cieldumort
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Have started a thread just for the BOC Area of Interest over in The Tropics Today: W Gulf this weekend .
now up to 30% if/once the disturbance has moved into the Bay of Campeche.
In order to realize its potential, the disturbance would have to spend enough time over the water and within what looks to be a rather small corridor of lower shear. No Invest tag yet, but will consider inclusion to the Forecast Lounge if these preconditions look to be coming together.
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MikeC
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Multiple models showing something next weekend around the southeast, mostly offf the Southeast, but the is pushing for something in the Gulf near the Panhandle over the energy going off the southeast where most of the other models have it developing, including hte , Icon, and Euro and the google deepmind model has a large spread here also.
Nothing stronger than a weak TS in any of these though.
Image frame targeting sunday morning next week
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MikeC
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18z went a bit wild, but doesn't have much support elsewhere
This is very unlikely, however it does show the heat content in that part of the Gulf (which is very hot right now)
12z Euro keeps it weak and moves it off the southeast (icon does also)
Euro ensembles are mostly off the southeast coast, where ensembles have it more in the northwast Gulf. It's looking more likely there may be something to watch for on the holiday weekend. Note, before this it means it's likely to be HEAVY ranfall over much of Central and North FLorida later in the week, regardless of development.
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MikeC
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Overnight model runs have backed off on development, but the general area of heavy rain remain.
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