cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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MikeC
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The two current invest aren't likely going to amount to much, 90L is likely to develop, but remain weak, and 99L, although persistent, really doesn't have a great shot to develop now, but could later. Areas off the southeast coast from fronts are probably going to be the next development after it, but the next week or two are likely uncharacteristically going to be light. Mid to late September seems like the most likely time for folks to watch. Monitor closely, but nothing concerning right now.
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MikeC
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Very quiet on the long range front outside Fernand. 99L may wind up something in the east Pacific, but as it stands now, recon didn't find the LLC needed to keep it going on the Atlantic side. Turning to ensembles for peak season is pretty unusual, just a hint of a frontal low developing off the coast of Carolina and moving nne for a short-lived weak system, and maybe a wave exiting Africa on September 1st that has the odds stacked against it for development. There's nothing in a favorible location to speak of for the next two weeks or so, later half of September could have more activity, but for the moment it's thankfully very quiet in the Atlantic, other than Fernand moving safely out to sea.
Barbados and surrounding islands are getting some rain from 99L, but that's likely to move out later today. 99L itself missed its window of opportunity to develop in the Atlantic, conditions are too hostile in the Caribbean.
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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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This morning there is a vigorous surge of convection tracking WNW over the western Caribbean Sea south of Cuba that is pushing WNW toward the Yucatan peninsula.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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MikeC
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Near term, I usually look at the vorticity charts to see if convection aligns with anything for potential with tropical development at the 850 level, if it does, then you have to check closely for low levels. (99L fit the 850 well, but lacked the low level.. you need both for development.) 99L's 850 reflection has tanked since yesterday so it's not doing anything in the Atlantic. Yucatan area has no circulation/vorticity at low or mid levels. The area East of New Jersey is too elongated and also too far north, Fernand is still there
The area near the OK/Texas/New Mexico borders is the one some of the models were hooking into for frontal development in a week off NC, but that's a long shot also. EPAC is going to see most of the activity this week.
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MikeC
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0z Euro shows two MDR waves in the very long run, although the setup for them implies both will likely recurve., if they form (especially the western wave). The icon is very agressive with development right off Africa, but it's alone in that assumption. is not really on board with either.
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CFHC
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12z does develop the wave off Africa, but eventually recurves it (although it does stall and dip south a bit). 12Z Canadian develops it earlier. 12Z Euro is weaker, and stretches it out around 52west longitude. Just not a lot of support at the moment, but something to watch later.
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