MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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2:00PM EDT Update 27 September 2022 Update
Ian continues strengthening and veering to the right (east) in response. This trend looks to continue, and those within the southern portion of the cone and even outside of the cone to the south should prepare for the increasing possibility of Ian coming in further south and at a higher intensity than many earlier model runs and model consensus aids.
Comparisons to are understandable, but misleading. These are two very different storms. was a highly compact, small Cat 4 hurricane, or if you like a very wide tornado. Ian is a different beast. Also likely to be a Cat 4 at some point before landfall, increasing odds of going Cat 5 if there is enough time, and larger, with time over the water to generate a very large fetch of surge over a wide area, in addition to howling major hurricane winds mostly within miles from the center, within the eyewall, and then "only" high-end Tropical Storm to Cat 1/2 winds up to many tens of miles from the center. Maybe think of blending with Ike, or in some ways, blending with . Pray that the landfall location and where the storm surge is greatest is not as sensitive a location as southeastern Louisiana.
NHC: Quote:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Bonita Beach to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwanee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Marineland to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* Flamingo to Bonita Beach
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys
* Boca Raton to Altamaha Sound
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Suwanee River
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Anclote River to Suwannee River
* South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
* South of Boca Raton to east of Flamingo
* Upper Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Marineland to Mouth of the St. Mary's River, including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Marineland...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Aucilla River...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
-Ciel
4:30AM EDT Update 27 September 2022 Update
Hurricane Ian has made its first landfall: in the Pinar Del Rio Pr of Cuba at 4:30 AM EDT, at just below Cat 4, with an estimated 125 MPH max sustained winds and a minimum central pressure of 952mb.
-Ciel
2:30AM EDT Update 27 September 2022 Update
Ian has become the second Major Hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season while on approach to landfall along western Cuba, and has been continuing to intensify heading into this landfall.
The western portion of Cuba is relatively flat without tall mountains seen in the middle of the island and weakening, if any, is likely to be brief as the cyclone tracks over what may amount to not much more than a bump in the road. Additional intensification or re-intensifcation is expected in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
-Ciel
1AM EDT Update 27 September 2022 Update
Two factors that are increasing the odds of a worse or worst case scenario for those living along the west coast of Florida have been coming into focus for the past 24 hours. Increasingly, models see a deeper trof approaching the east coast while Ian continues to rapidly strengthen and will likely soon become a Major Hurricane, if not already there as I write this.
This sets off all sorts of alarm bells for Emergency Managers and forecasters: a more intense, sizeable hurricane hooking right sooner rather than later with less time to weaken, and possibly even additional favorable atmospheric conditions heading up to or even into landfall.
To make matters even more dangerous, Ian may have window of slow to very slow forward motion, potentially raking vulnerable coast with otherwordly wind and storm surge, for hours on end, and dumping equator-like torrential rains over the same locations and points inland, for hours on end.
While we avoid hype here, there is no sugar coating that at this time it is with high confidence that those living along the west coast from the Keys to the Big Bend should be preparing as fast as possible for the worst while hoping for the best, as track is likely to continue to be in flux, but wherever Ian goes at this point, it is more likely than not to end up being horrible, more horrible, or most horrible. And this is not limited to those right along the coast where record storm surge is a real possibility. Those inland along the cyclone's track can expect damaging wind gusts, long-duration power outages, and the potential for up to feet or even several feet of rain with attendant potentially life-threatening inland flooding. Tropical waterspouts and tornadoes, also.
For in-depth model analysis and a place for more speculative discussions, join us in the Ian Forecast Lounge
-Ciel
5PM EDT Update 26 September 2022 Update
Hurricane ian is now a category 2 hurricane and forecast to be a major hurricane when it nears Tampa Wednesday afternoon. The track landfall takes place near Crystal River, but the eastern eyewall rakes Tampa bay and points north. Which is a very dangerous surge situation. If you live in an evacuation zone in the western counties, please take their advice. This is an extremely dangerous situation there.
The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has
been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood.
The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including
Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane
Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to
Indian Pass, and on the eatst coast of Florida from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound.
Please stay in touch with local officials and media for the best information for your area. We at flhurricane are affected too and updates may be less frequent.
Original Update
Ian is now a hurricane, and Hurricane Watches are now up for the West coast of Florida from Englewood north to the Anclote River, Including all of the Tampa Bay area.
Ian in an environment that should allow it to rapidly become a major hurricane and move over the Western portion of Cuba, which may disrupt it some, but won't be over it long, so the forecast is it to be a major Hurricane very near offshore Tampa. Slight deviations right would bring it onshore of West Central Florida. It will be near enough to cause some surge issues in parts of the West coast, and close enough that any right deviation would send the eye onshore, so evacuations of certain areas along the west coast are likely today. Please consult local media and officials for the latest information there.
Florida Emergency Management
News Media (South Florida):
Television:
Newspapers:
News Radio:
Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.
News Media (East Central Florida):
Television:
Newspapers:
News Radio:
Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Sep 27 2022 03:02 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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This is turning into a worst case scenario for the Tampa Bay region. Now expecting a very extended period of strong winds and storm surge due to Ian expected to be moving very slowly near the coast.
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Michael
PWS
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 456
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Am I seeing properly that the latest run of the Euro has shifted a little left?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Surge estimate for Tampa bay are now at 5-10ft.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 392
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
Am I seeing properly that the latest run of the Euro has shifted a little left?
Levi was talking about his at Tropical Tidbits...they Euro and seem to have switched with more to the right of the cone while the Euro is on the left now...very odd.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Radar and camera recordings for Ian will show up here as added
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Ian+%282022%29
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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