cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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A majority of global model runs are now latching on to the potential for a home-grown system along an old frontal boundary somewhere in the vicinity of either side of Florida later in the new week and into the July 4th weekend, and given such a strong signal this far ahead and the implications of impactful weather in the region over the holiday, we are starting a lounge on this yet still unformed system at this time.
More to come
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MikeC
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I don't think this will develop, but it will still cause a lot of rain and some localized flooding, here's the ensemble tracks. A lot rides on exactly where it consolidates, if it's over land it's not going to amount to much more than rain. Although if that occurs it's still possible for it to form off the Atlantic, but it'll be away from land at that point. Wet week in Florida mostly.
GFS Ensembles probably show the better spread, as does the google. Euro doesn't handle this situation very well (if something does form later it will however)
12 ensembles:
12z euro ensembles:
12z Google models:
turned on the long term radar recording for it though here
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CFHC
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Loc: East Central Florida
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Model support is starting to drop off considerably this afternoon
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MikeC
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12Z models dropped off considerably, but the 0z brings some back, just shifted back to the southeast again and away from the Gulf. The stronger, but the canadian and euro show it as well. Ensembles still not too active. The Euro has two areas off the Southeast in a week, weak one close to the Southeast coast and a stronger one near Bermuda.
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MikeC
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The 06Z run on the shows a weak area off the Southeast, a weaker area in the Gulf, and a barly stronger one developing close to Bermuda Sun-Monday.
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MikeC
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General concentration of models have shifted east, with the euro and also picking up on something near Bermuda. The broad nature of the front means it may (and probably will) change again later.
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CFHC
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Loc: East Central Florida
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Euro side, afternoon ensembles jumped up quite a bit
GFS Not as much, but almost all on the Southeast US side.
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MikeC
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18z is back to something forming in the northeast gulf, although weak. Icon is still off the east coast.
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