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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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Robert
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Loc: Southeast, FL
Area Around the Bahamas
      #100013 - Tue Aug 20 2019 03:40 PM

Tropical wave with a decent mid level circulation swirl just east of Andros island, convection flared up well last night, and expect more tonight.

Edited by Robert (Tue Aug 20 2019 03:40 PM)

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Robert
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Area Around the Bahamas [Re: Robert]
      #100014 - Tue Aug 20 2019 08:33 PM

Thunder storms blowing up around a small just north east coast of Cuba moving ESE towards Haiti in the system, A system moving with the shear can strengthen, also some model support for a frontal like boundary. north of the Bahamas later in the week NOGAPS 500hpa could be the formation of a system.




Edited by Robert (Tue Aug 20 2019 08:39 PM)

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Robert
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Area Around the Bahamas [Re: Robert]
      #100017 - Tue Aug 20 2019 08:36 PM Attachment (685 downloads)

Bahamas low

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Robert
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Area Around the Bahamas [Re: Robert]
      #100022 - Tue Aug 20 2019 10:32 PM Attachment (686 downloads)

Attached latest IR image

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Robert
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Area Around the Bahamas [Re: Robert]
      #100025 - Tue Aug 20 2019 10:40 PM Attachment (684 downloads)

Attached latest IR AVN

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Robert
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Area Around the Bahamas [Re: Robert]
      #100030 - Wed Aug 21 2019 06:12 PM

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia.

1. An area of disturbed weather extends over the Central and Northwest
Bahamas and the adjacent waters. Some slow development of this
system is possible over the next several days as it moves toward the
Florida peninsula and then the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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Robert
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Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Area Around the Bahamas [Re: Robert]
      #100037 - Thu Aug 22 2019 11:20 AM Attachment (689 downloads)

LLC near Andros sheared, with mid level south east about 150 miles, slowly moving Northwest. still expect slow development by weekend.

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Robert
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Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Area Around the Bahamas [Re: Robert]
      #100039 - Thu Aug 22 2019 05:41 PM Attachment (652 downloads)

Looking better again this afternoon, seems to be the norm every day, looking for the convection to last through sun up, noticed the thunderstorms yesterday near Jacksonville were east shearing blowing tops west, and west shear blowing tops east over the system, and this morning they started east shear blowing west in the direction of travel.

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