cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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A favorable environment for tropical cyclone development in the W Atlantic is largely forecast to continue behind 01L (likely to become Alberto), and a preponderance of reliable models also forecast yet more development in this region, this time during the June 22-27 range. Given the strength of the signal and what appears to be continued obvious favorable conditions, we are starting a Lounge at this time on this prognosticated system.
NHC has issued an opener of 20% development odds within 7 days for this region.
Here are some model development potential snapshots from
18z today:
GFS 1005mb closed low/possible TD in the Bay of Campeche by Sunday morning June 23rd
ICON weak closed and elongated low in the Bay of Campeche by midday Saturday June 22nd
12z today:
GFS Just barely closed or almost closed 1003mb low of tropical storm wind intensity in the NW Carib by midday Friday June 21st, tracking wnw
UK Broad and elongated low, possibly closed, in the southern Bay of Campeche or just inland by Saturday morning June 22nd
GDPS ("Canadian") 1006mb closed low/possible TD by Sunday morning June 23rd in the Bay of Campeche
ECMWF-AI 1009mb closed low/possible TD by Sunday morning June 23rd in the Bay of Campeche
ECMWF 1007mb closed low/possible TD by Saturday morning June 22nd in the Bay of Campeche.
ECMWF EPS 14-km Ensemble implied TC genesis probability in the Bay of Campeche from late this week into early next: 65%
In subsequent updates we can dig down into what all these models are exactly seeing and foreseeing.
This system has been Invest tagged tonight, June 21, and the title has been updated accordingly.
-Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 20 2024 02:41 PM)
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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The developing low pressure that has largely been over and either side of the Yucatan is now in the Bay of Campeche, and has been invest tagged tonight, 93L. has actually pulled back their odds of development a little bit, down to 50% from 60%, which seems reasonable given that the environment for development does not appear as conducive for 93L as it was for 91L that went on to become Tropical Storm Alberto.
Movement is forecast to be west-northwestward or northwestward, which would spread weather over a wide area in eastern Mexico and parts of south Texas, both of which are still dealing with impacts from Alberto.
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