cieldumort
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Above: Invest 98L entering the Bay of Campeche 8/13/25/2246z
Above: Bay of Campeche SSTs cr. Cyclonicwx.com
A tropical wave just now starting to exit the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is in a prime location to take advantage of the geography in this region, which tends to induce its own area of cyclonic rotation. While the wave itself does not yet have much in the way of a surface reflection, the Bay is furthermore in a region of very light to almost non-existent wind shear, and the waters are exceptionally warm, running above normal and in the 29.5c to 31.5 range for the most part
Global models are scarcely noticing this feature, but assigned it a "slight" and this is now Invest tagged, 98L. Given that it is landlocked and sure to impact someone onshore in addition to local navigation interests, and the fact that conditions for development belie what the Globals are putting out, we are starting a Lounge on this feature at this time.
98L is likely to continue northwesterly at 10-15MPH, which would take it inland over northeastern Mexico, or potentially deep south Texas, by Saturday.
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Tentative recon missions of 98L scheduled for Thursday and Friday in the SW Gulf
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2594
Loc: Austin, Tx
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As of this morning, 98L remains in a neutral to favorable environment for further organization, now threading the needle however between modest shear on its right and dry, subsident air on its left.
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