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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
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Gulf of Mexico 96L Almost a Tropical Storm. Now a 35+ MPH Disturbance.
      #92742 - Fri Jun 22 2012 07:16 AM

Update 12:00PM EDT 06/23/2012
96L is still quite a jumper. Between 6AM EDT and 9AM EDT, the LLC re-centered, "jumped," yet again. Such is often the pattern of underdeveloped, or marginally developed, tropical cyclones.

So now the LLC is centered roughly near 26N 88W, and looks to be drifting slowly to the west. However, despite this present westward slide, the net effect of all of these jumps has been to establish the system appreciably farther north, and it now lies in the east-central Gulf of Mexico, putting coastal locations along the eastern Gulf of Mexico under greater risk from rip currents and minor flooding, earlier than might have been anticipated by many.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are likely to be issued sooner rather than later, and may even go out before the cyclone is named, but unfortunately, any watches that would go up now would have to cover an unusually wide area, given the uncertainties that still exists, so it is prudent that NHC waits until the next round of model runs and today's recon flight. However, by holding off, is also possible that should 96L be upgraded (virtually a 100% likelihood), it is upgraded strait to a tropical storm, potentially even in the 45-55 MPH range.

If named, Debby would be the earliest fourth named storm in the Atlantic, not to mention make this the first June on record with a fourth named storm in the basin.
Ciel

Update 9:30 AM EDT 06/23/2012
Recon is going today around 12:15 PM EDT, Based on this morning's tropical weather outlook, Tropical Storm Watches and Warnngs may be needed for the northern/northeastern Gulf tonight or tomorrow.

Still too soon to say exactly what the storm will do, so the entire gulf coast will need to watch this system.

Update 6:00 AM EDT 06/23/2012
We finally have a somewhat better lock on the Gulf of Mexico disturbance, as shear has eased overnight, and the system has taken greater hold a little bit farther north in the south-central Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the disturbance is not nearly as broad as it was just last night, exhibiting a tightening of incipient spiral banding features evident in microwave imagery, and a more substantial low level circulation center.

The estimated primary center of 96L as of this update is now located near 24.2N 87.9W, and it has been meandering very little, ever so slowly, over the past several hours. While the system remains sheared and relatively devoid of convection on its western side, deep convection is beginning to fill back in on its east, and more importantly, filling in closer to the LLC.

Ship and buoy reports also suggest that the disturbance is organizing more, and intensifying. Surface pressures are falling at a faster clip, winds are more decisively cyclonic, and stronger.

Models still are in wild disagreement as to the future track of 96L. Locations from Florida to northern Mexico should continue paying close attention to this system. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we should finally have a better handle on what the steering currents are going to be, and what kind of animal it is that they are going to be steering.

In the near term, heavy rainbands could be impacting parts of Florida today, some parts of which are already saturated, and at risk of flooding. The eastern Gulf of Mexico coastlines will have a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents. Farther north and west, minor flooding will continue in southern Louisiana, where bold east winds are producing higher than normal tides.
Ciel



Original Post
Tropical Storm Chris remains out to sea and is expected to make an extra-tropical transition later today.

The area in the Gulf of Mexico is centered roughly near the Yucatan, but is still quite disorganized. There is a tentative recon flight scheduled to go out today but may not occur if the system stays disorganized.

The models are split as two of the most reliable ones continue to swing back and forth from Texas to Florida, and the idea of remaining weak/splitting the energy (ie, rain) continues to be there. The eventual position of the center if and when this system develops will be the deciding factor. Either way rain seems likely for Florida over the weekend, and relatively rough surf may show up in the Gulf of Mexico.



In short, this system will probably meander about in the Gulf staying semi disorganized for much of the time, the eventual track of the system is highly dependent on where an actual center forms. All of the Gulf coast should be monitoring it for changes.

There is a it curves over Florida bringing a lot of rain in 3-4 days, and some to keep energy toward the west and possibly Texas, or points between. If it were to move out in the shorter term, more likely it would remain weak, the possibility of a split still exists, and it would keep the entire system disorganized much longer.

The best guess for a center currently, is that it has drifted off the east of the Yucatan, where a lot of the convection is. While a system is disorganized center reformations or movement play a big role in how accurate or not the models are. Runs that occur before the reformation is picked up may become invalidated, especially in borderline conditions like this. This reformation toward the east gives a slight bias toward the idea of more rain for Florida. The last official best track was north of the Yucatan, but this may giving way to the newer area toward the east based on wind observations. It may take another day or two before the system can be upgraded.


North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX
Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -


Debby Event Related Links


float4latest.gif stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2012&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Debby
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Debby


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Debby (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Debby (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Debby

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Debby
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Debby -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: System in Gulf Still Disorganized, Uncertain [Re: MikeC]
      #92748 - Fri Jun 22 2012 11:33 AM

The recon flight for today was cancelled, but there is another scheduled for tomorrow.

