Midnight EDT 20 June Update
Claudette is moving throw Alabama tonight dropping Incredible amounts of flooding rain in the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Fort Payne areas in Alabama and Dalton in Georgia, it will likely move over Georgia and South Carolina before exiting into the Atlantic. Because of the alignment, its gotten slightly more organized (not necessarily stronger) at least for rain impacts, as it continues to pour. Those who may see Flooding Rain include extreme southeastern Tennessee, Northern Georgia, and along the NC/SC line through to the outer banks. The amount of rain in some of the bands could create flash flooding in some areas. Those in the areas with the heavy bands, please do not underestimate Claudette.
Earlier some of the strongest winds gusts were felt along coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle, including an 81mph gust recorded at the Pensacola airport. The system was winding up quickly at landfall, and is why it seemed to get a name over land.
8AM EDT 18 June Update
Tropical Storm Claudette has formed just offshore of Louisiana this morning and the majority of rain and weather in impacting points east, particularly in Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle where a few tornadoes have been seen, as well as bands of very heavy rain to the east of the Center.
8AM EDT 17 June Update
92L in the Gulf is up to 90% chance for development, advisories may begin later today, although it still remains very broad and spread out and not terribly organized at the moment. Again, most of the rain is well east of the center on the s map, and streaming over Florida again today, if it does develop, the convection and rain will still be mostly, if not almost all on the east side and stretch into the Panhandle. Strong wind likely won't be much of a problem with this one.
Beyond that it, along with a front will make for a rainy week in most of the Southeastern US.
8AM EDT 16 June Update
Tropical Storm Bill no longer exists and the system in the east Atlantic 94L missed its chance to develop, however 92L In the Gulf if now up to a 90% chance to develop as it tries to slowly get its act together in the Southwestern Gulf.
92L is very broad with energy in the southern Bay of Campeche all the way to the North tip of the Yucatan, the shearing is pushing much of the rain to the east, so if it does develop or not depends on how much one are consolidates or not. If it does develop it will likely stay weak and the rain will still be very easy heavy, assuming the center went into Louisiana, the heaviest rain/squalls may still be well east of that, into Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle. Even before this the shearing will greatly enhance the rain over much of Florida again today and the general area of this storm likely won't move much today or tomorrow until the evening.
8AM EDT 15 June Update
Tropical Storm Bill is moving away from land quite rapidly in the North Atlantic, and the area in the southwestern Gulf is now at a 70% chance for development over the next 5 days or so.
The Gulf system (92L) is likely to remain weak, with most of the rain well to the east of the center, it may bring some minor surge along the northern Gulf coast and a lot of rain, but it's worth watching for those in the area. Some of the first bands should reach parts of Louisiana on Friday morning but the center likely won't arrive until Saturday morning, those around the center point of landfall may not notice much since the majority of the convection is sheared to the east. The majority of the weather associated with this system will likely be east, with a lot of moisture streaming into those areas. The west side of the system likely won't see much at all. There may be short lived weaker tornadoes associated with this system, especially east of the system, all the way into the Western Florida Panhandle.
The other area in the Eastern Atlantic (94L) has a 10% chance to develop, and probably will remain low chance. (It's June)
10AM EDT 14 June Update
The National Hurricane Center will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located offshore of the coast of North Carolina and moving away from the United States, at 1100 AM EDT
8AM EDT June 14 2021 Update
3 Areas in June is unusual, however, there is Invest 93L off the Carolina coast that ramped up quickly overnight and now has a 70% chance to develop as it it moves away from land. It seems likely to develop into a short lived subtropical or tropical System, and could become Bill later today.
92L, the area in the Bay of Campeche, has a 60% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and has the potential to organize and cause a large rain event in the north Gulf coast, particularly east of where the center would eventually cross.
The area in the far east Atlantic, is much less likely to develop, but the potential is still there, at 20% over the next 5 days.
Original Update
The area in the Bay of Campeche along the southwestern Gulf of Mexico now has a 40% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours. It's likely going to be mostly a rain event. With the overall pattern and the winds at higher levels in the atmosphere, if anything develops, it likely would be a sheared system with most of rain and convection to right of the center. Still worth watching for those along the northern Gulf coast for late this coming week into next weekend.
For those in Mexico, it will bring a lot of rain as it tries to consolidate.
Currently there is no invest area for this system. The forecast lounge is discussing the longer range models on it.
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