks island...All kinds of cool features can be overlayed onto satellite including guidance.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?l...;mm=0&hur=0
*Note the due west wobble past hour*


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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91744 - Tue Aug 23 2011 08:54 PM

Eye fix only 9 minutes apart by two difference planes has a 11nm difference in eye. Looks like an ERC is underway:



Vortex recon at 0:06Z

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)


Vortex recon at 0:15Z

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg)
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): RAGGED
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91745 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:00 PM




With the latest recon wind report it looks like Irene is back up to Category 2 at least.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: Joeyfl]
      #91746 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:28 PM

Added some Bahamas related links:





We are now recording the Rocky Bay webcam at Abaco Island in the Bahamas -- note these images are large.

Hope Town Fire rescue on Abaco Island, storm information


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91747 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:32 PM

Quote:

Eye fix only 9 minutes apart by two difference planes has a 11nm difference in eye. Looks like an ERC is underway:



Vortex recon at 0:06Z

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)


Vortex recon at 0:15Z

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg)
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): RAGGED
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles)




That seems a little rapid, and perhaps it is, but such a fluctuation is not necessarily indicative of an eyewall replacement cycle, or even an imminent ERC. There is little suggestion that concentric eyewalls exist at this time (a requisite of a potential replacement cycle).


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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: cieldumort]
      #91748 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:36 PM

That is what I was thinking, but the TRMM overpass microwave imagery shows the dual eyewall structure. The remnants of the old wall are visible in the eastern semicircle, but the outer eyewall is visible through the entire diameter.

From NRL:



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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91749 - Tue Aug 23 2011 09:55 PM

In the above image provided it is Important to note the time stamp on the microwave pass (2312Z), so if this was proof of an extra eyewall, it would have been from an eyewall that has already cycled, not of one currently undergoing a replacement, nor about to do so. Recon has made no mention I can find of concentric eyewalls, I have not seen that NHC has as much as speculated, and it is very uncommon for Cat1/2s to undergo an ERC. More likely what we are looking at is just a well-curved inflow band, rather than remnants of a former eyewall.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: cieldumort]
      #91750 - Tue Aug 23 2011 10:21 PM

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 23:17Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Observation Number: 36
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 22:42Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°2'N 71°45'W (21.0333N 71.75W)
B. Center Fix Location: 49 miles (79 km) to the SW (233°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (284°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 26° at 81kts (From the NNE at ~ 93.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 969mb (28.61 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,438m (7,999ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,418m (7,933ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 81kts (~ 93.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 22:35Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CENTER DROP SPLASHED AT 20 KT

Outside/ Inside Temp Spread is 5C
Inside Temp/ Dewpoint Spread is 6C
With an Open Eye Wall. The spreads should begin to increase shortly.
Convection is consolidating and Dmax is about 6 hours from now.
Dmax is the Diurnal Maximum near Sunrise. Whereas Dmin is the Diurnal Minimum near Sunset.


Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 23 2011 10:28 PM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91752 - Tue Aug 23 2011 10:35 PM

It does give that appearance but this may actually be incidental. EWR cycles tend to take place with very intense cyclones, usually above lower level Category 3 storms.

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: cieldumort]
      #91753 - Tue Aug 23 2011 10:38 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Eye fix only 9 minutes apart by two difference planes has a 11nm difference in eye. Looks like an ERC is underway:



Vortex recon at 0:06Z

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)


Vortex recon at 0:15Z

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg)
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): RAGGED
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles)




That seems a little rapid, and perhaps it is, but such a fluctuation is not necessarily indicative of an eyewall replacement cycle, or even an imminent ERC. There is little suggestion that concentric eyewalls exist at this time (a requisite of a potential replacement cycle).




Agreed with you here - I just also mentioned to 'Chaos that this was probably incidental imagery more than action taking place, and explained why.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #91754 - Wed Aug 24 2011 12:20 AM

Water Vapor appears to show a very westerly component of movement between 23:45 UTC and 3:45 UTC.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #91755 - Wed Aug 24 2011 12:47 AM

Excellent observation. Note that at 03Z NHC nudged the latitude to 21.3N but recon at 0337Z reported 21.1, so thats about 12 miles of northward component that never occurred. However the general motion over an extended period of time may have been WNW. Like many a past stubborn storm (think Bertha), the timing of the expected turn can certainly get to be exasperating.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Irene Moving Away from Hispaniola [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91756 - Wed Aug 24 2011 01:20 AM

Water vapor loop shows a wave developing on the front off the coast of North Carolina which is pulling down a reinforcing ridge over South Carolina and Georgia. This could maintain a tighter compression ridge over Irene and contribute to the westerly motion. I can't see anything else that would cause it other than a rather unusual wobble because of some unknown hurricane dynamic. It seems unusual when you are anticipating an imminent turn to the northwest.
ED


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