MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4812
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Depression One has formed northeast of the Bahamas, and tropical storm watches are now up from Surf City to Duck in North Carolina.
It's mid may, and although it is the official start of hurricane season in the East Pacific (may 15th) sometimes we get preseason systems in May in the Atlantic (which starts on June 1st).
A special tropical weather outlook was issued for a system that may begin forming late this week northeast of the Bahamas. Although it isn't expected to directly affect land areas, those in Bermuda may want to keep watch on it.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 956
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The model page has all current model runs indicating development this coming weekend/early next week. Whether it is sub-tropical or purely tropical will remain to be seen.
I did see an article that stated that the East Pacific sea surface was beginning to cool which, if I recall correctly, could mean an above normal Atlantic season.
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Michael
PWS
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 547
Loc: Cape Coral & Margate, FL
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Down here in S FL we need the rain, so no complaints with a tropical wave moving thru. Would just prefer it do this during the week and not the weekend however.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 468
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Looks like first advisory will be at 5pm EDT.
Trivia: this will be the sixth year in a row that the Atlantic will have had a tropical system form before June first.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD Student
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 411
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Looking beyond Invest 91-L for any areas with "upstream" potential for development to our south early in the season, NWS Melbourne mentioned in extended discussion:
GFS guid continues to indicate modest onshore winds from the ATLC with a deepening Caribbean gyre centered near the Yucatan. EC is not quite into the height fall trend to the south.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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