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Invest #90L now up to 60% ch of development (NHC). Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings may be issued later today. Extreme rainfall and flooding, regardless.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 614 (Milton), US Major: 614 (Milton), FL Any: 614 (Milton), FL Major: 614 (Milton)

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Archives 2020s >> 2025 Forecast Lounge

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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst

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Posts: 413
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...

TC formation in the Bay of Campeche later in June
#115535 - Thu Jun 05 2025 03:14 PM

10AM Update 4 June 2025
Beyond this nothing really on the horizon, a lot of noise on the Bay of Campeche and West Caribbean, but nothing solid. Anything that may get going is most likely to wind up in the eastern Pacific

I wanted to start a new thread on this because me-gut says:

I'll place my money on the BOC in 10+ days. SST's will be cooking in the upper 80's, generally lowering pressure on the NE side of the gyre with abundant available moisture stacked through the column, and probably no Saharan dust in this far pocket of the basin with generally weak steering currents. Whatever TC occurs, it will probably drift aimlessly in the bay for a few days before landfall in Mexico. However, if there is a tug to the north by a trough, I could see Texas getting involved with a stronger TC week 3/4 in June- stay tuned...

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker

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Posts: 332
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida

Re: TC formation in the Bay of Campeche later in June [Re: IsoFlame]
#115537 - Sat Jun 07 2025 03:21 PM

Been using this site for 20 years plus. Definitely my go to for tropical weather this time of the year for me on the coast here in Brevard County. Great job to Mike and the people who run this platform for weather nerds like me. I'm going with 18-9-4. Good luck to all.

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