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The Atlantic basin is waking up. Invest #92L is likely to become a TC within 48 hours and another wave is coming in behind it.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 341 (Milton) , Major: 341 (Milton) Florida - Any: 341 (Milton) Major: 341 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 400
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #115855 - Thu Sep 11 2025 04:49 PM

Quote:

This being the climatological peak of the season, the focus for development will begin to shift more toward the Caribbean and the Gulf. If the preseason forecasts are to be verified, a later season peak may be on tap (or not).



Given the near-record warm and untapped SST's in this portion of the Atlantic basin, that is the horse that I'd put my money on. Look at the convection in the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche that is currently firing there, all that is needed is for the CAG to position favorably south of the unusual and persistent late summer frontal boundary

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 400
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #115858 - Tue Sep 16 2025 09:29 AM

Quote:

Given the near-record warm and untapped SST's in this portion of the Atlantic basin, that is the horse that I'd put my money on. Look at the convection in the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche that is currently firing there, all that is needed is for the CAG to position favorably south of the unusual and persistent late summer frontal boundary



Above post I made 5 days ago still valid... Impressive tropical wave exiting the extreme NW Carribean Sea this morning, crossing the northern Yucatan Peninsula, headed into the Bay of Campeche later this week. Not highlighted in the 7-day, it might bear watching if it can stay clear of land, avoid shear in the GOMEX and linger over the near seasonal peak sea temps in this part of the basin.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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