MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4636
Loc: Orlando, FL
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This is the 30th year doing this..
Open until June 1st, 2025
My guess 19/10/3
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Ken S.
Registered User
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Congratulations on 30 years. I've been following you since the 04 season to remember.
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bob3d
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Pasco County, Florida
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The Atlantic is cooler than average this year by 2 degrees, but that won't affect the number of tropical systems much if at all. Last year we only got one system from that region. The rest was from the Gulf and the Caribbean which I think is going to happen this year too. Prediction: 20 named storms.
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bob
Time in West Central Florida: 51 years
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Prospero
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Gulfport, FL
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I signed up on Fri Oct 08 2004 10:50 PM. That was after and Jeanne, and I guess it was when Tropical Storm Matthew was spinning in the Gulf.
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Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 373
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Quote:
The Atlantic is cooler than average this year by 2 degrees, but that won't affect the number of tropical systems much if at all. Last year we only got one system from that region. The rest was from the Gulf and the Caribbean which I think is going to happen this year too. Prediction: 20 named storms.
While 20 may be a little above what I'll say (thinking 16-17 ATM), I'm in TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH with western Caribbean and GOMEX being the where the bulk of TC's ultimately develop. That's not to say that the Atlantic won't sow some impressive long-lived waves that search for favorable environmental conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. Check out today's 12Z run that suggests around May 20 a strong pre-season TC will come up from the south, cross Cuba into the Bahamas:
GFS
Last several runs have been consistent with this thought. We'll see...
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Mon May 05 2025 02:17 PM)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 373
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Mike, I always look at your open before posting my guess. I'll undercut you a bit by two on named and one for 'canes, then up the ante on majors:
17/9/4
Furthermore, I'll stick my neck out and call for the second consecutive season with more than one achieving Category 5 because of the recent history of "sweet spot" rapid intensification.
Edited by IsoFlame (Mon May 05 2025 02:25 PM)
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