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WesnWylie
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Re: System in Gulf Still Disorganized, Uncertain [Re: MikeC]
      #92755 - Fri Jun 22 2012 07:33 PM

Even though convection has died down (at least temporarily), I see a distinct spin off the NE tip of the Yucatan. I'm also seeing a vortex farther to the north in the Central GOM. Not much convection is associated with this feature, though. I'm anxious to see what the NHC says with their evening update.



Edited by WesnWylie (Fri Jun 22 2012 07:33 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: System in Gulf Still Disorganized, Uncertain [Re: MikeC]
      #92756 - Fri Jun 22 2012 07:47 PM

Added long term recording of the nasa color gulf sat
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?130

or http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/imageanimator.php?130 (if older browsers)


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Joeyfl
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Re: System in Gulf Still Disorganized, Uncertain [Re: MikeC]
      #92757 - Fri Jun 22 2012 08:12 PM

I still am a little puzzled why recon was cancelled with probabilities now at 80% along with the fact that the low level circulation is becoming better defined throughout the day and evening, while convection near this center has waned some albeit likely briefly, the center looks to be near Yucatan channel or slightly north. Good chance this will be going to TS status tomorrow on its current trends.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: System in Gulf Still Disorganized, Uncertain [Re: Joeyfl]
      #92758 - Fri Jun 22 2012 08:23 PM

Mainly because it's so disorganized, and was working its way up slowly, 80% is over 48 hours, I'd expect them to go into tomorrow. The "split" nature of the system, ie the energy to the northeast causing the rain in Florida, and more where the current "center" is compounds some of the problem.

Earlier in the week some of the models were hinting at a split system (part of the energy west, part east) and that may still well happen.


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weathernet
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Re: Gulf of Mexico 96L Almost a Tropical Storm. Now a 35+ MPH Disturbance. [Re: MikeC]
      #92770 - Sat Jun 23 2012 01:15 PM

Per your 12:00pm update today, I have to concur that this appears to be an imminent upgrade by NHC following further data from recon in a couple hours. Whether to depression or storm, surface obs would indicate that winds to gale force are already occuring over a large area in the E. Gulf and at minimum will continue to do so as this system eventually impacts areas along Florida's W. Coast and/or the N. Gulf Coast. This appears to be less than tropical in its present appearance, and would seem to be a baroclinically induced or sub-tropical storm at the moment. Whether or not upper air conditions improve over its existing postion or where it may eventually re-form as time goes on, would probably dictate whether this 96L aquires more tropical characteristics.

One note of interest, though pressures are certainly falling over the E. Gulf and stations are reporting winds (or at least gusts) to near tropical storm strength, it will be interersting to see if there truly is a closed off LLC as determined by recon. Though repeated low level swirls have continued to emminate from this large system, each has seemingly become a bit stronger but has yet to co-locate with the mid level vorticity. I will be curious to see the extent of West winds found at the surface which should be required to designate this system a depression or storm. Furthermore, even if such west winds are present to allow such a designation, I would think that the extent of convection near any LLC be taken into account by NHC with regards to any upgraded designation.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Gulf of Mexico 96L Almost a Tropical Storm. Now a 35+ MPH Disturbance. [Re: weathernet]
      #92776 - Sat Jun 23 2012 02:14 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE
SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Gulf of Mexico 96L Almost a Tropical Storm. Now a 35+ MPH Disturbance. [Re: danielw]
      #92777 - Sat Jun 23 2012 02:18 PM

Maximum 1000 foot wind speed that I've seen so far. NW quadrant Inbound.

Time: 17:04:30Z
Coordinates: 26.3833N 88.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 966.3 mb (~ 28.53 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 336 meters (~ 1,102 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 1004.1 mb (~ 29.65 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 63° at 33 knots (From the ENE at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Dew Pt: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)

Minimum 1000 ft altitude sea level pressure... so far.
NE Quadrant

Time: 17:58:30Z
Coordinates: 26.5833N 87.2167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 973.3 mb (~ 28.74 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 245 meters (~ 804 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 1000.9 mb (~ 29.56 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 86° at 15 knots (From the E at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 24.0°C* (~ 75.2°F*)
Dew Pt: 24.0°C* (~ 75.2°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -

Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 02:29 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Gulf of Mexico 96L Almost a Tropical Storm. Now a 35+ MPH Disturbance. [Re: danielw]
      #92791 - Sat Jun 23 2012 03:41 PM

INVES 96L is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby.

NHC will initiate Advisories shortly. More discussion on 96L/ Debby in the Forecast Lounge and Storm Forums.

URNT12 KNHC 231927
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL962012
A. 23/18:37:40Z
B. 25 deg 54 min N
087 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 15 kt
E. 063 deg 14 nm
F. 165 deg 17 kt
G. 065 deg 73 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C / 340 m
J. 24 C / 338 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF302 01AAA INVEST OB 07
MAX FL WIND 17 KT NE QUAD 18:11:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 26 KT SW QUAD 18:52:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
PEAK SFC WND 32KTS NW QUAD AT 17:08:20Z
;


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