MikeC
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11:00AM EDT 27 October 2025 Update
NHC goes with 165MPH as of the 11AM update today. This could be conservative. Recon data supports higher, and much higher at elevated locations a few hundred feet up, which are certain to impact portions of the island they cross with gusts well over 200 MPH.
On its current forecast track, Jamaican locations within about a 20 mile radius of the eye are likely to be laid in waste, unrecognizable and unlivable for weeks, possibly months, and in some places, potentially years. Flash flooding and land/mudslides will also do a number on areas even outside of the hurricane-force wind radii. Sheltering outside of locations known to be prone to flash flooding and landslides is recommended.
Ciel
5:30AM EDT 27 October 2025 Update
2025 just hit a massive milestone with Melissa becoming the third Category 5 of the year, putting 2025 only behind 2005 for numbers of Category Fives in any one season.
Recon has found pressures down to 917mb, still falling. Recon has also found winds arguably supportive of higher than the 5AM Advisory of 160MPH, still increasing. In fact, a dropsonde found the mean wind in the lowest 150 meters to be 180 MPH. Even a little higher speed than that was recorded at the proxy surface. Thus, the 5AM Adv #24 could be conservative.
It cannot be overstated how potentially dangerous Melissa is. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in warned zones.
NHCQuote:
...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL WORSEN ON JAMAICA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern and central Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
Ciel
12:30PM EDT 26 October 2025 Update
Melissa ended her southwesterly motion this morning and is now tracking generally west to west-northwest, possibly running headstrong into a little more shear, while also having ended her overnight DMAX cycle. These external and internal forces could be resulting in what is shown on radar out of Kingston, Jamaica, to be an open eyewall and some hints of the possible beginnings of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ER). Whatever the reasons, for the time being, Melissa has stopped intensifying, but remains an extremely powerful and dangerous Category Four MAJOR.
Melissa is not a hurricane to second guess in a year that, while so far very lucky for most in terms of landfalls, has still more or less kept up with the theme of the Atlantic basin since 1995. In fact, together with 2025's previous Majors (Gabrielle, Humberto and Erin), 2025 now ties with only 2005, 2008 and 2020 for the most 50+ knot RI events in a season (4): Gabrielle, Humberto, Erin and now Melissa. h/t Kieran Bhatia
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF THIS UPDATE:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
Ciel
Original Update
Melissa is now a hurricane and has a rare forecast calling for a Category 5 major hurricane before landfall, impacts will start to pick up tomorrow and increase in intensity rapidly Monday and landfall possibly early Tuesday morning in the pre-dawn areas somewhere in Jamaica.
If the forecast is correct, it will be the strongest hurricane to impact Jamaica since records began. ;
Active Jamaica Radar Loop:
Jamaica Live Cameras
Timelapses and more from Jamiaca
Jamaica Power Outage map
Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 27 2025 10:59 AM)
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MikeC
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Jamaica's meteorology page is down (radar included). If it comes back up the recorder will go again. (The recorder is very gentle with the website, so it's probably just slammed from elsewhere.)
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cieldumort
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Melissa may now or very soon be Cat 5, shortly after the 11PM Advisory
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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ADT Adjusted T now up to 170 KTS
This is truly upper echelon territory
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