MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Land disrupted the eyewall pressure jumps up to 950mb, it'll probably weaken by next advisory, and get back together over the Bahamas
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Although the didn't mention it in their discussion, it looks to me as though the track has shifted a wee bit east of where it was at 5am. Is anyone else seeing this change or did I miss something in the discussion? Thank you.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Yeah, not a lot though Colleen. Biggest thing is the winds came up from 120 to 130 offshore near my latitude. Ugh.
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gsand
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
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Agreed. Looking at interactive cone advisory #25A had the western edge west of Lakeland, #26 has it just west of Disney. Also looks like they have increased his forward speed a bit.
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Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2021 Forecast- 15/6/3
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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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Looks like the eastern eyewall took a direct hit on the 7,000' peak in Haiti. Eye completely filled in and may see some erratic movement over the next few hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rb-long.html
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2022 forecast 21/11/4; 0/0/0 as of 6/1
South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Track really didn't shift until past 3 days (toward carolina) it's just the plot points are different 6 hour intervals. It's actually on the east side of most of the model guidance right now.
Added Guantanamo Bay radar recording: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?231
The radar shows Haiti did not disrupt the storm too much, it knocked pressures up but the structure of the eye remains intact.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 461
Loc: Georgia Tech
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The last two recon vortex messages showed a 2 MB drop over that hour (from 951 to 949 MB). Matthew's motion tappears to be just a hair East of due north. (as noted in the 2PM update)
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hurricane force winds have expanded to near 60 miles from 25 miles a few days ago.
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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
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Governor Haley just announced evacuations for coastal communities in South Carolina:
http://www.wltx.com/weather/forecast/tra...gency/328935898
I'm on Hilton Head Island...Skull Creek Marina. While it's starting to look pretty hairy, I'll be lashing down S/V Meridian and getting a bug-out bag ready. We're on the NorthWest side of the island, so we're mostly protected by the island itself for any runs coming up from the South, or in from the East.
Storm surge looks worrisome...
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Anton
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"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2135
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Most recent operational run of the gold standard has shifted perilously west for Florida.
Further up the coast, this model now calls for a quirky but plausible interaction with newly-named Nicole.
From Bryan Norcross
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Bryan Norcross doesn't play around. I could not believe when I went into my volunteer job today that almost 90% of the people there did not know that this was a threat to our eastern coast of Florida and that Hurricane watches had been put up at 11:00am. I encouraged them to please pay attention and prepare themselves. I heard a lot of "the black line shows it offshore". I told them not to pay attention to the black line, pay attention to the CONE. I stopped at Winn Dixie on the way home and the lines were incredible.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
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Recon isn't finding anything remotely close to 140 mph at flight level, let alone the surface.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
This post has been removed. The posted Vortex message was of East Pacific Newton from earlier this year, and not of Matthew.
Yeah you had me almost cheering until I realized that. Either way it is filling in some, moving slower, I think up slope on the west side is disrupting it some, unfortunately I think it'll recover. I think it'll get knocked down to a 3 or even 2 out of this, but recover tomorrow. Land interactions have the habit of changing the structure of a storm, though, and that's a bit unpredictable could make for a larger size wind field or shrink it, really a wildcard.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2135
Loc: Austin, Tx
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The center of Matthew has exited Cuba, but took a bit of a scenic route and spent a little more time over land while heading a touch west of north, which has brought the intensity down a notch, but the eye is intact and restrengthening looks like the most baseline scenario overnight into tomorrow.
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 4:15Z
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 3:52:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°23'N 74°23'W (20.3833N 74.3833W)
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 91kts (~ 104.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (308°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg)
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30° to 210° (NNE to SSW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center at 3:57:00Z
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SpeedwayCocoa
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
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Jim C. just said that the eyes wall wasn't present after leaving Cuba.... So is Matthew going to to start to fall apart? Pressure is up, winds are down. Right now the news is doing there job "SELLING the NEWS" Nothing makes me more upset than to watch these news people go over the same routine over and over again.
They are still claiming Cat3 or 4 when it's off the coast of Central FL. Sounds like hooey to me. The storm doesn't have that beautiful presentation that it had 2 days ago. There will have to be a whole lot of Disney Magic to return the storm to where it was 2 days ago.
Sorry for the vent, I just hate to be SOLD the weather.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hooey? It is a strong Category 3 right now and clear of land. It is in a terrific hurricane environment over very warm waters. No reason for it to weaken any more and plenty of reason for it to strengthen. It would be a mistake to expect that it is going to weaken.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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It is still a strong category 3. Recon is almost into the storm, but yes, the eye was severely damaged by passage over Cuba. Microwave imagery also shows significant damage to the eye.
In the last couple IR frames, you can see the eye starting to reform, and on the FAA radar out of Guantanamo Bay we can clearly see the eye wrapping again.
Several hour old microwave showing the damage to the eye:
Radar image showing the eye quickly reforming:
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