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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
TD Three forms
      #68658 - Mon Jul 31 2006 09:20 PM

know you guys are trying to clean up in here so if it gets moved no problem.. but seems like last year a couple of the models did well for the first couple of days forecasting the projected path and strength of storms but long term predictions were way off. then there was one that was pretty accurate the whole time frame of the storm. which was which???

I don't recall myself, but I figured that your question probably had a better chance of getting an answer in this Forum. ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 31 2006 09:37 PM)


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
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Re: TD Three forms [Re: andy1tom]
      #68789 - Tue Aug 01 2006 02:59 PM

The GFDL did best on track last year as a whole. I don't recall any of the models particularly having a bias in the long-range forecast period, however.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: TD Three forms [Re: Clark]
      #68821 - Tue Aug 01 2006 05:27 PM

thanks... i am pretty sure there were a couple that were pretty close on the one and two days out but were not there on long term. guess that why the cone gets bigger the more days out. also does anyone have any links for info on how big a storm gets?? chris appears to be pretty compact right now.. any chance it gets bigger??

Edited by andy1tom (Tue Aug 01 2006 06:43 PM)


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Re: TD Three forms [Re: andy1tom]
      #68891 - Tue Aug 01 2006 09:58 PM

Storms tend to get bigger as they last longer and intensify. With major hurricanes, eyewall replacement cycles tend to help bring that about by reconcentrating the maximum heating with the storm outward. With weaker storms, it's largely through environmental interactions. The further north a storm gets, the larger it is likely to be, also likely a function of environmental interactions. Otherwise, there aren't many set rules on storm size; features that start out smaller (larger) tend to stay smaller (larger), but that's about it.

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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Can't remember and Can't find... [Re: Clark]
      #69075 - Wed Aug 02 2006 04:22 PM

What does "SAL" acronym mean? Thanks in advance.

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Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
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Re: Can't remember and Can't find... [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #69085 - Wed Aug 02 2006 04:40 PM

SAL is the Saharan Air Layer, usually representing a dust/sand drawn up by winds over the Sahara desert and transported westward by tropical waves and the prevailing easterly flow in the tropics.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Re: Can't remember and Can't find... [Re: Clark]
      #69086 - Wed Aug 02 2006 04:41 PM

5:00 out...little weaker, slight southward adjustment to track
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200603.disc.html

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Can't remember and Can't find... [Re: Ed in Va]
      #69094 - Wed Aug 02 2006 05:08 PM

I have been looking at a couple of the storms from the past years and I've noticed that with a lot of them, when the winds were around 50 kt the pressure was a lot lower that chris' say around 997 or 998? Could someone elaborate on that for me? It could be very possible that I am reading it wrong, but I checked out quite a few, at least from '04 & '05?
I HAVE SOOO MUCH TO LEARN
Thanks,
Chris



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