MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Jacksonville, FL Area Media:
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Latest recon Vortex Data message confirms 80knot winds in the northwest quadrant, Beryl is a borderline hurricane right now. If you are on still on the beach in northeast Florida (Finagler, St. Augustine, Jacksonville Beaches) Please stay safe, there is no time to evacuate.
993mb, 80knot winds flight level nw quad.
The last time Jacksonville dealt with a direct hurricane hit was David in 1979, which was relatively weak, and the last very notable hurricane was 1964's Dora.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Mike and ED correct me if I'm wrong. In the case of Beryl where the storm is moving west toward land. The NW Quadrant, or right front quadrant is the area of strongest winds. Where normally the NE Quadrant has the strongest winds in a storm moving in a northerly direction.
Using the latest Vortex. I'm thinking they may have to upgrade at 11 PM.
The Florida Peninsula is well known for upgrades at Landfall.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2136
Loc: Austin, Tx
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The strongest band so far is now pushing into coastal northeast Florida.
Even before this, sustained winds in excess of 50PMH have been recorded onshore, along with some minor storm surge being reported pushing in.
As far as locations further inland are concerned, most of the potentially damaging wind will come in the form of gusts, perhaps up to hurricane force (in gusts). However, it is more possible that a few sustained near hurricane force, and possibly even isolated hurricane force winds, will occur right along the coast tonight, as Beryl is still in the process of winding up some more, despite the lower SSTs.
0830 PM TROPICAL STORM 1 N MAYPORT 30.40N 81.41W
05/27/2012 DUVAL FL MESONET
MESONET EQUIPMENT AT HUGUENOT PARK RECORDED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH WITH A PEAK WIND GUST OF 63 MPH.
0845 PM STORM SURGE 5 S DUNGENESS 30.67N 81.46W 05/27/2012 M3.47 FT NASSAU FL OTHER FEDERAL THE NOS BUOY AT FERNANDINA BEACH SHOWED A STORM SURGE OF 3.47 FEET.
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papaswamp
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: St.Johns, FL
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45-50mph here with 1 gust to 62. Driving rain, downed tree limbs, minor street flooding. I'm in Palm Vally/Ponte Vedra Beach, just south of Jacksonville Beach.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Also of concern is the heightened probabilities for tornadoes associated with the storm. Beryl is beginning to come ashore east of Jacksonville with the central rain/squall already onshore along the coastal areas of NE Florida.
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Michael
WU PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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We might have a bit of a problem here. I've looked a few of the high resolution models and one or two of the models drift Beryl to a point close to Tallahassee. This location would allow the system to pickup moisture from the GOM.
Tampa NWS AFD excerpt:
THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS IN
TERMS OF HOW FAR INLAND WILL BERYL BE ABLE TO PENETRATE. IF THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION MAKES IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE TALLAHASSEE
CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...IT WILL ALLOW FOR OVERALL FLOW TO SWITCH TO
AS MORE W/SW REGIME...WHICH WILL TAP INTO DEEPER/WARMER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF ON MONDAY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTBW&max=61
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Yes, I've been expecting for the system that is Beryl to begin pulling moisture and energy from the GOM as it moves westward tomorrow. That would begin to pull moisture and rain from the Gulf onshore here in the Tampa Bay area through Tuesday as the wind backs to a more southwesterly direction.
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Michael
WU PWS
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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The 18Z shows a slight GOM deepening before moving Beryl (or remnants) back on shore.
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 28/03Z, maintains Beryl's intensity at 60 kts - still a strong tropical storm located 35 miles east of Jacksonville and starting to move inland. As noted by , with a portion of the circulation now over land (and a small portion of the center as well) the intensity will not further increase and the weakening process will soon be underway - which is good news for those that are contending with Beryl's wind and rain. Doppler radar estimated winds have started to decrease.
ED
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papaswamp
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: St.Johns, FL
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Reported tornado on the ground in the fruit cove area. As bands are rotating on the eastern side from SW to NE they seem to gain intensity.
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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Pretty amazing that the remnants of Beryl (in NJ area) has a feeder band causing strong storms in central Florida tonight. She is still a big girl!
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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