OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 346
Loc: Longwood, FL
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If 9 follows the forecast path, I would expect plenty of rainfall for Orlando being on the southeast side. We shall see.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
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Lets wait for that. .. more important is local... that's the fun and main concern.
Looking at the models and the position of TD9... the models are alittle too far west in the very near term. This might mean a more East Path...but it will depend on the next HH Fix in a few hours and next model runs. Most models have this near 86W by morning. I think it will be more around 85.5... not much difference..but difference it the actual turn is important for the landfall forecast in 3 days or so.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1825
Loc: Austin, Tx
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TD9 is a sprawling tropical cyclone, now directing and dominating the surface winds throughout the entire GOM, the northwest Caribbean, Florida Straits, and a slim portion east from there. This will have some impact on its ability to ramp wind speed up. In this sense, it sort of resembles a subtropical cyclone. However, as it has a chance to stay nestled in this sweet spot, with anticyclonic flow aloft and super toasty waters below, there is reason to believe that it could become a hurricane prior to landfall, and Hurricane Watches may be issued later today per .
NINE has a much better environment to work in this morning than it has had for quite a while, as Jim Cantore points out (Tweet screencap below):
Quote:
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Marknole
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: Wacissa, FL
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The continued westerly movement is in line with a poorly developed cyclone that's getting its act together. This new initialization, along with the soon-to-impact (Hermine?) mid-latitude trough should accelerate the advertised northeast movement. New convection, this developing upper-level anticyclone, bathtub water temps in the GOM and Mr. Cantore's use of the "H-word" gets me a little more concerned (Jefferson County, FL). Don't think this will be a major soaker since it will be accelerating as it treks across North Florida on Thursday.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
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Welp I was wrong.. didn't think it would get past 86W by 8am and be now only around 86.2 turning NNW. It picked up speed last night around 11mph to get around 87.5 or abouts. Weaker this stays, then more NW it will make landfall in the near term today. Should start moving N later today turn NE later tonight into Weds morning.around the ridge.
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
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99L appears to be in status quo mode today due to continued shear and dry air, so not much different than each of the last seven days. Once it turns northeastward and moves with the upper flow it should be able to organize further, which is what models are showing.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1825
Loc: Austin, Tx
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First light over the central Pacific today
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 346
Loc: Longwood, FL
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From the 4:00 PM CDT Discussion on Nine:
It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system. Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the center.
As I stated in my previous post, if this does follow the forecast path, Orlando could be in for a bit of rain.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
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I guess we could say the same thing for the Tampa area...I live in Lakeland which isn't that far from Orlando. Our local stations are not saying "how" much rain; just that we'll be on the "wet side" of the storm.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Hey Colleen, how ya doing? I actually think that based on the overall synoptics, this could come in a bit further south from where they are projecting IMO. If you look at the trough and the alignment of where the showers are heading from SW to NE, they look to be heading right at the nature coast. And with the COC being SW of where it was supposed to be, it could very well be where it was forecast yesterday, closer to Cedar Key. Just my observation. Hope you are doing well - been a while!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
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This has been an interesting storm to watch...I never say never. It's weird to see Hurricane Watches up when it's not even been named. That being said....I've seen weirder things with these storms.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4110
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Nine ends the night still a Tropical Depression, although definitely better organized, with convection now on the north side. Forecast has it just under hurricane strength at landfall Thursday evening in the Big Bend. Most of the rain and weather associated with the large storm is on the east and south sides, which will bring the rain and some wind to most of Florida.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4110
Loc: Orlando, FL
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TD#9 is having large bursts of convection this morning near the ceter, it's extremely likely it'll become Hermine at the 11AM Advisory.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
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Where has Recon been... both the 530Z and 1130Z never took off???
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Still a TD at 15Z - somewhat of a surprise, but since the storm is stationary its not a big concern at the moment. NOAA Recon is scheduled to take off at 16Z (USAF resources are working Madeline in the Central Pacific) and is waiting on that flight data before upgrading TD 9.
ED
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Earlier recon was scrubbed for mechanical issues that are now fixed.
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Jim
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