cieldumort
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2PM EDT 11 August 2024 Update
The area east of the Caribbean Islands is up to a 90% chance to develop and 80% within the next 48 hours, so it's likely that this will form later tonight or tomorrow and approach the Leeward islands of the Caribbean. Those in the Islands should monitor it closely. Beyond this it's most likely to stay east of the Bahamas and US mainland, but could impact Bermuda. Those in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Turks and Caicos and Bermuda should watch this system closely.
7AM EDT 07 August 2024 Update
Tropical Storm Debby is much weaker, but still offshore this morning of South Carolina, after injecting quite a bit of dry air into the center. There is still rainfall from the outer bands of the system reaching as far south as St. Augustine north to Eastern North Carolina, but much less concentrated that before. Debby will likely maintain or slightly strengthen where it is at currently until the forecast landfall sometime tomorrow morning. The strongest winds are on the southeast side over the water currently.
Flooding rains will still be an issue in a few areas.
The other area being watched is losing its chances to develop and now only has a 10% chance to develop.
7AM EDT 06 August 2024 Update
Tropical Storm Debby is in southeastern Georgia just west of Savannah and is expected to move offshore this morning after landfalling at Steinhatchee, FL as a category 1 Hurricane at 7AM August 5th, It has been weakening since, and most of the rain is now on the northeastern quadrant. and reaching well into South Carolina bringing flooding rainfall. A few tail bands still extend well to the south.
Debby is forecast to exit land this morning near Savannah and emerge into the Atlantic waters for a day or so, stop and then landfall again along the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, possibly a little stronger than now and drift north inland bringing more rainfall inland.
Another wave has a 30% chance to develop in the Caribbean, but has some hurdles for doing so.
11PM EDT 04 August 2024 Update
Debby has become a hurricane, the second hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Despite a limited runway of water before landfall, the internal structure of the cyclone continues to improve tonight, and it is still very possible for a strong Cat 1-2 at landfall. Regardless, Debby remains a large and very dangerous tropical cyclone with unusually high potential to produce catastrophic inland flooding and long-lasting surge.
11AM EDT 04 August 2024 Update
Rapid Intensification is now the official forecast heading into landfall, and there is even some possibility that Debby Majors. In addition to these strong hurricane-force winds, dangerous surge, tornadoes and extreme flooding are likely.
Preps to protect life and property should be hurried to completion at this time.
7:30AM EDT 04 August 2024 Update
Up to 60mph winds at 8am.
Tropical Storm Debby is slowly strengthening, from a rather broad/sloppy area and is now a 50mph Tropical Storm west of Florida. Bands of rain are moving in along southwest Florida, and with the system trying to consolidate the rain will be delayed in other parts of Florida until later today.
Landfall is expected to be tomorrow afternoon along the Big Bend as a 85mph hurricane with surge up to 10 feet in some areas there, then move slowly across Florida and Georgia toward the Atlantic and be near Savannah and around the South Carolina Lowcountry by Wednesday into Thursday causing a lot of flooding rain and surge along there.
5:00PM EDT 03 August 2024 Update
Tropical Storm Debby has formed with 40mph winds north of Cuba. A hurricane is now forecast before landfall in the Big Bend.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, and for the Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown.
7:45AM EDT 03 August 2024 Update
Hurricane Watches are now up from from Aucilla River just east of St. Marks, FL to Yankeetown, Florida South of Cedar Key as there exists potential for the system to reach hurricane strength before landfall. Tropical Depression Four is nearing the western Cuba coastline an expected cross over Cuba and Havana by early Afternoon and enter the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the rest of the west coast of Florida. The next name is Debby.
Once landfall happens it's expected to slowly move over Florida and Georgia and reemerge into the Atlantic where it could slow down greatly. Those in Southeast Georgia, and the South Carolina Lowcountry as well as eastern North Carolina should be watching this very closely as this system may be near/over you for several days according to the forecast, and if it stalls over water the potential is there for it to restrengthen.
11PM EDT 02 August 2024 Update
Tropical Depression Four has formed south of Cuba, with Tropical Storm watches and warnings up for parts of the Keys and West coast of Florida currently. The hurricane center calls out in the official discussion that it's possible for a hurricane to form before landfall, if the system maintains itself slightly more than expected. However the current forecast calls for just shy of hurricane with 70mph winds before landfall somewhere in the cone region. Those in the cone need to monitor this closely.
8PM EDT 02 August 2024 Update
It is becoming apparent that development may be starting off the southern coast of Cuba.
Throughout the day, the system overall has been tugged between competing lobes along its wave axis that crosses the island nation from south to north, with its mean center being tracked by . Increasingly, it appears that the aid of a richer, more unobstructed moist inflow from the south and west is benefiting the southern lobe, and unless this gives up the ghost, merges, or loops around cyclonically to the north, genesis may happen there. This would likely shift the forecast track to the left and increase the odds of a system with more time over very warm water, and may even increase the risk of a crawl or stall prior to or just around the time of landfall.
