MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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This is the 30th year doing this..
Open until June 1st, 2025
My guess 19/10/3
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Ken S.
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Congratulations on 30 years. I've been following you since the 04 season to remember.
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bob3d
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Pasco County, Florida
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The Atlantic is cooler than average this year by 2 degrees, but that won't affect the number of tropical systems much if at all. Last year we only got one system from that region. The rest was from the Gulf and the Caribbean which I think is going to happen this year too. Prediction: 20 named storms.
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bob
Time in West Central Florida: 51 years
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Prospero
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Gulfport, FL
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I signed up on Fri Oct 08 2004 10:50 PM. That was after and Jeanne, and I guess it was when Tropical Storm Matthew was spinning in the Gulf.
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Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Quote:
The Atlantic is cooler than average this year by 2 degrees, but that won't affect the number of tropical systems much if at all. Last year we only got one system from that region. The rest was from the Gulf and the Caribbean which I think is going to happen this year too. Prediction: 20 named storms.
While 20 may be a little above what I'll say (thinking 16-17 ATM), I'm in TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH with western Caribbean and GOMEX being the where the bulk of TC's ultimately develop. That's not to say that the Atlantic won't sow some impressive long-lived waves that search for favorable environmental conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. Check out today's 12Z run that suggests around May 20 a strong pre-season TC will come up from the south, cross Cuba into the Bahamas:
GFS
Last several runs have been consistent with this thought. We'll see...
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Mon May 05 2025 02:17 PM)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Mike, I always look at your open before posting my guess. I'll undercut you a bit by two on named and one for 'canes, then up the ante on majors:
17/9/4
Furthermore, I'll stick my neck out and call for the second consecutive season with more than one achieving Category 5 because of the recent history of "sweet spot" rapid intensification.
Edited by IsoFlame (Mon May 05 2025 02:25 PM)
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M.A.
Weather Guru
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Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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15/9/3 Odd start to the year. No 2025 storms in the northern hemisphere thru May 15th. If I recall this has only happened a handful of times. Lowered outlook due to this.
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Ken S.
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Anybody see the extended model? Looks like around 384H we have a potential storm for Tex/Mex area.
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Psyber
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Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
This is the 30th year doing this..
Open until June 1st, 2025
My guess for this year was 19/10/3
Sorry for the long addition to your post, Mike.
Has it been THAT long already this year? I still remember how, as we all started watching, the levees began to break in . But it was impossible, right? That many things couldn't fail! They'd turn up every single pump, get some excavators and patch up the broken levees. Just turn everything up to 10 out of 10, and in a couple of weeks, everything will repair itself. I didn't understand what those horrified eyes meant.
And then it sunk in and I felt the helpless dread at how N/O was going to fill all the way up like a bathtub with 38C water. People being helpless and men having to wade through water that was filled with snakes with their pregnant wives and small children on pieces of plywood so that they could manage to get some food (and booze) from any stores that were still open.
Okay. Now, something crucial had just happened: without anything, without 20-30 feet of what we all now know as storm surge. Although we may not have known as well before, (Or it wasn't respected or understood at the time of being so deadly). Places like Gulfport, Mississippi, had essentially disappeared from the map to a degree that they still haven't fully recovered. Just flat concrete pads that had houses on them are still just the pads if the property is too close to the coast.
However, I like to think that we help people who need assistance...from helping someone find a safe Motel 8 all the way to guiding them to another place more suitable for them, such as a shelter or kitchen to help the needy. Perhaps save people's lives with some of our forecasts by offering them alternatives to standing in the wrong place versus moving to safer and higher ground, or perhaps helping people with dead cellphones help get them charged.. I remember people who were so panicked, who couldn't even think about where to go, versus just sitting down in the mud.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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It's been an honor and privilege being part of our community since 2006, and a frequent visitor/lurker before that.
My preseason best guesses for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season are as follows:
18 Depressions 17 Storms 9 Hurricanes 5 Majors 195 ACE
Most likely range: 16-20 Depressions, 15-20 Storms, 8-10 Hurricanes, 4-6 Majors and 175-215 ACE
It appears to me that there is greater risk of an upside surprise than downside surprise to these preseason best guesses. Regardless, it also seems more likely than not that landfalls will occur close to if not on the , with probably a 75% or greater chance of at least one hurricane landfall this year and at least 60% or greater chance of at least one Major landfall this year.
My initial bid for 2025: 17 Storms, 9 Hurricanes and 5 Majors
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