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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Questions on El Nino
      #74327 - Sat Feb 24 2007 10:52 PM

Not sure if I can post this here or not, but I'll give it a shot ;-) Was anyone expecting El Nino to occur in '06
( hurricane season)?? Was this an unexpected event??? Is this something that cannot be predicted? Just curious..Always a ton of questions from me:-) Answers should probably be through PM so we don't clutter up the board:-)
Thank you guys so much for all of your help as usual!!!!

Christine

(Post moved to a better location. The short answers are: yes (but only after the season was well underway), no and no, but see the 'El Nino' post in this Forum. Additional responses are okay here.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Feb 25 2007 09:51 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
2007 Season Forecasts [Re: sara33]
      #74328 - Sun Feb 25 2007 08:44 PM

I'm a bit at odds about where to place this.

I will place it here and let ED decide if it needs to be moved.

These are links to some of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts.
http://www.benfieldgroup.com/NR/rdonlyre...castDec2007.pdf

http://www.cdera.org/cunews/news_releases/bvi/article_1798.php

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2006/dec2006/


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Questions on El Nino [Re: sara33]
      #74329 - Sun Feb 25 2007 11:11 PM

This year a neutral to a moderate la nina will be in place come this hurricane season.Everything is pointing towards a busy season number wise but there is still alot of factors that will remain unknow for the next couple of months.It will depend on steering currents this year whether the U.S. see's tropical activity this season.Typically when capeverde systems develope in the far eastern atlantic they have very little chance of not getting kicked out to sea..The SAL will be another factor to moniter in the next 3-4 months as it really helped in surpressing activity in 2006.

One thing to remember dont focus on numbers predicted cause even a slow season has the potential to be a deadly one.It really doesn't matter whether we have 40 systems develope in 2007 cause the ones that actually make landfall are the ones that have the greatest impact.

Edited by Hurricane29 (Sun Feb 25 2007 11:12 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Questions on El Nino [Re: Hurricane29]
      #74332 - Tue Feb 27 2007 07:07 PM

I received this press release today from NOAA about la nina:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - February 27, 2007

*** NEWS FROM NOAA ***
NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, DC

LA NIŅA MAY SOON ARRIVE

On the heels of El Niņo, its opposite, La Niņa may soon arrive.

In a weekly update, scientists at NOAA's Climate
Prediction Center noted that as the 2006-2007 El
Niņo faded, surface and subsurface ocean
temperatures have rapidly decreased. Recently,
cooler-than-normal water temperatures have
developed at the surface in the east-central
equatorial Pacific, indicating a possible transition to La Niņa conditions.
Typically, during the U.S. spring and summer
months, La Niņa conditions do not significantly
impact overall inland temperature and
precipitation patterns, however, La Niņa episodes
often do have an effect on Atlantic and Pacific hurricane activity.

"Although other scientific factors affect the
frequency of hurricanes, there tends to be a
greater-than-normal number of Atlantic hurricanes
and fewer-than-normal number of eastern Pacific
hurricanes during La Niņa events," said retired
Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D.,
under secretary of commerce for oceans and
atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "During the
winter, usual La Niņa impacts include drier and
warmer-than-average conditions over the southern United States.

"NOAA's ability to detect and monitor
the formation, duration and strength of El Niņo
and La Niņa events is enhanced by continuous
improvements in satellite and buoy observations
in the equatorial Pacific," Lautenbacher added.
"These observing systems include the TAO/TRITON
moored and Argo drift buoys, as well as NOAA's polar orbiting satellites."

La Niņa conditions occur when ocean surface
temperatures in the central and east-central
equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal.
These changes affect tropical rainfall patterns
and atmospheric winds over the Pacific Ocean,
which influence the patterns of rainfall and
temperatures in many areas worldwide.

"La Niņa events sometimes follow on the heels of
El Niņo conditions," said Dr. Vernon Kousky,
research meteorologist at NOAA's Climate
Prediction Center. "It is a naturally occurring
phenomenon that can last up to three years. La
Niņa episodes tend to develop during March-June,
reach peak intensity during December-February,
and then weaken during the following March-May."

"The last lengthy La Niņa event was 1998-2001,
which contributed to serious drought conditions
in many sections of the western U.S.," said
Douglas Lecomte, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center drought specialist.
NOAA will issue the U.S. Spring Outlook on March
15, and its Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook in
May. Both outlooks will reflect the most current La Niņa forecast.
"While the status of El Niņo/La Niņa is of vital
importance to our seasonal forecasts, it is but
one measure we use when making actual temperature
and precipitation forecasts," said Kousky.
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department,
is celebrating 200 years of science and service
to the nation. From the establishment of the
Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson
to the formation of the Weather Bureau and the
Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the 1870s,
much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA.
NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security
and national safety through the prediction and
research of weather and climate-related events
and information service delivery for
transportation, and by providing environmental
stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine
resources. Through the emerging Global Earth
Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is
working with its federal partners, more than 60
countries and the European Commission to develop
a global monitoring network that is as integrated
as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

- 30 -

On the Web:
Weekly Updates & Diagnostic Discussions
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
Climate Prediction Center's ENSO Page
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Naples, FL.
Re: 2006/2007 [Re: sara33]
      #74346 - Fri Mar 09 2007 12:15 AM

What can we expect SSTs(Sea Surface Temperature's) to do in the coming months? NOAA's SST forecast for the peak months of hurricane season (August, September, and October) projects a continuation of the above-normal SSTs at about 0.5 ēC above normal. This is a lot of extra energy to fuel intense hurricanes, but not nearly as extreme as the 1-2 ēC above normal SSTs observed in 2005. While it is impossible to predict what the trade winds might do over the next few months, a sustained weakening of the trade winds for many months is an event that is unlikely.

The next key question is--what will the steering pattern be for 2007? Will there be a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that recurves storms out to sea, as happened in 2006? Or, will a ridge of high pressure set up, steering hurricanes into the Caribbean, Florida, and U.S. Gulf coast, as happened in 2004 and 2005?
A lot of uncertainties at this current time but we know one thing for sure, La Nina is back ...
It will be an interesting season to say the least!

(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum. Note that the questions that you ask would be difficult for even a seasoned meteorologist to answer with any degree of accuracy. Final pattern development is still a few months away.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Mar 09 2007 05:49 PM)


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: 2006/2007 [Re: Bee-Beep]
      #74347 - Sat Mar 10 2007 08:49 PM

There are certain wintertime weather patterns across North America and the North Atlantic Ocean that have been shown to have some impact on tropical cyclone tracks and formation regions in the summer and fall months, but oftentimes these are based on seasonal activity (rather than specific weather patterns) and only account for about 20-30% of the variability in storm formation and movement at best.

Unfortunately, the best answer is probably thus the one that Ed gave in his edit to your post -- it's pretty early to speculate on weather patterns and storm tracks this far out. That may not stop the media from looking at where the Bermuda High may set up in April and put out some articles saying the East coast is under the gun, but the articles don't really tell you anything but they aren't really correct. The East coast is always under the gun and the location of the Bermuda High in April has a very small impact on one storm's track in July-September.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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