It is important to keep in mind that forecasting the track and intensity of a potential tropical cyclone is often less reliable than forecasting a bona fide cyclone, and those with interests to the left of the recent cones may want to begin paying much more attention.
Original Update
Advisories have begun for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. Keep in mind, this is the first of many, and could be taken with a grain of salt. While modeling has come together much more with a forecast that cuts across the Florida peninsula and lands back over water along the southeast coast, these model runs are made on a system that 1. Has not yet formed (The P in PTC FOUR does stand for Potential) and 2. Has yet to have had the benefit of recon missions and 3. Is being made for a system still largely over land (Cuba now).
At present, does have a forecast out that is nonetheless of relative confidence. KEY MESSAGES are as follows: Quote:
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of Florida over the weekend.
4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.
For some deeper model talk as well as speculation as to where exactly FOUR will form and will be going, join us in the Debby Forecast Lounge
And for more official links
Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 11 2024 04:17 PM)
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CFHC
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Recon flying around now.
Certainly appears the area just off the south side of Cuba is the one gaining here.
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MikeC
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This pass shows Debby's pretty well organized for a TS
If it can maintain this it's likely to strengthen as forecast.
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MikeC
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NOAA Coastal Tides and currents map, will be handy during Debby
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/cidstorm.html?stormname=Debby
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cieldumort
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Finally some recon missions that will penetrate are underway and help resolve some of the questions, such as just how well organized Debby is. Based on conventional and microwave satellite, the tropical cyclone truly appears much better organized than just 24 hours ago, and has completed merging both of the previously competing lobes into one rather large TC.
Given the low shear, high SSTs, healthy outflow environment, about the only thing that might obviously now prevent more rapid intensification seems to be Debby's relatively large size, still reminiscent of its parent gyre. Strong H1/2 certainly looks very possible prior to landfall, and potentially even stronger should more substantial slowing or even stalling start to occur before reaching the Florida coast.
Nightmarish flood risk as a large and wet Category Slow, regardless.
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MikeC
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recon finding 1001mb pressure, slowly but steadily organizing. It should take quite a while to do so.
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MikeC
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11pm calls out the 1/3 chance for Rapid intensification in the Gulf before landfall, which is why the 11pm forecast went up to 85mph before landfall.
below for detail on this
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MikeC
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Those in Tallahassee should be mindful that Debby could intensify rapidly just before landfall, don't get caught off guard.
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Marknole
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Loc: Wacissa, FL
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Quote:
Those in Tallahassee should be mindful that Debby could intensify rapidly just before landfall, don't get caught off guard.
The 2pm intermediate advisory now specifically calls for rapid intensification prior to landfall. Living just east of Tallahassee and south of I-10, we're bugging out tonight.
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Bill_hawe
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Calling it a ' Strong' Hurricane is unnerving.
Are we talking still int he Probability Corridor of High Trop Storm, low Cat I? or are we now talking into the ' Major' Status that the Terminology would usualy indicate?
I ask because the window to evacuate is closing rapidly and I would rather only move ( currently in Tallahassee Proper) If the probabilty that this could be as bad as Idalia, or the like was signifigant.
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Kraig
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Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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Quote:
Calling it a ' Strong' Hurricane is unnerving.
Are we talking still int he Probability Corridor of High Trop Storm, low Cat I? or are we now talking into the ' Major' Status that the Terminology would usualy indicate?
I ask because the window to evacuate is closing rapidly and I would rather only move ( currently in Tallahassee Proper) If the probabilty that this could be as bad as Idalia, or the like was signifigant.
Per the 5pm discussion, currently has it offshore at 2am with 85mph sustained and 105mph gusts and "given the favorable oceanic and shear
conditions, significant strengthening is expected before landfall. Rapid intensification is especially likely if Debby acquires a
well-defined inner core."
* A strengthening system poses more threats than a weakening system like Idalia. Idalia, while the classified as a major cat 3 at landfall, did not register surface winds above TS force at or after landfall.
* Tally is inland and on the weak side of the proposed track, From my recollection, Tally did not receive any severe weather with Idalia.
* If you have the basic prep (water, nonperishable food, in a house not a trailer, etc) stay in your home and off the roads....good luck!
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MikeC
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Interesting double blowup on satellite this evening, seems to have dragged the center eastward on radar too, haven't really noticed any northward motion in the past hour.
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MikeC
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Nearly at landfall near Steinhatchee, not far from where Idalia made landfall last year.
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MikeC
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Debby's dry air injection has stopped, but it still has a lot trapped within it, rain and convection will gradually pick up now that it's back over water, although the bands are limited, it is going over areas that have already had tons of rain, so the flooding in portions in SC/NA/GA will continue. With the now very large center fully wrapped in convection again, rain may expand out to the south more as well, some is getting back into Northern Florida. However the expansion will be limited, and drop off again once the center goes back over land.
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MikeC
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ptc5 advisories at 5pm.
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