cieldumort
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Have started a thread just for the BOC Area of Interest over in The Tropics Today: W Gulf this weekend .
now up to 30% if/once the disturbance has moved into the Bay of Campeche.
In order to realize its potential, the disturbance would have to spend enough time over the water and within what looks to be a rather small corridor of lower shear. No Invest tag yet, but will consider inclusion to the Forecast Lounge if these preconditions look to be coming together.
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MikeC
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Multiple models showing something next weekend around the southeast, mostly offf the Southeast, but the is pushing for something in the Gulf near the Panhandle over the energy going off the southeast where most of the other models have it developing, including hte , Icon, and Euro and the google deepmind model has a large spread here also.
Nothing stronger than a weak TS in any of these though.
Image frame targeting sunday morning next week
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MikeC
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18z went a bit wild, but doesn't have much support elsewhere
This is very unlikely, however it does show the heat content in that part of the Gulf (which is very hot right now)
12z Euro keeps it weak and moves it off the southeast (icon does also)
Euro ensembles are mostly off the southeast coast, where ensembles have it more in the northwast Gulf. It's looking more likely there may be something to watch for on the holiday weekend. Note, before this it means it's likely to be HEAVY ranfall over much of Central and North FLorida later in the week, regardless of development.
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MikeC
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Overnight model runs have backed off on development, but the general area of heavy rain remain.
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MikeC
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Beyond Chantal, the next hotspot may be the northeast Gulf in a week or so, but again, unlikely to develop much. (But Chantal was also unlikely)
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CFHC
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12z Euro is surprisingly strong with vorticity on the Gulf area, over the which isn't.
matches
Edited by MikeC (Tue Jul 08 2025 08:09 PM)
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MikeC
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Overnight models backed off on this one, except for the .
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MikeC
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The Gulf area mentioned in the models is interesting, a lot of mixed signals, but enough to make it worth watching into next week, again another case where the models are having a hard time consolidating on anything. It'll likely be something that slips off the atlantic then goes back into the Gulf and it may sit around enough to develop. Ensembles pick it up better than the operational models right now.
Effectively the dot cluster in this map (in a week)
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CFHC
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Less activity today on the euro, more on the
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MikeC
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a Little more activity on the ensembles this evening (both Euro and )
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